Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 14 at Kentucky 48

UK
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:54 · Justin Manton punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+34.2Home team on offense−6.2Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−1.9Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +4.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:52: Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 83 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +4.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:47: Pete Thomas pass intercepted for a TD Josh Forrest return for 29 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +3.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q2 7:47: UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (1 Yards) to the LaMon 2 — UK win probability +4.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:17: Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:30UK 4th & 4 at ULM 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:24ULM 4th & 19 at ULM 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:25UK 4th & 12 at ULM 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23UK 4th & 21 at ULM 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:43ULM 4th & 6 at UK 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:46UK 4th & 6 at UK 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:54ULM 4th & 9 at UK 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:43ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:19ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13UK 4th & 5 at ULM 37, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%−0.5
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 19 at ULM 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:08UK 4th & 1 at ULM 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−1.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:08UK 4th & 27 at ULM 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:03ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:42ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 46, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:07ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 36, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:10UK 4th & 9 at ULM 13, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:20UK 4th & 9 at ULM 49, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:47ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 21, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:09UK 4th & 11 at UK 49, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:42ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:52UK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:47UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:17UK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:49UK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:07UK Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1793% → 92%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
92.7%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+5
92.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 5 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
92.4%
Austin MacGinnis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.4%
[SHOT], PENALTY ULM false start (Sutton Jr., F) 5 yards to the ULM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
92.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 4 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
92.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
92.4%
Pete Thomas sacked by Alvin Dupree and Josh Forrest for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
92.4%
Justin Manton punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
92.2%
Stanley Williams run for 19 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
92.3%
Braylon Heard run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
92.2%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
92.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Rob'Donovan LewisSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
92.2%
Landon Foster punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:358% → 10%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
91.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
91.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 4 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+33
92.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 33 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
91.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 7 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-2
91.8%
Tyler Cain run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+12
91.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 12 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
91.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
91.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+14
91.8%
[SHOT], Thomas, Pete pass incomplete to Holley, Ajalen (Blake McClain), PENALTY UK personal foul (Tra. Paschal) 14 yards to the UK14, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
91.8%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
90.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:1390% → 89%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
90.3%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-1
90.5%
Braylon Heard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
90.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+5
90.2%
Landon Foster punt 50 yards to the ULM9, fair catch by Ceaser, Rashon, PENALTY ULM IL 5 yards to the UK46, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
90.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 12 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
90.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 18 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons, broken up by Lorenzo JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
90.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-11
90.6%
Patrick Towles sacked by Cody Robinson and Michael Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the LaMon 35 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 21
OPP 35
+52
88.7%
Austin MacGinnis 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:4011% → 12%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
88.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
88.7%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
88.7%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 4 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.6%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
88.7%
Brayle Brown run for 13 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
88.6%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 16 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.4%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
88.5%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
88.6%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Za'Darius SmithSimilar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
87.6%
Justin Manton 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Alvin Dupree N/A return for no gain to the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
87.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 5 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
87.7%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
87.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
87.8%
[SHOT], Jojo Kemp rush for 15 yards to the UK49 (Backus, Justin), PENALTY UK holding (Zach West) 10 yards to the UK24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+22
87.6%
Jojo Kemp pass intercepted Hunter Kissinger return for 22 yds to the Kent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
84.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
83.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 10 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+9
84.2%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 44 Jojo Kemp fumbled, recovered by Kent Jojo Kemp , return for 9 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
83.6%
Landon Foster punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
81.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 3 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
81.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 2 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+8
81.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 8 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+36
81.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 36 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
80.7%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
80.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler Cain, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-1
80.8%
Pete Thomas sacked by Alvin Dupree for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
81.2%
Justin Manton punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:5178% → 83%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
