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VAN

Vanderbilt 14 at Missouri 24

MIZ
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:14 · Taylor Hudson punt for 36 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+40.4Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score differential+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Johnny McCrary pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 9 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +5.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 2:27: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +11.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:53: Johnny McCrary pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 29 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +23.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:47: Tommy Openshaw kickoff for 42 yds , Jimmie Hunt return for 7 yds to the Misso 30 — MIZ win probability +5.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:40: Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 4 yds to the Misso 34 — MIZ win probability +4.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:59MIZ 4th & 4 at VAN 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14VAN 4th & 9 at MIZ 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:36VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:10MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:54VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:04MIZ 4th & 12 at VAN 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:35VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:19MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:45MIZ 4th & 9 at VAN 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:50VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:39VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:26MIZ 4th & 7 at VAN 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:19MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:08VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:27MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:53VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:05MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:5194% → 93%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
93.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
93.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+16
93.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 16 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
93.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
93.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 10 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
93.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 5 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
93.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
93.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
93.1%
Andrew Baggett 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:417% → 8%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.0%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
92.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 11 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+17
92.4%
Johnny McCrary run for 2 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
92.2%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
92.0%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
92.2%
Taylor Hudson punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5092% → 92%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
92.1%
Maty Mauk sacked by Stephen Weatherly for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 16 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Maty Mauk) to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+1
92.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
91.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
91.7%
Christian Brinser punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:348% → 8%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
91.9%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+2
91.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
91.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
91.8%
Colby Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2092% → 91%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
91.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+1
90.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 50 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 1 yd to the Vandy 26 MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Anthony Sherrils) to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:089% → 10%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.0%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
90.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 5 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
90.4%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 1
50
-5
90.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
90.4%
Colby Cooke punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:3990% → 89%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
90.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 35 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-5
90.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for a loss of 5 yards Marcus Murphy fumbled, recovered by Misso Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
89.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
89.3%
Christian Brinser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 5:2510% → 12%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
89.8%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
89.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Kellen WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+12
89.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 12 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
89.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
89.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
88.6%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
88.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 6 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+5
88.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shane Ray) to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
87.6%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
87.3%
Johnny McCrary run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-4
87.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (NA) to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-7
87.2%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Matt Hoch for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+5
88.3%
Colby Cooke punt for 37 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 5 yds to the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:1188% → 91%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
87.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
87.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
88.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
87.6%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
88.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 17 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
88.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 13 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
88.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
87.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
87.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
90.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:079% → 16%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
90.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Aarion Penton) to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
90.5%
Johnny McCrary run for 8 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+25
89.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 25 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
88.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
89.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shane Ray) to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+7
89.1%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 7 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
89.1%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
89.3%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+10
89.5%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Davis DudchockSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 9 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
85.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:1316% → 20%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.2%
Dallas Rivers run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
83.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 17 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
82.1%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+10
82.3%
Johnny McCrary run for 10 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
80.8%
Kellen Williams run for 1 yd to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.4%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted Braylon Webb return for no gain to the Misso 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5283% → 82%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
83.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 13 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
83.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 6 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
84.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
84.0%
Maty Mauk run for 6 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
84.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
84.5%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-5
84.0%
Maty Mauk sacked by Stephen Weatherly for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
81.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4619% → 19%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
80.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
79.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 23Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
79.7%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
80.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+13
80.9%
Colby Cooke punt for 48 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 13 yds to the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:1882% → 91%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
81.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
81.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 10 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
82.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
80.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
80.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Marcus MurphySimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+36
79.1%
Maty Mauk run for 36 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
91.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4111% → 10%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.4%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 10 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.8%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 35Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
89.0%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Markus Golden) to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
88.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+44
89.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the MISSOURI 26 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Misso 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:1390% → 90%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
90.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Mitch Hall) to the Misso 11Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+2
90.0%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+8
90.2%
Maty Mauk run for 8 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+17
89.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 17 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.7%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
90.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
91.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
91.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-5
91.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+21
91.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 21 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Wesley LeftwichSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
90.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+42
90.0%
Andrew Baggett 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:279% → 33%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
91.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Kris Kentera for 9 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+16
90.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 16 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
89.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+10
91.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Holding (NA) to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
89.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 11 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
88.6%
Jerron Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+7
90.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Caleb Scott for 7 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
66.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 29 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:3577% → 96%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
76.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
78.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
78.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
79.2%
Maty Mauk run for 7 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+19
82.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 19 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
85.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-9
89.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Maty Mauk for 1 yd to the Vandy 34 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (NA) to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+25
88.7%
Maty Mauk run for 10 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
90.7%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-5
91.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Taylor Chappell) to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+25
96.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 25 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:503% → 3%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Tripping (NA) to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 22
OWN 13
-9
96.9%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Harold Brantley for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 31
OWN 4
0
97.2%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Chandler DorrellSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 31
OWN 4
0
97.3%
Colby Cooke punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3097% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:53
Johnny McCrary pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 29 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-23.5
TD · Q3 2:27
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q2 0:08
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 9 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com