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LSU

LSU 7 at Auburn 41

AUB
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:43 · Daniel Carlson punt for 45 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 10 yds to the LSU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense+13.2Pregame prior+15.8Score differential+6.6Garbage-time factor+4.4Blowout margin−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:38: Nick Marshall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +4.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:24: Kenny Hilliard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:27: Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:12: Nick Marshall run for 29 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +4.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 7:33: Daniel Carlson 42 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:23LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16AUB 4th & 5 at LSU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:53LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:56AUB 4th & 9 at LSU 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:40LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 26, down 17
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:43AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:25LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:53LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:41AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:45LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:33AUB 4th & 6 at LSU 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:17LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:44LSU 4th & 7 at AUB 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:09AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 49, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:07LSU 4th & 6 at AUB 24, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:05LSU 4th & 10 at AUB 11, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:05AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24LSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:27AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:12AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:44AUB Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3324% → 24%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.9%
Terrence Magee run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
75.9%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 28 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by LSU Connor NeighborsSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
75.7%
Terrence Magee run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
75.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 48 yds , Quan Bray returns for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:5976% → 75%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
75.6%
Nick Marshall run for 18 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
75.6%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+19
75.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 19 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
75.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
75.4%
Quan Bray run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
75.3%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
75.3%
Daniel Carlson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1925% → 25%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.2%
Terrence Magee run for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
74.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
75.1%
Terrence Magee run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
75.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 33 yds, downed at the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:3675% → 77%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
74.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 19 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
75.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-9
75.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 1 yd to the Aub 46 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (D'haquille Williams) to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+56
77.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 56 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5624% → 23%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
76.2%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-2
75.9%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
76.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Ethan Pocic) to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
76.6%
Brandon Harris run for no gain to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
76.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:0378% → 82%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
77.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+38
77.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Sammie Coates for 38 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
78.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+9
77.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 9 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.7%
Nick Marshall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0419% → 24%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
81.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
80.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+52
80.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 52 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.0%
Kenny Hilliard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:4077% → 85%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
77.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 1 yd to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
77.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille Williams, broken up by Kendell BeckwithSimilar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+26
76.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 26 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
78.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 34 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
78.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
78.2%
Marshall, Nick pass incomplete to Uzomah, C.J., PENALTY LSU personal foul (Godchaux, Davon) 6 yards to the LSU5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
78.2%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Shon Coleman) to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
78.2%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2917% → 16%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.4%
Terrence Magee run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
83.2%
Terrence Magee run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
84.2%
Jamie Keehn punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4485% → 87%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
85.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+15
85.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 15 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.2%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
86.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
86.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
87.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
86.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
86.5%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0815% → 14%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
85.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
85.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
85.8%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+33
85.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the AUBURN 36 LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Aub 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5088% → 89%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
88.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
88.5%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
88.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 1
50
-5
88.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+10
88.5%
Daniel Carlson punt for 45 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 10 yds to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:1114% → 13%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.4%
Brandon Harris run for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
86.8%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Quinn, Trey, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul (Ruffin, Nick) 15 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Connor NeighborsSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
86.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
86.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John Diarse, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
87.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:4990% → 95%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
89.6%
Nick Marshall sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+29
89.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 29 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
90.2%
Nick Marshall run for 15 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
90.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 11 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
90.4%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
90.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Cameron Artis-PayneSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+29
95.1%
Nick Marshall run for 29 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15END OF HALF
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:017% → 8%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
92.9%
Brandon Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
93.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+14
93.1%
Darrel Williams run for 14 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
93.0%
Harris, Brandon pass complete to Williams, Darrel for 4 yards to the AUBURN48, PENALTY LSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
93.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+32
93.6%
Brandon Harris run for 32 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jonathon MincySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1095% → 95%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
94.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
94.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, broken up by Rashard RobinsonSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
94.8%
Daniel Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:365% → 4%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
94.7%
Brandon Harris sacked by Johnathan Ford for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
95.0%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+6
95.2%
Brandon Harris run for 6 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+13
95.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 44 yds , Quan Bray returns for 13 yds to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0596% → 99%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
96.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
96.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 6
50
+21
96.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 21 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
96.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+1
96.4%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
99.4%
Daniel Carlson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-3
99.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Terrence MageeSimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 13
OWN 21
+2
99.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 48 yds , Quan Bray returns for 2 yds to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Nick Marshall run for no gain to the Aub 35 Nick Marshall fumbled, recovered by LSU Kendell BeckwithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:361% → 0%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.4%
Kenny Hilliard run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to John Diarse for 3 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jonathon MincySimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+6
99.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travis Dickson for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
99.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 19 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
99.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Marcus Davis, broken up by Ronald MartinSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Daniel Carlson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.8%
Kenny Hilliard run for 4 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+27
99.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to John Diarse for 37 yds to the AUBURN 45 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Lamar Louis) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.8%
Anthony Jennings run for 9 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.8%
Jennings, Anthony pass incomplete to Dupre, Malachi, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Reed, Trovon) 15 yards to the AUBURN28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Trey Quinn for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+6
99.8%
Kenny Hilliard run for 6 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 6
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Trovon ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 5:15100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.8%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 10 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.8%
Nick Marshall run for 15 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
Corey Grant run for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+16
99.8%
Corey Grant run for 16 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+10
99.9%
Nick Marshall run for 10 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Corey Grant run for no gain to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Corey Grant run for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+24
99.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Stephen Roberts) to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
99.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 40 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 24 Darrel Williams fumbled, recovered by LSU Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 14
OPP 24
-2
99.9%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+15
99.9%
Jennings, Anthony pass incomplete to Diarse, John (Therezie, Robenson), PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Therezie, Robenson) 15 yards to the AUBURN11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
Terrence Magee run for 1 yd to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-1
99.9%
Terrence Magee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.9%
Roc Thomas run for 1 yd to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Stanton Truitt for 1 yd to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+22
100.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 22 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
100.0%
Roc Thomas run for 11 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
100.0%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
100.0%
Roc Thomas run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:27
Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 2:12
Nick Marshall run for 29 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q1 3:38
Nick Marshall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com