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TENN

Tennessee 32 at Georgia 35

UGA
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:08 · Collin Barber punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tenn 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+33.1Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +9.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 9:31: Todd Gurley run for 51 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +16.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:07: Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 31 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Justin Worley pass to Daniel Helm GOOD) — TENN win probability +24.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 4:27: Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard Jalen Hurd fumbled, recovered by Geo Josh Dawson for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +21.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +24.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:39TENN 4th & 7 at UGA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10TENN 4th & 18 at TENN 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:49TENN 4th & 23 at TENN 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:01TENN 4th & 4 at UGA 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:31TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:27TENN 4th & 5 at midfield, down 4
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:08UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:05TENN 4th & 6 at UGA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:33UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:15UGA 4th & 22 at UGA 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−5.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:37TENN 4th & 20 at TENN 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:45UGA 4th & 3 at TENN 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−4.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:09TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:38UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−4.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30UGA 4th & 3 at TENN 26, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%−1.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−15.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 5:04TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:07UGA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:45UGA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:17UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18TENN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:31UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:07TENN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:14TENN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.9 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%−1.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:1114% → 15%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
86.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 8 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
86.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
86.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
85.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
85.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 14 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
85.7%
Marlin Lane run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 32Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+4
85.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 4 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
85.3%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
85.2%
Aaron Medley 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:2785% → 84%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.2%
Todd Gurley run for 4 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
85.0%
Hutson Mason run for 3 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
84.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Todd Gurley for 2 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
84.6%
Hutson Mason run for 3 yds to the Geo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
84.5%
Todd Gurley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 31Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-5
84.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 26Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+8
84.1%
Todd Gurley run for 8 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
83.9%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Shakenneth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
83.7%
Collin Barber punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5616% → 20%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
83.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Devrin Young for 6 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+17
83.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 17 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
83.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 24 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
82.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
82.6%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marlin LaneSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+14
82.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 7 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the Geo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
82.3%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
82.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Geo 1Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5981% → 80%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
80.8%
Todd Gurley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 27Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
80.3%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Jeb BlazevichSimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+9
80.0%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Todd Gurley for 9 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
79.9%
Collin Barber punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4520% → 21%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
79.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-7
79.6%
Justin Worley sacked by Damian Swann for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 8Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+4
79.3%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+29
78.7%
Matt Darr punt for 49 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 29 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:5879% → 82%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
78.7%
Todd Gurley run for 16 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
78.7%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 7 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+6
78.3%
Todd Gurley run for 6 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.0%
Hutson Mason run for 3 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0120% → 20%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.5%
Worley, Justin pass complete to Hurd, Jalen for 4 yards to the TENNESSEE29, PENALTY GEORGIA holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
80.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
80.3%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-10
80.1%
Justin Worley sacked by Jordan Jenkins for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
80.4%
Matt Darr punt for 54 yds , Reggie Davis returns for no gain to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:3380% → 81%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.9%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for no gain to the Geo 24Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
79.7%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Sony Michel for 16 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
80.5%
Hutson Mason pass intercepted Todd Kelly Jr. return for no gain to the Geo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4422% → 21%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
78.1%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
78.0%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Malone, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+3
78.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 3 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
78.8%
Matt Darr punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:1079% → 83%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
79.4%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Michael Bennett, broken up by Todd Kelly Jr.Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+18
79.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 18 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
79.4%
Todd Gurley run for 3 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+22
79.2%
Todd Gurley run for 22 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
80.2%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+17
80.0%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 17 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
80.5%
Nick Chubb run for 9 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+6
80.0%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
79.9%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Owen Williams) to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.8%
Todd Gurley run for 2 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.1%
Todd Gurley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4419% → 18%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
81.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 8 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
81.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
81.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 3 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-5
81.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Ethan Wolf) to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+7
81.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-3
81.3%
Marlin Lane run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+3
81.9%
Matt Darr punt for 53 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 3 yds to the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:0381% → 89%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
81.0%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Todd Gurley for 8 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
81.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Taylor Maxey for 6 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
81.0%
Todd Gurley run for 2 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
80.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Reggie Davis for 8 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
81.7%
Sony Michel run for 9 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+7
82.4%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.1%
Hutson Mason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
81.9%
