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AUB

Auburn 44 at Alabama 55

ALA
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.8ALA 34.0%Daniel Carlson 33 Yd Field GoalAWAY 36 - HOME 27 · Q3 3:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:30 · Daniel Carlson 33 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+6.0Home team on offense−15.6Score differential−7.2Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:54: Sammie Coates 68 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +15.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:02: Quan Bray 5 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +11.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:01: Amari Cooper 39 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Gunnar Raborn PAT blocked) — ALA win probability +17.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q3 3:20: Amari Cooper 75 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +19.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 14:33: Blake Sims 11 Yd Run (Blake Sims Pass to DeAndrew White for Two-Point Conversion) — ALA win probability +21.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:08AUB 4th & 3 at ALA 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:24AUB 4th & 1 at ALA 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57AUB 4th & 7 at ALA 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:12ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 7, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:42AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−10.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:22ALA 4th & 3 at AUB 42, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−2.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:30AUB 4th & 5 at ALA 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−10.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:54AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:55AUB 4th & 8 at ALA 14, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:13AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 37, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:47ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:17ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:16AUB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23ALA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:54AUB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:02AUB Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:01ALA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:20ALA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:33ALA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:05ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:46ALA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:20AUB Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
69.4%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 35 Roc Thomas fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:0369% → 70%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
69.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+16
69.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 16 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
69.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
69.5%
Jalston Fowler run for 2 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
70.0%
T.J. Yeldon 8 Yd Run (Gunnar Raborn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:2730% → 30%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Corey Grant for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
70.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 13 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
69.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Alab 38 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+28
69.8%
Nick Marshall run for 28 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
69.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
69.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
69.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
69.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
69.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Alab 3Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
69.7%
Daniel Carlson 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4369% → 73%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
69.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 16 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
70.2%
Jalston Fowler run for 1 yd to the Aub 48 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kris Frost) to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
70.4%
Christion Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+20
69.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 20 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
72.8%
Amari Cooper 17 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Gunnar Raborn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:1328% → 27%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.4%
Nick Marshall run for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
72.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+42
72.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 42 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
71.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
71.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
72.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+1
74.0%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.4%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.4%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to C.J. UzomahSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q1 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
73.4%
Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3873% → 72%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
72.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
72.9%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
72.1%
JK Scott punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 5:0226% → 29%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.8%
Nick Marshall run for no gain to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
74.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
74.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 11 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
73.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 15 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
73.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+19
73.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 19 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
72.7%
Corey Grant run for 12 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
72.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 7 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-5
72.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
72.1%
Nick Marshall run for no gain to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+9
73.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 9 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
72.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+4
72.6%
Corey Grant run for 4 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+9
72.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 9 yds to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-2
73.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
71.1%
Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
71.4%
Blake Sims pass intercepted Jermaine Whitehead return for 5 yds to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:1830% → 37%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
69.9%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+34
62.6%
Sammie Coates 34 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5466% → 64%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
67.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 13 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
67.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
68.0%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-7
67.5%
Blake Sims sacked by Anthony Swain for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+46
64.2%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the ALABAMA 15 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Fair Catch Signal (Quan Bray) to the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:2537% → 37%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
63.5%
Corey Grant run for 13 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
63.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 5 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
62.1%
Marcus Davis run for 2 yds to the Aub 30 Marcus Davis fumbled, recovered by Aub Marcus DavisSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+21
62.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 21 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
59.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
60.8%
Nick Marshall run for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
61.5%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+29
62.8%
Daniel Carlson punt for 38 yds , Christion Jones returns for 29 yds to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:1166% → 74%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
65.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 15 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
66.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 13 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
67.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 21 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
66.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.7%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
64.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
T.J. Yeldon 1 Yd Run (Gunnar Raborn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1926% → 41%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.1%
Nick Marshall run for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
59.0%
Sammie Coates 68 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:1161% → 62%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
61.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 11 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
62.0%
Blake Sims pass intercepted Johnathan Ford return for 14 yds to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:2844% → 57%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+40
56.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 40 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
55.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 3Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
43.5%
Daniel Carlson 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3655% → 55%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
55.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
54.9%
Blake Sims pass intercepted Jonathan Jones return for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:5852% → 66%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
48.0%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+13
46.4%
Quan Bray run for 13 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
46.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
45.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 10 yds to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
45.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
44.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 1 yd to the Alab 5Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
33.7%
Quan Bray 5 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4937% → 53%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
36.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for 16 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
37.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
38.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
37.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+7
35.9%
Blake Sims run for 7 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+3
35.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 3 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
52.7%
Amari Cooper 39 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Gunnar Raborn PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:1756% → 66%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
44.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
44.3%
Nick Marshall run for no gain to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+16
45.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 16 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
41.3%
Quan Bray run for 7 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
39.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+35
39.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 35 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
36.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 8 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 2
OPP 13
-3
36.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 16Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
36.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
34.0%
Daniel Carlson 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
54.8%
Amari Cooper 75 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1249% → 49%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
51.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+13
51.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 13 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
50.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
49.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Cameron Artis-PayneSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+23
50.9%
Nick Marshall pass intercepted Nick Perry return for 23 yds to the Aub 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:5761% → 82%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
61.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
61.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+16
58.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 16 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
60.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Leon Brown) to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
60.6%
Blake Sims run for 2 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
82.1%
Blake Sims 11 Yd Run (Blake Sims Pass to DeAndrew White for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2828% → 25%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.1%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
72.5%
Quan Bray run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-4
74.0%
Nick Marshall sacked by Xzavier Dickson for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 13
OWN 23
-5
75.4%
Daniel Carlson punt for 44 yds , Christion Jones returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:4481% → 94%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
81.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 8 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+25
82.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 25 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
83.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
83.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 15 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
86.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 9 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-10
86.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Kelly) to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+10
86.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 10 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+8
86.2%
Jalston Fowler run for 8 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
87.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.1%
DeAndrew White 6 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 62 yds · 0:568% → 8%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+53
91.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 53 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
90.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
90.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
91.3%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+7
92.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 7 yds to the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 3:0494% → 99%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
94.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+1
94.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+10
94.8%
Blake Sims run for 10 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+49
95.2%
Derrick Henry run for 49 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.1%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.9%
Derrick Henry 25 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 3:012% → 5%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
98.2%
Nick Marshall sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+13
98.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+12
98.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 12 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.8%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
97.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Corey Grant for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+12
98.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Corey Grant for 12 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
97.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 10 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.6%
Corey Grant run for 5 yds for a TD, (N. Marshall Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:33
Blake Sims 11 Yd Run (Blake Sims Pass to DeAndrew White for Two-Point Conversion)
+21.4
TD · Q3 3:20
Amari Cooper 75 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)
+19.8
TD · Q3 8:01
Amari Cooper 39 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Gunnar Raborn PAT blocked)
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com