Try the model
MIZ

Missouri 29 at Tennessee 21

TENN
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.9TENN 53.2%Andrew Baggett 43 yd FG GOODAWAY 16 - HOME 13 · Q3 7:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:40 · Andrew Baggett 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+6.3Home team on offense−4.6Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:50: Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett PAT MISSED) — MIZ win probability +6.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:40: Andrew Baggett 43 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +3.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:42: Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 73 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +21.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:22: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett PAT MISSED) — MIZ win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:52: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Dobbs Run For Two-point Conversion) — TENN win probability +10.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:10TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53TENN 4th & 17 at MIZ 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:56MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:41TENN 4th & 2 at MIZ 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:22MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:14TENN 4th & 18 at MIZ 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:18MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:14TENN 4th & 8 at MIZ 31, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:49TENN 4th & 15 at MIZ 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:14MIZ 4th & 19 at MIZ 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:20TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:40MIZ 4th & 20 at TENN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:22TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−2.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:47MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 16, up 3
    Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:53MIZ 4th & 14 at TENN 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:21TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:14TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 46, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:23MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:14TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:50MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:42MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:22MIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:52TENN Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3233% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
66.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 24 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
66.6%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+9
66.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 9 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+9
66.4%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
66.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
66.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+13
66.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 13 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
65.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+15
65.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 15 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5765% → 64%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
64.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 3 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-3
64.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
64.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
63.8%
Matt Darr punt for 55 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for no gain to the Misso 35 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Cortland Browning) to the Misso 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3136% → 36%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
64.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+4
63.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
63.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
63.6%
Christian Brinser punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacob Carter at the Misso 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3464% → 62%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
64.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-2
63.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-8
63.3%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
62.1%
Matt Darr punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5238% → 38%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
62.3%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
62.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
62.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Brad McNulty) to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
62.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+14
62.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 42 yds , Jacob Carter returns for 14 yds to the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1064% → 64%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
63.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
63.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+3
62.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 3 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
64.0%
Aaron Medley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:1937% → 36%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
63.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Connor McGovern) to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
63.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
63.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
63.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob Carter at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5863% → 62%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
63.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 24 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
64.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 14 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
64.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
64.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-9
63.9%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Shane Ray and Harold Brantley for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 18
OPP 37
0
61.6%
Matt Darr punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5138% → 38%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
62.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 12 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
61.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
62.0%
Maty Mauk run for 4 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
61.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
62.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Carter at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:5462% → 66%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
61.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 11 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
61.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 21 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
63.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 13 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
64.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 5 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
64.0%
Marlin Lane run for no gain to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-3
63.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+31
66.0%
Patrick Ashford pass complete to Alex Ellis for 31 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1434% → 44%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
66.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 9 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
64.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
64.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 9 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
63.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+9
63.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
63.7%
Maty Mauk run for 20 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
62.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 9 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
56.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:4162% → 63%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
62.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 8 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-4
62.8%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+8
61.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 8 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
62.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Marlin Lane for 2 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
62.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
61.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
62.4%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Lucas Vincent for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 15
OPP 21
0
61.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alex EllisSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
59.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+39
62.8%
Aaron Medley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:2841% → 38%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
59.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Brad McNulty) to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-15
60.4%
Mauk, Maty pass complete to Hunt, Jimmie for 26 yards to the TENNESSEE40, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Hunt, Jimmie) 15 yards to the MISSOURI19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 30
OWN 19
+5
60.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 25
OWN 24
-6
60.4%
Maty Mauk sacked by Jordan Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 31
OWN 18
+12
61.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 12 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
61.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4463% → 63%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
63.3%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+6
62.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:3263% → 62%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
62.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 13 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
64.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
65.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Marcus Jackson) to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
65.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
63.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Vic WhartonSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
61.8%
Matt Darr punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 5:3341% → 47%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
59.5%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+9
59.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 9 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
58.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 15 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
58.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
57.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 14 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
55.7%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+15
55.6%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to Sasser, Bud, PENALTY TENNESSEE roughing passer (Barnett, Derek) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
53.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
54.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+10
55.5%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to Hunt, Jimmie, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Moseley, Emmanuel) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
54.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Jimmie Hunt) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
54.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 15
OPP 20
-10
54.8%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to Sasser, Bud, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Culkin, Sean) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 25
OPP 30
+9
55.6%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 16
OPP 21
-5
57.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Misso Maty MaukSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+43
53.2%
Andrew Baggett 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0754% → 52%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
54.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+17
53.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 17 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
54.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
53.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+7
51.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+3
51.7%
Matt Darr punt for 51 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 3 yds to the Misso 38 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3048% → 48%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
52.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 10Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
50.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taylor Chappell) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+6
51.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 6 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
52.2%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3256% → 53%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
56.0%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Josh Augusta for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 39 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by Tenn Joshua Dobbs , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+1
52.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 40 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by Misso Markus GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:3755% → 51%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.7%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
44.6%
Maty Mauk sacked by Danny O'Brien for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+16
47.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 16 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
42.1%
Maty Mauk sacked by Curt Maggitt for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+3
44.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
46.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
49.2%
Andrew Baggett 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1852% → 57%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
51.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
51.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
55.1%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Michael Scherer and Ian Simon for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-1
51.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Daniel Helm for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+12
49.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 12 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
54.0%
Dobbs, Joshua pass incomplete to Howard, Pig, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Johnson, David) 14 yards to the MISSOURI29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
57.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Kenya Dennis return for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3756% → 79%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.6%
Maty Mauk run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
41.8%
Maty Mauk run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
42.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
21.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 73 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0419% → 16%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
18.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
16.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
15.6%
Matt Darr punt for 39 yds, downed at the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:5384% → 96%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
16.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 35 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
14.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 8 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+6
13.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
13.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
12.4%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Tenn 13Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
3.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
18 plays · 79 yds · 4:196% → 15%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
6.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 20 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
6.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+8
6.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 8 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
6.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+2
6.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+6
5.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 6 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
4.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
4.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 6 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
4.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 6 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
4.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 23 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
4.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
4.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 8 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
4.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
4.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 4Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Dobbs Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1497% → 97%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
3.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
2.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-5
2.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+8
2.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 8 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:42
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 73 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q4 1:52
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Dobbs Run For Two-point Conversion)
+10.6
TD · Q4 6:22
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett PAT MISSED)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com