Todd Gurley run for 11 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
82.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Todd Gurley for 11 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
82.6%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+20
89.1%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Nick Chubb for 20 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 0:5212% → 22%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
87.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 18 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.7%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Malone, broken up by J.J. GreenSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
87.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 19 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
86.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez North, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
86.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 5 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+18
86.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 18 yds to the Geo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
77.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0681% → 78%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
80.8%
Hutson Mason run for 12 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
81.5%
Hutson Mason sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
78.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2079% → 80%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
79.1%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 13 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.3%
Hutson Mason pass intercepted Cameron Sutton return for no gain to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5822% → 23%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
78.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+10
76.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
76.1%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
76.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 5
50
0
75.3%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 5
50
+1
77.0%
Matt Darr punt for 35 yds , Reggie Davis returns for 1 yd to the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1278% → 78%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
77.9%
Hutson Mason run for 2 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
77.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for no gain to the Geo 18Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
76.1%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Chris ConleySimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
77.9%
Collin Barber punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0025% → 22%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
75.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
50
0
74.9%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Malone, broken up by Corey MooreSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 8
50
+2
76.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jashon Robertson for 2 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
77.6%
Matt Darr punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2279% → 77%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
79.0%
Todd Gurley run for 1 yd to the Geo 7Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+3
78.7%
Todd Gurley run for 3 yds to the Geo 10Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
77.8%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Chris Conley, broken up by LaDarrell McNeilSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 6
OWN 10
+4
77.2%
Collin Barber punt for 53 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5924% → 27%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
75.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Josh Malone for 4 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-2
74.4%
Pig Howard run for 8 yds to the GEORGIA 47 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
75.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+14
78.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Josh Malone for 14 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
73.9%
Josh Malone run for 20 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
72.4%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+8
72.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-2
73.0%
Marlin Lane run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 23 Marlin Lane fumbled, recovered by Geo Josh DawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:5578% → 75%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
78.3%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
78.4%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
78.5%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
79.1%
Hutson Mason run for 7 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
80.1%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
50
+4
80.4%
Todd Gurley run for 4 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-9
80.6%
Todd Gurley run for 1 yd to the Geo 45 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
78.3%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 45 Nick Chubb fumbled, recovered by Geo Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 15
OWN 45
-7
76.8%
Hutson Mason sacked by Curt Maggitt for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 38Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 22
OWN 38
0
75.2%
Collin Barber punt for 53 yds, downed at the Tenn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2425% → 23%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
75.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
75.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-14
74.1%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Ramik Wilson for a loss of 14 yards to the Tenn 10 TENNESSEE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nathan Peterman) to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
76.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+8
77.0%
Matt Darr punt for 51 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 8 yds to the Geo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5080% → 77%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
79.5%
Quayvon Hicks run for 2 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
79.3%
Todd Gurley run for 5 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
79.2%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Chris ConleySimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
77.3%
Collin Barber punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:3026% → 25%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
74.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
75.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Pig Howard for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+5
76.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
72.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
73.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
74.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
75.5%
Matt Darr punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3876% → 93%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
76.4%
Todd Gurley run for 7 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
77.5%
Todd Gurley run for 4 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
76.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Brandon Kublanow) to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+6
76.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 6 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+14
76.2%
Todd Gurley run for 14 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
92.7%
Todd Gurley run for 51 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:1310% → 34%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
90.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 16 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
90.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 5 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+31
65.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 31 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Justin Worley pass to Daniel Helm GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:1275% → 75%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+26
75.0%
Todd Gurley run for 26 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
77.6%
Hutson Mason run for 7 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
78.0%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Reggie Davis for 6 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
79.5%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-1
77.6%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 13
50
-1
75.4%
Hutson Mason sacked by Curt Maggitt for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
74.5%
Collin Barber punt for 50 yds, downed at the Tenn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0528% → 7%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
71.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
93.0%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard Jalen Hurd fumbled, recovered by Geo Josh Dawson for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:469% → 33%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
91.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 4 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-11
91.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jashon Robertson) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+24
93.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 24 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
93.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 25 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
92.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Geo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Justin Worley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q4 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 31END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:2589% → 93%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
89.2%
Todd Gurley run for 6 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
90.6%
Todd Gurley run for 5 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
92.7%
Todd Gurley run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-4
93.0%
Todd Gurley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+8
91.2%
Todd Gurley run for 8 yds to the Tenn 26 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+4
93.4%
Todd Gurley run for 4 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 6 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
-24.7
TD · Q4 8:07
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 31 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Justin Worley pass to Daniel Helm GOOD)
-24.3
FUMBLE · Q4 4:27
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard Jalen Hurd fumbled, recovered by Geo Josh Dawson for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)
+21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com