Try the model
MSST

Mississippi State 20 at Alabama 25

ALA
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+6.7ALA 94.1%T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 13 - HOME 25 · Q4 8:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:09 · T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense+23.9Pregame prior+2.9Score differential+8.2Garbage-time factor+12.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +6.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:32: Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +5.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:16: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +20.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:09: T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ALA win probability +6.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +12.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:13ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:02ALA 4th & 9 at MSST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06ALA 4th & 5 at MSST 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:35MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44ALA 4th & 8 at MSST 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 29, up 5
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:36MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:06MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 9, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:25MSST 4th & 3 at ALA 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:03MSST 4th & 5 at ALA 5, down 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−7.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:06MSST 4th & 5 at ALA 14, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:58ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 39, up 13
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:03MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:12ALA 4th & 10 at MSST 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:10ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:00MSST 4th & 7 at ALA 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:18ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 26, up 12
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:15MSST 4th & 4 at ALA 4, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:45ALA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:32ALA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:16MSST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:09ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:15MSST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4271% → 71%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
71.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+7
71.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
71.2%
Blake Sims run for 4 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
71.0%
JK Scott punt for 48 yds , Fred Ross returns for no gain to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:4429% → 30%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
71.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 6 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
70.9%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
70.8%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
70.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
70.5%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
70.4%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
70.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
70.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
70.5%
Devon Bell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0871% → 70%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
70.5%
Sims, Blake pass incomplete to Stewart, ArDarius, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Hughes, Jay) 15 yards to the ALABAMA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
70.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+17
71.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 17 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
71.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
71.1%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Jalston FowlerSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-1
70.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-5
70.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
70.1%
JK Scott punt for 34 yds, downed at the MisSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4SF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0730% → 29%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
70.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, broken up by Cyrus JonesSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-5
70.8%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:1971% → 71%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
70.9%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
71.2%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
50
+3
71.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
71.3%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+11
71.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 11 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
71.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
71.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
71.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
71.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+2
71.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
70.5%
Adam Griffith 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2529% → 29%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
70.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
70.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 1 yd to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
70.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
71.2%
Devon Bell punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4171% → 70%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
71.3%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
71.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to ArDarius Stewart, broken up by Matthew WellsSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
70.9%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
69.8%
JK Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1330% → 31%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
70.4%
Jameon Lewis run for no gain to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+29
70.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 29 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
69.6%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+16
68.9%
Jameon Lewis run for 16 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert Johnson, broken up by Eddie JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
68.5%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+1
68.6%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Nick Perry return for 1 yd to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1770% → 71%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
69.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
69.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 5 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
69.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
70.5%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5430% → 29%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
70.5%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
70.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+2
71.2%
Jameon Lewis run for 2 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
71.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, downed at the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:4572% → 81%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
72.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 35 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
73.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 11 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
73.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+8
73.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 8 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
74.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 8 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2421% → 20%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
79.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 3 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-1
79.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+4
79.8%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 4
OWN 18
-9
79.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
80.5%
Devon Bell punt for 42 yds, downed at the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:2882% → 87%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
81.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 50 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14DOWNS
19 plays · 70 yds · 5:2714% → 17%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.6%
Dak Prescott sacked by Dalvin Tomlinson for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+28
86.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 28 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
85.5%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
86.0%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
85.8%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+19
86.7%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Trey DePriest) to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
85.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
86.3%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 11 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.8%
Robinson, Josh rush for no gain to the ALABAMA1, PENALTY ALABAMA offside 0 yards to the ALABAMA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
85.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Malone) to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Cyrus JonesSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
83.4%
Evan Sobiesk 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4415% → 17%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
84.7%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+12
84.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 12 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.3%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
84.1%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
83.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 30 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
82.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
82.9%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
83.5%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
83.1%
Evan Sobiesk 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0686% → 85%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
85.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+8
85.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
85.4%
JK Scott punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5514% → 14%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
85.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (16 Yards) to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
85.5%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
86.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
86.4%
Devon Bell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:4888% → 88%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
87.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 17 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
87.7%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-2
87.8%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
87.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 15 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
88.2%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-7
88.5%
Blake Sims sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+6
88.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
87.8%
Adam Griffith 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20INT
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1613% → 14%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.8%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
87.1%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
87.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 10 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
86.9%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+14
86.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
50
+9
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+1
85.6%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
86.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 26 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
85.1%
Fred Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted, touchback. Cyrus Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2691% → 90%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Blake Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-5
89.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (JK Scott) to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+23
89.8%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds , Fred Ross returns for 23 yds to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:2913% → 34%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
87.5%
Dak Prescott run for 22 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
86.5%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+11
86.6%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the Alab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.7%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Alab 4Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 6:0180% → 94%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
79.5%
Derrick Henry run for 9 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
81.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 2 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
80.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
83.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+8
83.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 8 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
85.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
50
0
86.0%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari Cooper, broken up by Jamerson LoveSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 8
50
+10
84.9%
Blake Sims run for 10 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to T.J. YeldonSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
86.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+11
85.1%
Blake Sims run for 11 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
87.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 10 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
87.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 11 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
87.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.1%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24INT
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:447% → 8%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
92.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+26
91.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 11 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Darren Lake) to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
91.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 5 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
91.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, broken up by Eddie JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-2
92.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+9
92.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 9 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
91.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
92.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 11 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
92.3%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Landon Collins return for 2 yds to the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4295% → 97%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
95.1%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
95.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+10
95.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 10 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
96.9%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 2:503% → 14%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
96.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 8 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
96.6%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+15
96.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 15 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+10
96.9%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
96.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 16 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
96.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 8 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
96.1%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
96.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the Alab 4Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
93.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:16
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q4 0:15
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 7:45
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com