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TA&M

Texas A&M 41 at Auburn 38

AUB
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:49 · Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 40 yds , Speedy Noil returns for no gain to the TexAM 30 Speedy Noil fumbled, recovered by TexAM Speedy Noil
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior+16.9Home team on offense−19.7Score differential−11.9Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Deshazor Everett 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Josh Lambo Kick) — TA&M win probability +12.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:41: Nick Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +16.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:47: Josh Lambo 22 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +8.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +22.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:42: Nick Marshall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +32.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 5:04TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:49AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:14AUB 4th & 13 at TA&M 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 7 at TA&M 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−6.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:49AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:17TA&M 4th & 13 at AUB 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−2.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:47TA&M 4th & 4 at AUB 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−11.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:54TA&M 4th & 6 at AUB 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−12.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:40TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−4.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:28TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−22.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:32TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:53TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:16AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:32AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:29TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:29TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:00TA&M Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:41AUB Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:54AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:42AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1915% → 16%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.2%
Trey Williams run for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
85.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Trey Williams for 4 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 4 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+60
84.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 60 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+8
84.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 8 yds to the TexAM 42 Cameron Artis-Payne fumbled, forced by Otaro Alaka, recovered by TexAM Floyd Raven Sr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:2216% → 16%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
84.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 7 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cassanova McKinzy) to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
84.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-Jones, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
83.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 36 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:2384% → 82%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
83.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 11 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
83.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
83.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
82.5%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
82.2%
Nick Marshall run for 9 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
82.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 3 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
81.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 11 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
81.5%
Ricardo Louis run for 16 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
80.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
80.4%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
80.2%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5719% → 20%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
80.8%
Tra Carson run for 12 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
80.4%
Brandon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Brandon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+1
79.8%
Kyle Allen run for 1 yd to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
79.8%
Drew Kaser punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2380% → 83%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
79.8%
Ricardo Louis run for 25 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
80.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+6
80.1%
Roc Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
80.0%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
79.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
79.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
82.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 3:3819% → 26%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
81.2%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+12
81.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 12 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
80.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 10 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
80.2%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
80.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+18
80.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+17
79.0%
Trey Williams run for 17 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
78.5%
Trey Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
78.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gabe Wright) to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+1
78.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 1 yd to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
73.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2675% → 73%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
75.1%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
75.0%
Roc Thomas run for 10 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.9%
Ricardo Louis run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
74.5%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
73.9%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
73.4%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 44 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:1127% → 36%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
73.4%
Brandon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+8
72.5%
Brandon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
71.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Brandon Williams for 5 yds to the AUBURN 46 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ben Bradley) to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
71.5%
Brandon Williams run for 24 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 6:0765% → 61%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.4%
Corey Grant run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
64.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
64.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 14 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
64.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Melvin Ray for 18 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
64.2%
Nick Marshall run for 8 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+6
63.9%
Roc Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
63.2%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
62.3%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+12
61.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 12 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
61.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
61.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
59.4%
Nick Marshall sacked by Alonzo Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 13Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
61.2%
Daniel Carlson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.8%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Jermaine Whitehead return for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12END OF HALF TD
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:3962% → 44%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
61.7%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
61.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
59.4%
Marshall, Nick pass incomplete to Bray, Quan, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Harris, De'Vante) 15 yards to the TEXASAM39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
61.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
60.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 5 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
60.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
61.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, broken up by Deshazor EverettSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
61.4%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+8
58.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Corey Grant for 8 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+65
44.2%
Deshazor Everett 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Josh Lambo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 12 yds · 3:5740% → 32%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
39.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
38.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+6
37.7%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
36.6%
Marshall, Nick pass incomplete to Uzomah, C.J., PENALTY AUBURN holding (Coleman, Shon) 10 yards to the AUBURN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-3
35.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 17Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 23
OWN 17
-5
34.3%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Reese Dismukes) to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 28
OWN 12
-7
33.3%
Nick Marshall sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 35
OWN 5
+25
31.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 25 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
31.7%
Jimmy Hutchinson punt for 40 yds , Speedy Noil returns for no gain to the TexAM 30 Speedy Noil fumbled, recovered by TexAM Speedy NoilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:2572% → 77%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
28.5%
Tra Carson run for 9 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
26.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 5 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
25.7%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
24.9%
Kyle Allen sacked by Angelo Blackson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+28
24.4%
Trey Williams run for 28 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
21.8%
Trey Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
21.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Malcome Kennedy, broken up by Robenson TherezieSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
21.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Brandon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
23.5%
Josh Lambo 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2827% → 43%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
26.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
27.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
26.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 11 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
27.3%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Sammie Coates) to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+13
25.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 13 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+4
26.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+32
26.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 32 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
26.5%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.7%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4463% → 80%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.1%
Brandon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
36.5%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
36.6%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Reynolds, Josh, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Daniel, Elijah) 5 yards to the TEXASAM33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
36.2%
Tra Carson run for 11 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
32.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 4
50
+42
31.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 42 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
30.1%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
29.0%
Trey Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 4Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.5%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
20.2%
Josh Lambo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4723% → 48%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
22.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
22.9%
Nick Marshall run for 30 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
48.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 6:4164% → 84%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
36.2%
Williams, Trey rush for 4 yards to the TEXASAM19, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal block (Matthews, Mike) 7 yards to the TEXASAM8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+11
35.9%
Trey Williams run for 11 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
35.1%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Pope, Edward, PENALTY AUBURN offside 5 yards to the TEXASAM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+8
33.2%
Brandon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
33.1%
Brandon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
29.1%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 4 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
26.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 10 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
26.2%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
25.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 7 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+16
22.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Speedy Noil for 16 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
20.1%
Trey Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
19.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+2
19.9%
Trey Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
16.5%
Josh Lambo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0817% → 50%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.6%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Myles Garrett) to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
18.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+52
17.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 52 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.6%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5066% → 66%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
33.6%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
31.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
34.3%
Drew Kaser punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:5539% → 42%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
39.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+17
40.2%
Nick Marshall run for 17 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
42.1%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+39
37.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 39 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
46.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+11
45.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 11 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
45.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.7%
Nick Marshall run for no gain to the TexAM 2 Nick Marshall fumbled, recovered by TexAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0478% → 84%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
21.7%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
21.3%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 5
-4
21.7%
Trey Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 12
OWN 1
+9
15.6%
Drew Kaser punt for 50 yds , Quan Bray returns for 9 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2028% → 33%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
28.3%
Ricardo Louis run for 8 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+6
34.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 6 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
32.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexAM Alonzo WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:2493% → 93%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
7.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-2
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:42
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+32.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q3 4:41
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com