2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:44 · Marshall Morgan 49 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:18: Justin Scott-Wesley 19 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:42: Marshall Morgan 53 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:08: Nick Chubb 8 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:18: Chris Conley 23 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3CHSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 11:14CHSO 4th & 5 at CHSO 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 6:52CHSO 4th & 18 at CHSO 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 2:55CHSO 4th & 12 at CHSO 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 0:42UGA 4th & 2 at CHSO 36, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%57% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%−0.142% to makePunt98.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:04CHSO 4th & 7 at CHSO 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 7:32CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 25, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 4:44UGA 4th & 3 at CHSO 31, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%52% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−0.154% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:07CHSO 4th & 10 at UGA 28, down 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.4%60% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:46CHSO 4th & 2 at CHSO 41, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 4:58UGA 4th & 9 at CHSO 10, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%88% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:01CHSO 4th & 6 at CHSO 38, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:05CHSO 4th & 5 at CHSO 30, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CHSO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 13:08UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:33UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:18UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:08UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:18UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:31UGA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:59UGA Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:55CHSO Touchdown, down 46 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCHSODrive 1FUMBLE4 plays · 10 yds · 1:391% → 1%
UGADrive 2TD1 play · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.5%
Chris Conley 35 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 3PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.5%
Mike Holloway run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 27 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Quincy Mauger) to the ChaSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.4%
Austin Brown pass complete to Colton Korn for 4 yds to the ChaSo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD2 plays · 85 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
CHSODrive 5PUNT9 plays · 2 yds · 3:411% → 1%
Q1 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.3%
Austin Brown pass complete to Colton Korn for 4 yds to the ChaSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-6
99.3%
Austin Brown sacked by Toby Johnson and Sterling Bailey for a loss of 6 yards to the ChaSo 32Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 13
OWN 32
-5
99.3%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, False Start (Davion Anderson) to the ChaSo 27Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+6
99.3%
Truett Burns punt for 40 yds , Reggie Davis returns for 6 yds to the Geo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.3%
Mason, Hutson pass incomplete to Mitchell, Malcolm (McGowens, Troy), PENALTY CHASOTHERN pass interference (McGowens, Troy) 15 yards to the CHASOTHERN46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
99.3%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 17 yds to the ChaSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
Justin Scott-Wesley 19 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 7PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.4%
Austin Brown sacked by Jordan Jenkins for a loss of 6 yards to the ChaSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FG6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
CHSODrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Austin Brown run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 26 Austin Brown fumbled, recovered by ChaSoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD13 plays · 77 yds · 4:4899% → 100%
Q2 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+10
99.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 10 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
99.4%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dylan Black) to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
99.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 22 yds to the ChaSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.6%
Austin Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the ChaSo 21 Austin Brown fumbled, forced by Amarlo Herrera, recovered by ChaSo Austin BrownSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
99.6%
Austin Brown pass complete to Chris Theodore for 4 yds to the ChaSo 25Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Austin Brown pass incomplete to Chris Theodore, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12MISSED FG7 plays · 37 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
99.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 30 yds to the ChaSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.7%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Quayvon Hicks for 9 yds to the ChaSo 29Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-10
99.7%
Hicks, Quayvon rush for 5 yards to the CHASOTHERN25, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Andrews, David) 10 yards to the CHASOTHERN40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:120% → 0%
UGADrive 14TD1 play · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Chris Conley 23 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 15FG16 plays · 47 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q2 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+3
99.8%
Austin Brown pass complete to Mike Holloway for 3 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD12 plays · 74 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q3 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+20
99.8%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 20 yds to the ChaSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Kenneth Towns for no gain to the ChaSo 40Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
Ramsey, Brice pass incomplete to Rumph, Jonathon, PENALTY CHASOTHERN pass interference (Jackson, Malcolm) 15 yards to the CHASOTHERN25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Shakenneth Williams for 13 yds to the ChaSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Jonathon Rumph 12 Yd pass from Brice Ramsey (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 18 yds · 3:140% → 0%
Q3 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Daniel Croghan III pass complete to Mike Holloway for 3 yds to the ChaSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG8 plays · 30 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
CHSODrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 3:01
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+35
100.0%
Truett Burns punt for 35 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
99.9%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Jordan Davis for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 14:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Truett Burns punt for 29 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 4 yds to the Geo 45 Isaiah McKenzie fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23INT3 plays · 15 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
CHSODrive 24TD7 plays · 71 yds · 2:550% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25FUMBLE11 plays · 61 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+18
100.0%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Jordan Davis for 18 yds to the ChaSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+13
100.0%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Shakenneth Williams for 13 yds to the ChaSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Kyle Karempelis run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 10 Kyle Karempelis fumbled, recovered by ChaSo JaJuan Perkins , return for 1 yd to the ChaSo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 41 yds · 4:000% → 0%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Daniel Croghan III pass complete to Mike Holloway for 3 yds to the ChaSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:18
Justin Scott-Wesley 19 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)
+0.1
FG · Q1 0:42
Marshall Morgan 53 Yd Field Goal
+0.1
TD · Q2 9:08
Nick Chubb 8 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)
+0.1