Try the model
AUB

Auburn 35 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:03 · Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−1.8Pregame prior+4.6Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: Sammie Coates 57 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +14.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:30: Nick Marshall 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +16.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 1:59: Marcus Davis 17 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +24.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:26: Bo Wallace 3 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +28.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:23: Cameron Artis-Payne 6 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +31.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:14MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03AUB 4th & 3 at MISS 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:40AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:50MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:44MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:37AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:25AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:36MISS 4th & 19 at MISS 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:14MISS 4th & 2 at AUB 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:47AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:45MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:22AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 25, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:26AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−2.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:04AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:00MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:02MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:24AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:36MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:30AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:59AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:26MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:23AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:3545% → 46%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
55.3%
Ricardo Louis run for 14 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
55.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
55.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
55.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 20 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
55.1%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
55.1%
Roc Thomas run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+18
55.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 18 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.1%
Nick Marshall 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1654% → 54%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
54.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+8
54.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
54.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
54.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
53.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
53.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 43 yds, downed at the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0046% → 47%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
53.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 20 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
53.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
52.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
52.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
52.7%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:4453% → 57%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
52.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 5Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+4
52.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 4 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+18
52.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 18 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
52.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
52.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 8 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
53.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 23 yds to the OLEMISS 39 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for no gain to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+21
53.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 21 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
53.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 4Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.1%
I'Tavius Mathers 4 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:0245% → 44%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
55.4%
Ricardo Louis run for 2 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+1
55.5%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-10
55.6%
Marshall, Nick rush for 8 yards to the AUBURN 44, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Danzey, Devonte) 10 yards to the AUBURN26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 17
OWN 26
-5
56.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 22
OWN 21
+16
56.4%
Corey Grant run for 16 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
56.3%
Daniel Carlson punt for 47 yds, downed at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4557% → 57%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
57.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
56.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
56.8%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:0746% → 46%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
54.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 14 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
53.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
53.5%
Roc Thomas run for 7 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
53.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-4
53.3%
Corey Grant run for 6 yds to the Miss 15, AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+5
53.4%
Corey Grant run for 5 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+31
53.9%
Nick Marshall pass intercepted Senquez Golson return for 21 yds to the Miss 34, OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (Marquis Haynes) to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2258% → 57%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
57.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-2
59.1%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-10
57.8%
Wallace, Bo pass complete to Treadwell, Laquon for 11 yards to the OLEMISS42, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
57.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 13
OWN 21
+6
56.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 39 yds , Quan Bray returns for 6 yds to the Aub 27 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Block (Jermaine Whitehead) to the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5845% → 44%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
55.0%
Grant, Corey rush for loss of 3 yards to the AUBURN33, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul 15 yards to the AUBURN21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+5
54.9%
Roc Thomas run for 5 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
55.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+9
55.7%
Nick Marshall run for 9 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
56.0%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 39 yds, downed at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:3558% → 70%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
58.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Robert Conyers) to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+69
61.2%
Bo Wallace run for 59 yds to the OLEMISS 20 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
69.7%
Laquon Treadwell 10 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1033% → 30%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
67.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
67.3%
Nick Marshall run for 7 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
67.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-5
69.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+1
69.6%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 43 yds, Markell Pack returns for 1 yd to the Miss 41, OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2569% → 67%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
69.0%
Bo Wallace sacked by Angelo Blackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+2
68.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-8
68.0%
Bo Wallace sacked by Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 19
OWN 22
+4
67.1%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 39 yds, Quan Bray returns for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
52.2%
Sammie Coates 57 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:1858% → 65%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.2%
Bo Wallace run for 13 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
59.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
60.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 2 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
60.9%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 9
50
-9
61.1%
Bo Wallace sacked by Gimel President for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+15
57.5%
Wallace, Bo pass incomplete, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Mincy, Jonathon) 15 yards to the AUBURN44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
61.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 14 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
65.4%
Gary Wunderlich 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:2862% → 63%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
62.0%
Cody Core run for 23 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
64.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+5
64.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
64.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
63.0%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0840% → 37%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
60.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-2
59.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
62.0%
Nick Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
63.2%
Daniel Carlson punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
50
+50
77.4%
Evan Engram 50 Yd pass from Bo Wallace (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:5625% → 44%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
74.8%
Nick Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
75.8%
Corey Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+41
77.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 41 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
72.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 11 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
72.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 11 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
72.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 9 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
55.9%
Nick Marshall 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3663% → 62%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Bo Wallace run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
61.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 15 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
64.8%
Bo Wallace sacked by Montravius Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
62.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
61.6%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 58 yds, downed at the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
11 plays · 96 yds · 3:3937% → 67%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
62.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 11 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
62.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
61.7%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+13
62.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 13 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
61.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+14
63.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 14 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
58.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+9
58.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 9 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
59.2%
Nick Marshall run for 19 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
57.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
33.2%
Marcus Davis 17 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2342% → 73%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
41.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 34 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
46.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
48.2%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+6
45.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 6 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
48.0%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+29
45.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 29 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.4%
Bo Wallace 3 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5234% → 73%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.9%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Cameron Artis-PayneSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+41
67.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 41 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
59.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 14 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
58.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+9
59.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 9 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
60.8%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
58.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
27.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne 6 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23FUMBLE
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:3939% → 44%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
39.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 24 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
42.2%
Bo Wallace run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-6
43.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Aaron Morris) to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+22
40.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 22 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
43.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
45.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+17
43.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
44.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 9 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 1
OPP 6
0
44.1%
Bo Wallace run for no gain to the Aub 6 Bo Wallace fumbled, forced by Derrick Moncrief, recovered by Aub Kris FrostSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0174% → 80%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
26.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
25.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+6
26.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 6 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
22.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
21.6%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Corey GrantSimilar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+10
20.2%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 52 yds for a 1ST down , Markell Pack returns for 10 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Ricardo Louis) to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:3935% → 34%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
34.8%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+10
31.7%
Wallace, Bo pass incomplete to Sanders, Vince, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Mincy, Jonathon) 10 yards to the AUBURN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
36.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+7
38.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
37.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
37.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+19
34.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 19 yds Laquon Treadwell fumbled, recovered by Aub Cassanova McKinzySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5090% → 93%
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
10.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-1
6.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+9
6.7%
Daniel Carlson punt for 40 yds , Markell Pack returns for 9 yds to the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:2118% → 13%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.4%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
17.3%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
14.6%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+14
13.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 14 yds to the Miss 42 lat. to Vince Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 42 lat. to Bo Wallace for a loss of 14 yards to the Miss 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:23
Cameron Artis-Payne 6 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)
-31.5
TD · Q4 14:26
Bo Wallace 3 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+28.2
TD · Q3 1:59
Marcus Davis 17 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)
-24.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com