Try the model
ALA

Alabama 17 at Ole Miss 23

MISS
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:42: Cyrus Jones 17 Yd Fumble Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +12.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:20: Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +17.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 5:29: Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 34 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +39.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:54: Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher BLOCKED) — MISS win probability +28.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:31: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19 — MISS win probability +15.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:17MISS 4th & 10 at ALA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47MISS 4th & 11 at ALA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:08MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:07ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:30MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:14ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:11MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:44ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:44MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:51ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:35ALA 4th & 20 at MISS 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:54ALA 4th & 18 at MISS 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−4.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−10.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00MISS 4th & 5 at ALA 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:31ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:00MISS 4th & 15 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:24ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:44ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:42ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:20MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:29MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2335% → 36%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
34.9%
Bo Wallace run for 10 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
35.2%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
35.3%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody Core, broken up by Cyrus JonesSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
35.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
35.5%
Gary Wunderlich 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:1464% → 62%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
35.7%
Blake Sims run for 8 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
35.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 6 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
36.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
36.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 3 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
36.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
36.8%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+5
37.1%
Blake Sims run for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
37.8%
Adam Griffith 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3338% → 40%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
38.0%
Quincy Adeboyejo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+9
38.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 9 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
38.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
39.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+15
39.7%
Bo Wallace run for 15 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
40.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 10 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
40.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 12 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.8%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
41.2%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-1
41.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Mark Dodson for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
40.1%
Andrew Fletcher 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2360% → 59%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
40.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 20 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
39.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
39.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
39.9%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
40.8%
JK Scott punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5141% → 40%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
40.6%
Wallace, Bo pass complete to Sanders, Vince for 2 yards to the OLEMISS22, PENALTY OLEMISS ineligible downfield on pass (Conyers, Robert) 5 yards to the OLEMISS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
40.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
40.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
40.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
40.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds, downed at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5359% → 58%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
41.4%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
41.6%
Blake Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
42.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 10 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
40.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Arie Kouandjio) to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
42.1%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Christion JonesSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
42.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Brian Vogler, broken up by Cody PrewittSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+13
43.1%
T.J. Yeldon run for 13 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
41.7%
JK Scott punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1543% → 42%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
42.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 16 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cyrus Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
42.9%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-3
43.5%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
42.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete, broken up by D.J. PettwaySimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
41.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 47 yds, downed at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0256% → 54%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.6%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
43.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
44.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Chris Black for 9 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
43.4%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
42.3%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
42.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-5
44.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
45.8%
JK Scott punt for 49 yds, downed at the Miss 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4946% → 45%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
45.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 12 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
45.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
45.0%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 40 yds , Christion Jones returns for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:1555% → 64%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
45.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Chris Black for 10 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
43.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 9 yds to the OLEMISS 49 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jalston Fowler) to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 11
OWN 41
+12
44.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 12 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
43.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 22 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
42.3%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+7
42.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
42.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
42.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.0%
Blake Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3441% → 37%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
40.6%
Laquon Treadwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
38.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-3
39.8%
Bo Wallace sacked by Xzavier Dickson for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
36.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4764% → 63%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.5%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
37.2%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
37.5%
JK Scott punt for 64 yds, downed at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-17
25.5%
Cyrus Jones 17 Yd Fumble Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3326% → 25%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
24.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15MISSED FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 6:2073% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
26.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
26.4%
Blake Sims run for 1 yd to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
25.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
24.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
24.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
23.7%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
23.7%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
22.7%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Jalston FowlerSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+9
23.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 9 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
22.3%
Blake Sims run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 16
OPP 30
0
21.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 16
OPP 30
-4
22.1%
Blake Sims sacked by Bryon Bennett for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+51
23.6%
Adam Griffith 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5524% → 45%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
23.5%
Bo Wallace sacked by Xzavier Dickson for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+50
22.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 50 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
26.9%
Bo Wallace run for 4 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
44.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0663% → 72%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
36.7%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+8
36.3%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+53
36.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 53 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
31.9%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-9
31.9%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 24 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (O.J. Howard) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 15
OPP 24
-5
34.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Leon Brown) to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 20
OPP 29
+2
33.2%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+44
28.4%
Adam Griffith 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:3530% → 28%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
30.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
30.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
29.6%
Bo Wallace run for 8 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Trey DePriestSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
30.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
32.8%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
33.4%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+7
31.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 7 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
31.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince Sanders, broken up by Jarran ReedSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
28.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:2074% → 77%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
26.0%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari Cooper, broken up by Trae ElstonSimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+24
25.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 24 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
23.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
23.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
22.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
21.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
20.9%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Christion JonesSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
21.2%
Blake Sims pass incomplete, broken up by Deterrian ShackelfordSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
23.4%
JK Scott punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:2629% → 25%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Cyrus JonesSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
28.5%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
27.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 14 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.0%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
27.9%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
26.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Markell Pack for 18 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
30.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
28.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 15
50
0
26.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon Treadwell, broken up by Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 15
50
0
24.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3078% → 76%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
21.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
21.9%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Jalston FowlerSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+7
23.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 1
OWN 10
-5
23.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 5Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+9
24.0%
JK Scott punt for 60 yds , Markell Pack returns for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:4626% → 66%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
25.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 4
50
+16
26.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 16 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
66.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 34 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:0667% → 94%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
66.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 9 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+13
66.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 13 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
67.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
67.3%
Jeremy Liggins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24INT
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:2313% → 19%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
86.9%
Blake Sims run for 3 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+17
87.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 17 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
86.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 8 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+30
84.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 30 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
78.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-10
77.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (O.J. Howard) to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
81.1%
Blake Sims pass intercepted, touchback. Senquez Golson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3196% → 96%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:29
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 34 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+39.9
TD · Q4 2:54
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher BLOCKED)
+28.6
TD · Q3 7:20
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com