78.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 5 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+83
83.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 83 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5817% → 14%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
82.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+29
86.2%
Pete Thomas pass intercepted for a TD Josh Forrest return for 29 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
90.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (1 Yards) to the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
89.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Pete ThomasSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 18
OWN 9
0
90.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 18
OWN 9
+1
90.4%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+8
90.5%
Justin Manton punt for 42 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 8 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1490% → 90%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
90.3%
Patrick Towles run for 9 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
90.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 3 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
90.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 12 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
90.4%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake Bone, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Williams, J) 15 yards to the ULM5, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
90.4%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 17 yds · 2:4911% → 11%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
89.1%
Tyler Cain run for 3 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
89.3%
Tyler Cain run for 9 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-11
89.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 4 yds to the LaMon 47 UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 21
OWN 32
+7
89.5%
Pete Thomas run for 7 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+8
89.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 8 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+2
88.9%
Pete Thomas run for 2 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 4
OWN 49
-7
89.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5691% → 89%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.5%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
90.5%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+3
90.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 3 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
89.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
88.7%
Pete Thomas sacked by Cory Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
89.0%
Pete Thomas sacked by Za'Darius Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
89.6%
[SHOT], Thomas, Pete rush for 3 yards to the ULM22 (Alvin Dupree), PENALTY UK offside (Dorian Baker) 5 yards to the ULM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
89.5%
Pete Thomas sacked by Cory Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+12
89.8%
Justin Manton punt for 39 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 12 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · -6 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
90.5%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
90.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+10
89.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 10 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
89.7%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons, broken up by Cody RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
90.6%
[SHOT], Patrick Towles rush for no gain to the ULM32 (Cagins, Tevyn;Lewis, R), PENALTY UK illegal block (Dorian Baker) 10 yards to the ULM42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
90.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 20
OPP 42
-7
89.7%
Patrick Towles sacked by Cordero Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 27
OPP 49
0
88.9%
Landon Foster punt for 35 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for no gain to the LaMon 14 Rashon Ceaser fumbled, recovered by LaMon Rashon CeaserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
89.3%
Brayle Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 11 Brayle Brown fumbled, recovered by LaMon Brayle BrownSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 13
OWN 11
-5
89.4%
Brayle Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 7 Brayle Brown fumbled, recovered by LaMon Brayle BrownSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+6
90.0%
Brayle Brown run for 6 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+21
90.2%
Justin Manton punt for 38 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 21 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:0090% → 96%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
90.4%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+11
90.4%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-8
90.4%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 18
OPP 21
+21
96.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:245% → 2%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
95.0%
Brayle Brown run for no gain to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
95.1%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+36
98.0%
Brayle Brown pass intercepted for a TD Marcus McWilson return for 36 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+19
97.9%
Justin Manton punt for 37 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 19 yds to the Kent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3498% → 100%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.4%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+58
99.8%
Stanley Williams run for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.6%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 6 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
99.6%
Pete Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Justin Manton punt for 34 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for no gain to the Kent 35 Demarco Robinson fumbled, recovered by Kent Demarco Robinson , return for 5 yds to the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 23 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+17
99.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 10 yds to the LaMon 14 Jojo Kemp fumbled, forced by Cody Robinson, recovered by Kent T.V. Williams for a 1ST down , return for 17 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-5
99.8%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Cole Mosier) 5 yards to the ULM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+4
99.8%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
99.9%
Austin MacGinnis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28FUMBLE
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 9 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-4
99.9%
Pete Thomas sacked by TraVaughn Paschal for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+14
99.9%
Pete Thomas run for 14 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Pete Thomas run for 5 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+12
99.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 10 yds Kenzee Jackson fumbled, forced by Tyler Brause, recovered by Kent Regie Meant , return to the 50 yard line , return for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
50
-3
99.9%
Reese Phillips run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 49 Reese Phillips fumbled, recovered by Kent Reese PhillipsSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Reese Phillips run for 2 yds to the LaMon 49 Reese Phillips fumbled, forced by Jacob Tyson, recovered by KentSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Reese Phillips pass incomplete to T.V. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Landon Foster punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Justin Manton punt for 42 yds , Ryan Timmons returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-2
99.9%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-2
99.9%
Josh Clemons run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Landon Foster punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Nathan Meadors Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
100.0%
Nathan Meadors Jr. run for 10 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Nathan Meadors Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
99.9%
Nathan Meadors Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Nathan Meadors Jr. run for 8 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.9%
Nathan Meadors Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:17
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 8:52
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 83 yds for a TD UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q1 0:00
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com