Try the model
UTM

UT Martin 16 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 4 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+36.2Score differential+30.3Garbage-time factor+10.9Blowout margin+17.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:49: Dak Prescott run for 48 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:31: Brandon Holloway run for 35 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:35: Evan Sobiesk 27 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 55 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:28: Jarod Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jackson Redditt PAT BLOCKED) — UTM win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:37MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31UTM 4th & 10 at MSST 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:33UTM 4th & 6 at MSST 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:02UTM 4th & 11 at UTM 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:09MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:06UTM 4th & 9 at UTM 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:30MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35MSST 4th & 4 at UTM 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:27UTM 4th & 15 at UTM 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:30UTM 4th & 2 at MSST 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:50UTM 4th & 7 at MSST 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00UTM 4th & 12 at MSST 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:43MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 15, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:15UTM 4th & 4 at MSST 17, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:44MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:49MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:31MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:52MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:40MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:14UTM Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:28UTM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:37MSST Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
99.2%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+5
99.2%
Devon Bell punt for 41 yds , William Tanner returns for 5 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Matt StewartSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
99.2%
Abou Toure run for 12 yds to the TnMar 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.2%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Kyle KerrickSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.2%
Abou Toure run for 2 yds to the TnMar 44Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+17
99.1%
Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 17 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Caylon WeathersSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to William TannerSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
99.1%
James Satterfield punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 4:4199% → 99%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
99.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
99.1%
Gabe Myles run for 3 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+8
99.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 8 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
99.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 11 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.0%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+13
98.9%
Dak Prescott run for 13 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
98.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 9 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+10
98.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ladevin Fair) to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
98.9%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the TnMar 28Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
98.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+15
98.8%
Josh Robinson run for 15 yds to the TnMar 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.8%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Ladevin Fair) to the TnMar 8Similar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 5
OPP 8
-5
98.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Touching (Blaine Clausell) to the TnMar 13Similar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
98.8%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the TnMar 10Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
98.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
98.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 10 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 4FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:021% → 2%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Dylan Favre pass complete to Kyle Kerrick for 6 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
98.8%
Abou Toure run for 3 yds to the TnMar 34Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.7%
Abou Toure run for 3 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.7%
Abou Toure run for 1 yd to the TnMar 38Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
98.6%
Dylan Favre run for 8 yds to the TnMar 46Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+34
98.5%
Trent Garland run for 34 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
98.4%
Trent Garland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
98.4%
Dylan Favre run for 1 yd to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
98.4%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to Taylor HiggasonSimilar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
98.3%
Jackson Redditt 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:3198% → 99%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
98.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 12 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 24 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
98.2%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the TnMar 48Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+48
98.5%
Dak Prescott run for 48 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:382% → 2%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
98.5%
Dylan Favre pass complete to Ladevin Fair for 4 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
98.4%
Dylan Favre pass complete to Rod Wright for 5 yds to the TnMar 35Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
98.3%
Abou Toure run for 1 yd to the TnMar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.3%
Dylan Favre pass complete to William Tanner for 5 yds to the TnMar 41Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
98.2%
Abou Toure run for 7 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.2%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to Corey JordanSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
98.2%
Abou Toure run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-7
98.1%
Dylan Favre sacked by Ryan Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the TnMar 47Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
98.2%
James Satterfield punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4698% → 98%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
98.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Tony Bell for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+11
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 11 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 49
-5
98.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Taveze Calhoun) to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Devon Bell punt for 51 yds, downed at the TnMar 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
98.1%
Abou Toure run for 5 yds to the TnMar 10Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
98.0%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to William TannerSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
98.0%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to Ladevin FairSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 5
OWN 10
-3
98.0%
James Satterfield punt for 39 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:2498% → 99%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
98.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 17 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 35 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
98.9%
Trent Garland run for a loss of 1 yard to the TnMar 20Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Trent Garland run for no gain to the TnMar 20Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+2
98.9%
Trent Garland run for 2 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
98.9%
James Satterfield punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:2399% → 99%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
98.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
98.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 3
50
-1
98.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+10
98.4%
Devon Bell pass complete to Tolando Cleveland for 10 yds to the TnMar 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
98.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 26 yds to the TnMar 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
98.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the TnMar 8Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-1
98.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the TnMar 9Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
98.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
99.3%
Evan Sobiesk 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.3%
Trent Garland run for 6 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+13
99.1%
Dylan Favre pass complete to William Tanner for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:231% → 1%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Dylan Favre run for 4 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
98.9%
Abou Toure run for 8 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.9%
Abou Toure run for 2 yds to the TnMar 39Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
98.8%
Dylan Favre pass complete to Reuben Duckworth for 1 yd to the TnMar 40Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-8
98.9%
Dylan Favre sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the TnMar 32 Dylan Favre fumbled, recovered by TnMar Charles Sweeton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
99.0%
James Satterfield punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:2899% → 100%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
99.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+7
99.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 55 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to Taylor HiggasonSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.8%
Dylan Favre pass complete to William Tanner for 18 yds to the TnMar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.8%
Dylan Favre pass complete to Ladevin Fair for 5 yds to the TnMar 48Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Trent Garland run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
50
+1
99.8%
Trent Garland run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+5
99.8%
Trent Garland run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to Taylor HiggasonSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to William TannerSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.8%
Dylan Favre run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Dylan Favre pass incomplete to Taylor HiggasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 59 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:300% → 0%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Abou Toure run for 4 yds to the TnMar 25Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Taylor Higgason for 14 yds to the TnMar 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
Abou Toure run for 10 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Jarod Neal run for 5 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Abou Toure for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Trent Garland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-10
99.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 18
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ladevin Fair for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
99.9%
James Satterfield punt for 27 yds, downed at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-8
99.9%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+6
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Myles for 6 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+1
99.9%
Devon Bell punt for 39 yds , William Tanner returns for 1 yd to the TnMar 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Abou Toure run for 2 yds to the TnMar 49Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Abou Toure for 7 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Abou Toure run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 31 yds for a TD, (Jackson Redditt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Nick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-11
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TnMar Deantae GloverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 21TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:370% → 1%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Ben AxlineSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
Abou Toure run for 7 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+7
99.9%
Jarod Neal pass complete to James Ratliff for 7 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.9%
Abou Toure run for 3 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Jarod Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jackson Redditt PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
99.6%
Nick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
99.6%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.6%
Nick Griffin run for 5 yds to the TnMar 44Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Nick Griffin run for no gain to the TnMar 44Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+44
100.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jamoral Graham for 44 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 23END OF GAME
18 plays · 71 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Kyle KerrickSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Abou Toure run for 5 yds to the TnMar 25Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Corey Rogers for 7 yds to the TnMar 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Abou ToureSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
100.0%
Abou Toure run for 11 yds to the TnMar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 23 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 11 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
100.0%
Jarod Neal sacked by Torrey Dale for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+10
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Ben Axline for 10 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Rod WrightSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+4
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to William Tanner for 4 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass incomplete to Caylon WeathersSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
100.0%
Jarod Neal pass complete to Rod Wright for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:35
Evan Sobiesk 27 yd FG GOOD
+0.9
TD · Q2 6:31
Brandon Holloway run for 35 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q3 8:52
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 55 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com