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TENN

Tennessee 3 at Ole Miss 34

MISS
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:51 · Matt Darr punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+33.4Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:08: Vince Sanders 39 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +9.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:40: Bo Wallace pass complete to Mark Dodson for 6 yds to the Tenn 29 — MISS win probability +2.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:51: Jaylen Walton 7 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:04: Gary Wunderlich 34 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +3.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:50: Evan Engram 28 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 11 of 13TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 14:02MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:51MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:51MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:22TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:23MISS 4th & 10 at TENN 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:31TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:28MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:40TENN 4th & 2 at MISS 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:50MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:27TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 8:21MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 6:17TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:10MISS 4th & 1 at TENN 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−0.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:20TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:00MISS 4th & 4 at TENN 35, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 11:58TENN 4th & 19 at MISS 37, down 11
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 9:18MISS 4th & 8 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:25MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  20. Q3 3:50TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  21. Q3 2:04MISS 4th & 10 at TENN 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−4.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:53MISS 4th & 10 at TENN 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.9
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:12TENN 4th & 1 at MISS 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:08MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:51MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:50MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:31MISS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4885% → 85%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
84.8%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
84.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
84.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
84.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 60 yds, downed at the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0415% → 16%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
84.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 6 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+13
84.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 13 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
84.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
84.1%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
84.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marlin Lane for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
83.9%
Matt Darr punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2984% → 84%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
83.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
83.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
83.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+4
83.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 51 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:2317% → 17%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
83.2%
Justin Worley sacked by C.J. Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+19
83.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 19 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
82.8%
Justin Worley pass intercepted Mike Hilton return for no gain to the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2483% → 82%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
83.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 1 yd to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-3
83.0%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+1
82.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
82.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5818% → 18%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
82.0%
Von Pearson run for 3 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-6
81.9%
Justin Worley sacked by Carlos Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
82.2%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 13
OWN 41
-2
82.3%
Matt Darr punt for 46 yds , Markell Pack returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4782% → 81%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
82.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+36
81.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 36 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.4%
Bo Wallace run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
82.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
82.1%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
82.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
81.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
81.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 32 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for no gain to the Tenn 40 OLE MISS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Mike Hilton) to the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4419% → 20%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 2 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
80.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
80.1%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
80.4%
Matt Darr punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5781% → 80%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-7
80.4%
Bo Wallace sacked by Corey Vereen for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 17
OWN 9
0
79.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 17
OWN 9
+11
79.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 11 yds to the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:4022% → 23%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
78.5%
Justin Worley sacked by Deterrian Shackelford for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+24
79.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 24 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
78.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
77.6%
Justin Worley sacked by Denzel Nkemdiche for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+11
77.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 11 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+4
77.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 4 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
76.6%
Aaron Medley 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3077% → 75%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
77.2%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
76.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-9
76.1%
Bo Wallace sacked by A.J. Johnson and Corey Vereen for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
75.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 44 yds , Jacob Carter returns for no gain to the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1325% → 25%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
74.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
74.7%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
75.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
74.8%
Matt Darr punt for 26 yds, downed at the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5975% → 74%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
75.4%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
74.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
74.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
73.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 67 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 6 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5826% → 28%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
74.3%
Worley, Justin pass incomplete to Howard, Pig, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Kerbyson, Kyler) 9 yards to the TENNESSEE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 19
OWN 9
0
73.9%
Justus Pickett run for no gain to the Tenn 9Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+9
73.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 9 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
73.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Alex Ellis for 9 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
72.3%
Matt Darr punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:0272% → 81%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
72.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-1
72.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+28
71.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 28 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
80.8%
Vince Sanders 39 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5922% → 21%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
78.1%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+18
78.7%
Justin Worley pass intercepted Senquez Golson return for 18 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:4981% → 88%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
80.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Mark Dodson for 6 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
80.8%
Bo Wallace run for 3 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
79.9%
Jeremy Liggins run for no gain to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+19
79.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 19 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.8%
Jaylen Walton 7 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2113% → 13%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
86.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-6
87.0%
Justin Worley sacked by Marquis Haynes and Robert Nkemdiche for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+7
87.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
87.5%
Matt Darr punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:1288% → 87%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
88.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
88.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 12 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
88.9%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
88.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
87.7%
Bo Wallace run for 5 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+52
87.2%
Gary Wunderlich 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 2:5214% → 12%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 10 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
85.7%
Justin Worley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+18
86.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.7%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+17
86.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 17 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.3%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-9
85.5%
Josh Malone run for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 19
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
88.0%
Matt Darr punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:3288% → 88%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
87.8%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
87.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+14
87.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
87.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
88.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
50
0
88.9%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 8
50
0
88.4%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 8
50
0
87.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0011% → 12%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
88.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+1
87.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
88.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 20 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
87.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Justus Pickett for 3 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+1
87.8%
Justin Worley pass intercepted Senquez Golson return for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3589% → 88%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
89.2%
Bo Wallace run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
89.3%
Bo Wallace sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-4
89.0%
Bo Wallace sacked by A.J. Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
88.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds , Jacob Carter returns for no gain to the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2511% → 9%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
89.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 5 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
88.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-6
89.8%
Justin Worley sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 7 Justin Worley fumbled, forced by Marquis Haynes, recovered by Tenn Jacob Gilliam , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
91.3%
Matt Darr punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:4190% → 94%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
90.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 40 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
90.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-3
91.0%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
90.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
94.3%
Gary Wunderlich 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.6%
Evan Engram 28 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -20 yds · 1:352% → 2%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
98.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Sanders) to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 20
OWN 25
-8
98.3%
Justin Worley sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 28
OWN 17
-2
98.5%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 6:4299% → 99%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+16
98.8%
Bo Wallace run for 16 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.0%
Mark Dodson run for 3 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
99.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+12
99.0%
Bo Wallace run for 12 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.1%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
99.1%
Jeremy Liggins pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+12
99.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 12 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.2%
Bo Wallace run for 5 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
99.2%
Bo Wallace run for 7 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.2%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
99.2%
Bo Wallace sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
99.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
99.3%
Gary Wunderlich 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:331% → 1%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Justus PickettSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Justin Worley run for no gain to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
50
0
99.4%
Justin Worley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
50
+2
99.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+7
99.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 7 yds to the Miss 41 Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-4
99.4%
Derrell Scott run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
99.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+8
99.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 8 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.6%
DeVante Kincade run for 2 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+12
99.6%
DeVante Kincade run for 12 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.6%
DeVante Kincade run for 1 yd to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Quintavius Burdette for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
99.7%
Buchanan, Ryan pass incomplete to Adeboyejo, Quincy, PENALTY TENNESSEE offside (Saulsberry, Trevarris) 4 yards to the TENNESSEE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+7
99.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Tenn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Mark Dodson 8 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Derrell Scott run for 2 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:08
Vince Sanders 39 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+9.8
TD · Q2 1:51
Jaylen Walton 7 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q3 1:50
Evan Engram 28 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com