Try the model
VAN

Vanderbilt 7 at Kentucky 17

UK
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:03 · Colby Cooke punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+32.3Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:19: Patrick Towles pass intercepted for a TD Darrius Sims return for 13 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +4.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:08: Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +4.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:06: Timeout VANDERBILT, clock 01:06 — UK win probability +2.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:14: Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by TraVaughn Paschal — UK win probability +3.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:49: Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/A — VAN win probability +2.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:54VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:03VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UK 4th & 6 at VAN 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33VAN 4th & 25 at UK 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:09UK 4th & 8 at VAN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:49UK 4th & 20 at UK 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:46VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:08UK 4th & 1 at UK 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:02VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 27, down 10
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:34UK 4th & 14 at VAN 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:06VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UK 4th & 1 at VAN 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−1.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58VAN 4th & 4 at UK 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−1.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:26UK 4th & 9 at UK 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:14VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:10UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:19VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
86.6%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+14
86.6%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 14 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
86.6%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
86.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
86.6%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
86.6%
Colby Cooke punt for 63 yds, downed at the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
14 plays · 99 yds · 6:1586% → 86%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
85.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 10 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
85.9%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Jordan Swindle) 5 yards to the UK6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+6
85.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 6 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-2
85.9%
Braylon Heard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+21
85.8%
Patrick Towles run for 21 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
85.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 9 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+6
86.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 6 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.0%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
86.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 17 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
86.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charles Walker for 4 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
86.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+8
86.1%
Braylon Heard run for 8 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for no gain to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.6%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
85.6%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+24
85.7%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 24 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.2%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.3%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-6
85.2%
Wade Freebeck sacked by Alvin Dupree and Blake McClain for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
85.8%
Colby Cooke punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1085% → 85%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
85.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside (N/A) to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
85.7%
Braylon Heard run for 8 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
85.6%
Braylon Heard run for 7 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
85.9%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
85.9%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
50
-9
85.9%
Patrick Towles sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 43 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Kent Patrick Towles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+10
84.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 10 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+50
84.8%
Landon Foster punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3916% → 15%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
84.3%
Jerron Seymour run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
84.3%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 15 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
83.9%
Jerron Seymour run for 28 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
83.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
83.1%
Wade Freebeck sacked by Alvin Dupree for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 15
OPP 32
-10
84.3%
Wade Freebeck sacked by Josh Forrest and Blake McClain for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 25
OPP 42
0
84.9%
Colby Cooke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
80.4%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted for a TD Darrius Sims return for 13 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:0481% → 81%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
80.7%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
80.8%
Patrick Towles run for 9 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.2%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
81.5%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
80.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 15 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jojo KempSimilar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
81.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to T.V. Williams for 15 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
82.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
81.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
81.2%
Austin MacGinnis 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.0%
Wade Freebeck run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.3%
Colby Cooke punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
16 plays · 66 yds · 4:1381% → 85%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
80.5%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+18
80.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
50
0
81.8%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
50
+5
81.5%
Braylon Heard run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
81.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 8 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
81.9%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+19
82.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 19 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
82.4%
Braylon Heard run for 4 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
80.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 7 yds to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
80.7%
Braylon Heard run for 2 yds to the Vandy 2Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.3%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Vandy 1Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
86.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the Vandy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons, broken up by Adam ButlerSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-9
85.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Stephen Weatherly and Darreon Herring for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 28 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Kent Braylon Heard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:49
4TH & 20
OWN 28
0
84.6%
Landon Foster punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
86.0%
Ralph Webb run for 14 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
85.7%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
84.9%
Jerron Seymour run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 7
50
0
84.6%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 7
50
-6
85.1%
Wade Freebeck sacked by Ashely Lowery and Cory Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
86.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
86.2%
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
86.5%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
86.7%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+4
86.3%
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.1%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
87.2%
Braylon Heard run for 6 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
86.8%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
86.2%
Landon Foster punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
86.3%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Steven Scheu for 7 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
85.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
86.4%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete, broken up by Cory JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+4
87.3%
Colby Cooke punt for 49 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 3 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
87.1%
Mikel Horton run for 9 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.9%
Mikel Horton run for 8 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+8
88.1%
Mikel Horton run for 8 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
88.1%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-7
87.5%
Patrick Towles sacked by Nigel Bowden for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
85.9%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5113% → 10%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
87.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
87.3%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Latevius Rayford, broken up by Khalid HendersonSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+1
90.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 9Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 8
OWN 9
+5
90.3%
Colby Cooke punt for 39 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2091% → 90%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
90.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Darrell Warren for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
91.0%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
90.4%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
89.9%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
89.2%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 6 yds Latevius Rayford fumbled, forced by J.D. Harmon, recovered by Vandy N/ASimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
88.3%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+10
88.7%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
50
0
87.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
50
+6
88.0%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Chandler Dorrell for 6 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+11
88.8%
Wade Freebeck pass intercepted Marcus McWilson return for 11 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
91.0%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
90.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons, broken up by Ryan WhiteSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-10
90.4%
Patrick Towles sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 46 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Vandy Nifae Lealao , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 10:32
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+23
89.7%
Wade Freebeck pass intercepted A.J. Stamps return for 23 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
88.8%
Ralph Webb rush for 3 yards to the UK43 (Alvin Dupree;Za'Darius Smith), PENALTY VU illegal shift 5 yards to the VU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+3
90.0%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to Ralph Webb for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
91.0%
[SHOT], Braylon Heard rush for no gain to the UK44 (Ryan White), PENALTY UK holding 10 yards to the UK34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+1
90.1%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 19
OWN 35
-4
90.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 6 yds to the Kent 41 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 23
OWN 31
+6
90.0%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+8
89.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jojo Kemp for 8 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
89.9%
Landon Foster punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by TraVaughn PaschalSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to Latevius Rayford, broken up by Cody QuinnSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
94.0%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Colby Cooke punt for 41 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for no gain to the Kent 35 Demarco Robinson fumbled, recovered by Vandy Jake SealandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.3%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
91.2%
Wade Freebeck pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+17
92.0%
Wade Freebeck pass intercepted Ashely Lowery return for 17 yds to the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:2093% → 96%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
93.3%
Braylon Heard run for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
93.6%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
93.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 8 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
93.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
94.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
93.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+30
93.6%
Jojo Kemp run for 30 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.8%
Ryan Timmons run for no gain to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
95.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+2
95.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:19
Patrick Towles pass intercepted for a TD Darrius Sims return for 13 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-4.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.3
TD · Q2 0:08
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com