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SC

South Carolina 48 at Vanderbilt 34

VAN
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+9.8VAN 20.2%Tommy Openshaw 30 Yd Field GoalAWAY 34 - HOME 27 · Q4 5:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:57 · Tommy Openshaw 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior−6.1Home team on offense−15.2Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:23: Brison Williams 53 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +10.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:59: Shaq Roland 29 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +9.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:45: Darrius Sims 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +8.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:34: Nick Jones 7 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick) — SC win probability +11.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:57: Tommy Openshaw 30 Yd Field Goal — VAN win probability +9.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:08SC 4th & 20 at SC 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41SC 4th & 11 at SC 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:50SC 4th & 10 at VAN 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:06VAN 4th & 12 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:04VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48SC 4th & 6 at SC 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:42SC 4th & 10 at VAN 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−7.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:23VAN 4th & 7 at SC 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−12.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:41VAN 4th & 10 at SC 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:57VAN 4th & 5 at SC 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:49VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:54VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:58SC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23SC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:59SC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:45VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:34SC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:35SC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:32SC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:47VAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3492% → 91%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.7%
Dylan Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+24
7.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 24 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
7.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 14
50
+3
8.2%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-9
8.5%
Dylan Thompson sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 20
OWN 44
0
9.0%
Tyler Hull punt for 47 yds , Trey Ellis returns for no gain to the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:429% → 12%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
9.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
9.4%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+6
9.7%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 6 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
10.1%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
10.6%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
10.9%
Patton Robinette sacked by Kaiwan Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
11.3%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to Davis DudchockSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+12
11.3%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Trey Wilkins for 12 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+1
11.6%
Colby Cooke punt for 53 yds , Pharoh Cooper returns for 1 yd to the SCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2888% → 87%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
11.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 13 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
12.2%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Shaq RolandSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
12.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 25Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
12.9%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
13.2%
Tyler Hull punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:3613% → 21%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
13.4%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+29
13.9%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 29 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
14.6%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
15.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the SCaro 20Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+10
15.6%
Patton Robinette run for 10 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
16.1%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
16.7%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 8Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
21.1%
C.J. Duncan 8 Yd pass from Patton Robinette (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:4080% → 79%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
20.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+15
20.2%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
20.6%
Mike Davis run for 4 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
20.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 4 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+10
20.8%
Mike Davis run for 10 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
21.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 22 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
21.1%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
22.2%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Pharoh CooperSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
22.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Rory AndersonSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
21.0%
Elliott Fry 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:3922% → 26%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
21.9%
Jerron Seymour run for 5 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
23.2%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Steven Scheu for 8 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
24.4%
Jerron Seymour run for 13 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
25.7%
Jerron Seymour run for 2 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-4
27.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy Jerron Seymour , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 12
50
0
26.7%
Wade Freebeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 12
50
0
26.1%
Colby Cooke punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:0874% → 80%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
26.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Rory Anderson) to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+4
26.5%
Brandon Wilds run for 4 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+19
27.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 19 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
26.8%
Brandon Wilds run for 19 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.7%
Brandon Wilds run for no gain to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
27.8%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Brandon Wilds for 7 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
28.1%
Mike Davis run for 6 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
20.1%
Damiere Byrd 29 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3124% → 24%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
24.4%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Ralph Webb for 4 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
25.1%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
24.4%
Colby Cooke punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5275% → 73%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
24.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for 8 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+15
24.2%
Mike Davis run for 15 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
23.8%
Mike Davis run for 3 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
23.9%
Dylan Thompson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
25.1%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Rory AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
27.2%
Tyler Hull punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10INT TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1828% → 22%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
27.6%
Ralph Webb run for 20 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
28.7%
Ralph Webb run for 14 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
31.1%
Jerron Seymour run for 4 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+53
21.8%
Brison Williams 53 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
20.3%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5380% → 87%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Shaq Roland for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
19.6%
Mike Davis run for 6 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
19.9%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 6 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
19.3%
Mike Davis run for 5 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
19.6%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
20.4%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 5 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+9
20.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Rory Anderson for 9 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
20.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Nick Jones for no gain Nick Jones fumbled, forced by Torren McGaster, recovered by SCaro Jerell AdamsSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
20.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Mike DavisSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
21.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Corey Robinson) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+16
22.7%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 16 yds Pharoh Cooper fumbled, recovered by SCaro for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
13.0%
Shaq Roland 29 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:5078% → 82%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
21.8%
Mike Davis run for 11 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
21.0%
Mike Davis run for no gain to the SCaro 44Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
21.8%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Shaq RolandSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+15
22.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Paris Head) to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
21.1%
Shon Carson run for 2 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+13
21.5%
Shon Carson run for 13 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
20.6%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Shaq RolandSimilar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
21.0%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Damiere ByrdSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
22.2%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Shaq RolandSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
18.3%
Elliott Fry 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14FG
14 plays · 88 yds · 6:0920% → 28%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
20.4%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+31
20.6%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Steven Scheu for 31 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
22.6%
Trent Sherfield run for 25 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
24.8%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
26.6%
Wade Freebeck run for 3 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
27.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
27.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brison Williams) to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
27.7%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
28.2%
Jerron Seymour run for 2 yds to the SCaro 3Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
27.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the SCaro 2Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-5
25.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 7Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
31.8%
Tommy Openshaw 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 7
OWN 35
-15
28.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Blake Fromang) to the Vandy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:2674% → 89%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
25.8%
Mike Davis run for 6 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
25.5%
Mike Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+17
26.6%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Mike Davis for 17 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
25.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
26.5%
Dylan Thompson pass incomplete to Damiere ByrdSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+9
27.1%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 9 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+11
26.5%
Dylan Thompson pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 11 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
23.2%
Mike Davis run for 9 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
23.3%
Mike Davis run for 6 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
21.7%
Mike Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
10.6%
Nick Jones 7 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:4211% → 11%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
11.3%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Davis DudchockSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
10.7%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 1 yd to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+44
10.3%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Steven Scheu for 44 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
13.8%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 5 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
14.7%
Jerron Seymour run for 6 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.8%
Wade Freebeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
14.4%
Wade Freebeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
12.9%
Wade Freebeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
11.1%
Tommy Openshaw 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by J.T. SurrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
10.7%
Dylan Thompson run for no gain to the SCaro 29 Dylan Thompson fumbled, recovered by Vandy Vince TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1915% → 20%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
14.8%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
14.7%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
14.4%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 5 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
12.9%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
20.2%
Tommy Openshaw 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1387% → 97%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.8%
Pharoh Cooper run for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+70
10.8%
Pharoh Cooper run for 70 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.0%
Dylan Thompson 1 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4297% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
3.0%
Shon Carson run for 1 yd to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+8
2.3%
David Williams run for 8 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
2.3%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
2.2%
David Williams run for 12 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.4%
David Williams 2 Yd Run (Elliott Fry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:301% → 3%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
0.7%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Chandler Dorrell for 13 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
0.8%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Chandler Dorrell for 11 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+39
0.8%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Kris Kentera for 39 yds to the SCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
3.1%
Kris Kentera 7 Yd pass from Wade Freebeck (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:34
Nick Jones 7 Yd pass from Dylan Thompson (Elliott Fry Kick)
-11.1
TD · Q2 0:23
Brison Williams 53 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Fry Kick)
-10.3
FG · Q4 5:57
Tommy Openshaw 30 Yd Field Goal
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com