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NMSU

New Mexico State 7 at LSU 63

LSU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:52 · Steven Witkowski punt for 48 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 12 yds to the LSU 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+41.2Home team on offense+15.1Score differential+9.9Blowout margin+0.5Garbage-time factor+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:19: Tyler Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Kendell Beckwith return for 29 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:52: Leonard Fournette run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:06: Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 27 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:14: Andrew Allen run for 79 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:49: Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:25NMSU 4th & 2 at LSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31NMSU 4th & 6 at LSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:47NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:07NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 14 at LSU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:45LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:16NMSU 4th & 14 at LSU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:52NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:48NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:40NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 45, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:08LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 24, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:47NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    -0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:07LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:19LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:52LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:06LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:14NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:49LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:56LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:18LSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:48LSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:40LSU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.3%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
99.3%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tre'Davious White return for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.2%
Anthony Jennings run for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+6
99.2%
Kenny Hilliard run for 6 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.2%
Anthony Jennings run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line Anthony Jennings fumbled, forced by Kawe Johnson, recovered by NMxSt Dalton Herrington , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.2%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+7
99.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Steven Witkowski punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-9
99.1%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+4
99.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 4 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
99.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 57 yds, downed at the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+14
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 14 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-1
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Brandon Betancourt for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Steven Witkowski punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Anthony Jennings pass intercepted Kawe Johnson return for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
98.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 15 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
98.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+4
98.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 4 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
98.6%
Maxwell Johnson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
98.6%
Terrence Magee run for 8 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
98.6%
Terrence Magee run for 8 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Anthony Jennings pass intercepted Cassius Corley return for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.5%
LSU Penalty, offside defense (N/A) to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+3
98.5%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua Bowen, broken up by Jamal AdamsSimilar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
98.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 1 yd, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
98.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+9
98.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
98.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+7
98.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Trey Quinn for 7 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.6%
Terrence Magee run for 11 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Dean for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
98.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 43 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 5 yds to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.4%
Kenny Hilliard run for 3 yds to the LSU 40 Kenny Hilliard fumbled, forced by Kawe Johnson, recovered by NMxSt Stephen MeredithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · -26 yds · 0:502% → 1%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-12
98.3%
Adam Shapiro run for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 34 Adam Shapiro fumbled, forced by Danielle Hunter, recovered by NMxSt N/ASimilar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 36
OWN 34
+29
98.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Kendell Beckwith return for 29 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:191% → 1%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 9 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
98.6%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.6%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
98.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
98.6%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-5
98.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
98.6%
Steven Witkowski punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
98.6%
Terrence Magee run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+2
98.6%
Terrence Magee run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
98.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+2
98.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 48 , Teldrick Morgan returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
98.3%
Andrew Allen run for 14 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
98.3%
Marquette Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
98.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua Bowen, broken up by Ronald MartinSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-5
98.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+2
98.2%
Marquette Washington run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
98.2%
Steven Witkowski punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:3698% → 99%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
98.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
98.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+7
98.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
98.4%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
98.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
98.2%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
98.2%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
98.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Ronald MartinSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Marquette Washington run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
99.0%
Steven Witkowski punt for 48 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 12 yds to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1099% → 100%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
99.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 22 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
99.3%
Darrel Williams run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 27 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:450% → 1%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.8%
Marquette Washington run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-5
99.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+79
99.0%
Andrew Allen run for 79 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
99.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 33 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 22 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
99.3%
Brandon Harris run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Andrew Allen run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.8%
Marquette Washington run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Marquette Washington run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 3 Marquette Washington fumbled, forced by Davon Godchaux, recovered by LSU Jalen Mills , return for 36 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Melvin Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
99.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+23
99.8%
Terrence Magee run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
99.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 8 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+8
99.8%
Terrence Magee run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 10 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26FUMBLE
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 23 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+5
99.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.8%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-4
99.8%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 26 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by LSU D.J. WelterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.9%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+19
99.9%
Miquel James run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+27
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 27 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Terrence Magee run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Brandon Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Rayvean Moore, broken up by Rickey JeffersonSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Steven Witkowski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+26
99.9%
Kenny Hilliard run for 26 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Miquel James run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+21
99.9%
Brandon Harris run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Kenny Hilliard run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Andrew Allen run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Andrew Allen run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-1
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Steven Witkowski punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-5
99.9%
LSU Penalty, false start (N/A) to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
LSU Penalty, false start (N/A) to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+4
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+11
99.9%
Brad Kragthorpe pass complete to Darrel Williams for 11 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 3
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
LSU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 46 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35 Teldrick Morgan fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Teldrick MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
100.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+7
100.0%
Steven Witkowski punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 16 , Trey Quinn returns for 7 yds to the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 33END OF GAME
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
100.0%
Kenny Hilliard run for 5 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+7
100.0%
Kenny Hilliard run for 7 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Kenny Hilliard run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Josh Gibbs) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
100.0%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
100.0%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
100.0%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:52
Leonard Fournette run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 3:14
Andrew Allen run for 79 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
-0.8
TD · Q1 0:19
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Kendell Beckwith return for 29 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com