Try the model
VAN

Vanderbilt 0 at Mississippi State 51

MSST
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:08 · Johnny McCrary run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+46.2Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.3Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:01: Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk PAT MISSED) — MSST win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:05: Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 27 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 14:01: Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 14 yds for a TD Latevius Rayford fumbled, forced by Christian Holmes, recovered by MisSt Christian Holmes , return for 51 yds, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:27: Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:31: Dak Prescott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — MSST win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:08VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:05VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:01MSST 4th & 15 at VAN 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:51VAN 4th & 2 at MSST 39, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 1 at VAN 16, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 47, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:09VAN 4th & 8 at midfield, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:59MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 14, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:48VAN 4th & 10 at MSST 23, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:23VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:17VAN 4th & 2 at MSST 16, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:48VAN 4th & 6 at MSST 10, down 51
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:01MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:05MSST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:27MSST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:31MSST Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:23MSST Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55MSST Touchdown, up 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
20 plays · 20 yds · 4:543% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.5%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
97.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 4 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.5%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 9 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
97.5%
Johnny McCrary run for no gain to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
97.5%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
97.5%
Johnny McCrary run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.5%
Dallas Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
97.5%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Kellen WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
97.5%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+3
97.5%
Colby Cooke punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.5%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
97.3%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 4 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.2%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 9 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
97.1%
Johnny McCrary run for no gain to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
97.0%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
96.9%
Johnny McCrary run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
96.8%
Dallas Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Casey HughesSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 1:5597% → 97%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
96.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 19 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.8%
Nick Griffin run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+14
96.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 14 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
96.8%
Josh Robinson run for 26 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for no gain to the Vandy 15 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
96.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
96.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 19 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.7%
Nick Griffin run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+14
96.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 14 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
96.6%
Josh Robinson run for 26 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for no gain to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
96.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
96.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · -4 yds · 1:133% → 3%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius Rayford, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
96.6%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Matthew Wells for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
96.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
96.6%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Matthew Wells for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:1697% → 97%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
96.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Justin Senior) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+15
96.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Torren McGaster) 15 yards to the VANDY38, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
96.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 13 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
96.6%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+15
96.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
96.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 13 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
96.5%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-10
96.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-10
96.5%
Josh Robinson rush for no gain to the VANDY17, clock 05:15, PENALTY MS illegal block (Malcolm Johnson) 10 yards to the VANDY27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+27
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 27 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:553% → 3%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Dallas RiversSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Colby Cooke punt for 31 yds, downed at the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Chandler DorrellSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
17 plays · 19 yds · 1:5997% → 97%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Nick Griffin for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
97.1%
Nick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.1%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
97.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Blaine Clausell) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
97.1%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh Robinson, broken up by Kyle WoestmannSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
97.0%
Devon Bell punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Nick Griffin for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
97.0%
Nick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.1%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
97.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
97.0%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
96.9%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:533% → 2%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
96.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Dillon van der Wal for 12 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
96.6%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Kaleb Eulls and Matthew Wells for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Dillon van der Wal for 12 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
96.5%
Johnny McCrary sacked by Kaleb Eulls and Matthew Wells for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+9
96.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 9 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+51
97.8%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 14 yds for a TD Latevius Rayford fumbled, forced by Christian Holmes, recovered by MisSt Christian Holmes , return for 51 yds, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
97.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
97.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+15
97.8%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Ralph Webb (Beniquez Brown), PENALTY MS pass interference (Beniquez Brown) 15 yards to the MS47, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
97.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+6
97.8%
Johnny McCrary run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
97.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:3298% → 99%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
98.1%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
98.1%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
98.0%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
50
+24
98.1%
Josh Robinson run for 24 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe Morrow, broken up by Darrius SimsSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-2
98.1%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+14
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 14 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.1%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 11 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.1%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 7 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
99.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
99.1%
Patton Robinette run for 3 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Patton Robinette pass intercepted Tolando Cleveland return for 5 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:2499% → 100%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
99.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 7 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
99.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
99.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
99.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
99.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
99.2%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
99.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Kyle Woestmann for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 13Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+9
99.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.5%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+24
99.6%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 24 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+24
99.6%
Johnny McCrary pass intercepted Beniquez Brown return for 24 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 4 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-10
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, PENALTY MS holding (Blaine Clausell) 10 yards to the VANDY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-5
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 15 yards to the VANDY13 (T. Ferguson), PENALTY MS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the VANDY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+17
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 17 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+34
99.7%
Evan Sobiesk 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
99.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
99.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Devon Bell punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
99.6%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, QB hurry by Ryan Brown, PENALTY MS pass interference (Taveze Calhoun) 7 yards to the VANDY33, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY, PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the VANDY48, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 8
50
0
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 8
50
0
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 8
50
+1
99.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 45 yds , Fred Ross returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
99.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+1
99.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+5
99.7%
Devon Bell punt for 41 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Ralph Webb for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+22
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Kris Kentera for 22 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
99.7%
Tommy Openshaw 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
99.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 14 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+24
99.8%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Vince Taylor) to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
99.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 21 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
99.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.8%
Nick Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 3Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Kellen Williams for 18 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete, broken up by Deontay EvansSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (Johnny McCrary) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 10 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Colby Cooke punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
99.8%
Damian Williams run for 11 yds to the MISSSTATE 48 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Darrius Sims) to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Dillon Day) to the Vandy 38Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+11
99.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 11 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Fred Brown, broken up by Taurean FergusonSimilar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.8%
Damian Williams run for 5 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+8
99.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Joe Morrow for 8 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.9%
Nick Griffin run for 1 yd to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 9Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Joe Morrow for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
20 plays · 67 yds · 6:010% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+16
99.9%
Johnny McCrary run for 16 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 2
50
+1
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Davis Dudchock for 9 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+14
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Steven Scheu for 14 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Davis Dudchock, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Caleb Scott (J.Irvin-Sills), PENALTY MS offside (Zach Jackson) 5 yards to the MS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Johnny McCrary pass incomplete to Steven ScheuSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Johnny McCrary run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
100.0%
Johnny McCrary run for 7 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-3
100.0%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 6
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Brandon WellsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 77 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
100.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jamoral Graham for 9 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+5
100.0%
Nick Griffin run for 5 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
100.0%
Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
100.0%
Nick Griffin run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+7
100.0%
Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
100.0%
Nick Griffin run for 7 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
100.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-2
100.0%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
100.0%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
100.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+19
100.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 19 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 14:01
Johnny McCrary pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 14 yds for a TD Latevius Rayford fumbled, forced by Christian Holmes, recovered by MisSt Christian Holmes , return for 51 yds, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 8:27
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+1
TD · Q1 5:05
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 27 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com