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ULM

UL Monroe 16 at Texas A&M 21

TA&M
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:00 · Justin Manton punt for 41 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+26.5Home team on offense+11.6Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:05: Tra Carson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:05: Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 39 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:58: Justin Manton 23 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +2.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:26: Justin Manton 22 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +6.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:39: Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 22 — TA&M win probability +5.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 7:10ULM 4th & 8 at TA&M 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:21ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:31TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:39TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:57TA&M 4th & 23 at ULM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:56ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:38ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:13TA&M 4th & 1 at ULM 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.8%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05TA&M 4th & 1 at ULM 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:20ULM 4th & 10 at TA&M 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:00ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:21TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:45ULM 4th & 5 at TA&M 22, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:58ULM 4th & 6 at TA&M 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:39ULM 4th & 2 at TA&M 9, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−10.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:26ULM 4th & 5 at TA&M 5, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−11.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:29TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:48ULM 4th & 5 at TA&M 40, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−2.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−4.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:57TA&M 4th & 4 at ULM 39, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−1.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−2.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:23ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:44TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:56ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:05TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:05TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0197% → 97%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.1%
Brandon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
97.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
97.1%
Brandon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
97.0%
Brandon Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 3
50
+4
97.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 4 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.9%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
96.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 13 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
96.8%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
96.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+13
96.7%
Kyle Allen run for 13 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
96.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Edward Pope for 9 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+11
96.6%
James White run for 11 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Brandon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:213% → 4%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Centarius DonaldSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
96.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Howard MatthewsSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+13
96.6%
Pete Thomas run for 13 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
96.5%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-3
96.4%
Pete Thomas sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+22
96.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 22 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 2 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
96.2%
Justin Manton punt for 23 yds, downed at the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4396% → 96%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.2%
Brandon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+14
96.1%
Kyle Allen run for 14 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
96.1%
Brandon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
96.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 5 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Bryce Ray return for no gain to the LaMon 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:334% → 4%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
95.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-3
95.8%
Pete Thomas sacked by Alonzo Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
95.8%
Pete Thomas run for no gain to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
95.8%
Justin Manton punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4596% → 95%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
95.7%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
95.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Boone Niederhofer, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
95.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:145% → 7%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
95.4%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 15 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Brayle Brown for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+20
95.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 20 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
94.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 11 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to De'Vonte Haggerty for no gain to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+29
94.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 29 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
94.4%
Kenzee Jackson pass complete to Pete Thomas for 8 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0394% → 93%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
93.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to James White for 2 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
93.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
93.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Brandon Williams for no gain to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
92.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 43 yds, downed at the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:487% → 8%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
92.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-5
92.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (Frank Sutton Jr.) to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
92.3%
Pete Thomas pass intercepted Armani Watts return for no gain to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:2293% → 91%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
92.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 13 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.1%
Brandon Williams run for 5 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
93.1%
Brandon Williams run for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
92.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
92.9%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
92.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Edward Pope for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
92.5%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-13
92.6%
Kyle Allen sacked by Hunter Kissinger for a loss of 13 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 23
OPP 39
0
92.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Tra CarsonSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 23
OPP 39
0
91.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 23
OPP 39
0
91.1%
Drew Kaser punt for 37 yds, downed at the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:519% → 10%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
90.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 9 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 11
-4
90.3%
Tyler Cain run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 5
OWN 7
-2
90.2%
Pete Thomas sacked by Josh Walker and Myles Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 5Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+39
90.4%
Justin Manton punt for 46 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 39 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4592% → 94%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
91.7%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Pope, Edward (Caldwell, Trey), PENALTY ULMONROE offside (Johnson, Gerrand) 5 yards to the ULMONROE7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 5
OPP 7
+2
91.5%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
91.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
93.7%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:207% → 7%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
92.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 4 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Hardreck WalkerSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
93.0%
Justin Manton punt for 35 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 9 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2494% → 96%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.5%
Brandon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
93.4%
Brandon Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 2
50
+1
93.0%
Brandon Williams run for 1 yd to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
92.6%
Brandon Williams run for 1 yd to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
93.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 1 yd to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
93.3%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Malcome Kennedy, broken up by Mitch LaneSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+8
93.0%
Kyle Allen run for 8 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
95.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 39 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:485% → 6%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.2%
Pete Thomas run for 4 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
95.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
94.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
94.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 6 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
94.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Howard MatthewsSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+11
94.7%
Thomas, Pete pass incomplete to Jackson, Kenzee (Harris, De'Vante), PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Harris, De'Vante) 11 yards to the TEXASAM29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULMONROE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
94.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (Chase Regian) to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+51
93.8%
Justin Manton 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:306% → 7%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 14 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
93.3%
Centarius Donald run for 9 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-4
92.9%
Pete Thomas sacked by Donnie Baggs for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+13
93.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 13 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
92.7%
Pete Thomas run for 7 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
92.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Alec Osborne, broken up by Armani WattsSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-2
92.5%
Pete Thomas sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 38
-5
93.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
93.3%
Justin Manton punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4594% → 93%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
93.5%
Brandon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
93.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 4 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-6
93.1%
Kyle Allen sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+8
92.7%
Drew Kaser punt for 55 yds , Rashon Ceaser returns for 8 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:177% → 7%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
92.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
92.8%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyrone CarterSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-4
93.2%
Pete Thomas sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+2
93.4%
Justin Manton punt for 41 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2693% → 93%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
93.2%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-1
93.4%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+2
93.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 2 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
92.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20FG
19 plays · 76 yds · 6:038% → 10%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.4%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
92.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 17 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.0%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
92.1%
Pete Thomas run for 7 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
91.2%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
91.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
90.9%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by De'Vante HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
91.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
90.7%
Centarius Donald run for 12 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
89.7%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
89.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
90.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Tommy SandersSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+12
91.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 12 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
91.9%
Pete Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
89.8%
Justin Manton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
92.8%
Kyle Allen sacked by Cody Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 38 Kyle Allen fumbled, forced by Cody Robinson, recovered by LaMon Hunter Kissinger , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22FG
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:0211% → 17%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
88.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 11 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
87.3%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
87.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 10 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
87.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+8
88.8%
Pete Thomas run for 8 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+3
90.8%
Pete Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
88.9%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
88.7%
Centarius Donald run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 6Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
89.5%
Pete Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
83.0%
Justin Manton 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4387% → 86%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
87.0%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
85.6%
Drew Kaser punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:2516% → 15%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
83.9%
Pete Thomas sacked by Daeshon Hall and Tommy Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+9
84.8%
Pete Thomas run for 9 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+17
82.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 17 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
81.2%
Tyler Cain run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
83.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+11
85.0%
Justin Manton punt for 30 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 11 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25PUNT
13 plays · 40 yds · 4:4290% → 94%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
90.0%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 22Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+11
89.8%
Tra Carson run for 11 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.2%
Brandon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
91.6%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
91.0%
Brandon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
92.0%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
92.6%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
92.8%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy Noil, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
94.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
94.5%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
94.2%
Drew Kaser punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2510% → 9%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
90.2%
Pete Thomas run for 6 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
90.3%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
90.7%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tyler CainSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
91.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5596% → 96%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
95.9%
Brandon Williams run for 3 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-2
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 10:26
Justin Manton 22 yd FG GOOD
-6.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:39
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 22
+5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com