Try the model
BYU

BYU 42 at California 35

CAL
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:36 · Cole Leininger punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+10.0Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:12: Tre Watson run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +15.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:08: Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +21.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:49: Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 83 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +26.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:17: Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +26.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:39: Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 38 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +36.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:32BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:36CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:52BYU 4th & 1 at CAL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:38BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26CAL 4th & 23 at CAL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:29BYU 4th & 27 at CAL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31CAL 4th & 16 at BYU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at BYU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.9%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 9 at BYU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:40BYU 4th & 2 at CAL 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−3.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:42CAL 4th & 8 at BYU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−1.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:17BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:54CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:53CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%−5.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:14CAL 4th & 14 at BYU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−4.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:18BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:37CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:04BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:44CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:29CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:12BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:12CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:08BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:49BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:17CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:39BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:4238% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
61.9%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+11
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
61.9%
STEWART,Christ pass incomplete to MATHEWS,Mitch (White, Darius), PENALTY CAL pass interference (White, Darius) 15 yards to the CAL43, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
61.9%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+15
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 15 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
61.9%
STEWART,Christ pass incomplete to HOUK,Terenn, PENALTY CAL personal foul (McClure, Stefan) 13 yards to the CAL13, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+12
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 12 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.9%
Christian Stewart run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 4:3961% → 63%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
60.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 14 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
60.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
61.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 8 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.1%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
61.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 4
50
+9
61.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 9 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
61.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+11
61.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 11 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
61.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 9 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
61.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Jordan PreatorSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
61.2%
BYU Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.3%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
62.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 9 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.4%
Christian Stewart run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
61.4%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
61.6%
STEWART,Christ pass intercepted by Lowe, Michael at the CAL49, Lowe, Michael return to the CAL49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CAL holding (White, Darius) 10 yards to the BYU34, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
61.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 5 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
60.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
61.1%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
61.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 53 yds, downed at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
61.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
61.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor Davis, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+20
60.9%
Jared Goff run for 10 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive holding (Robertson Daniel) to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
61.6%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
62.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
61.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
61.5%
Cole Leininger punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:4839% → 46%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+30
61.1%
Paul Lasike run for 30 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Adam HineSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
59.9%
Christian Stewart run for 7 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
59.9%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
60.6%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
59.5%
BYU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Paul Lasike) to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
54.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 47 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1456% → 64%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
55.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 7 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+8
56.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 8 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
56.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 22 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
57.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+10
57.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 10 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
63.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 16 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
60.2%
STEWART,Christ pass incomplete to LESLIE,Jordan (Allensworth, Da), PENALTY BYU pass interference (HOUK,Terenn) 10 yards to the BYU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+9
60.4%
Paul Lasike run for 9 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
60.3%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Devin MahinaSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+3
61.3%
Scott Arellano punt for 52 yds , Chris Harper returns for 3 yds to the Cal 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
61.5%
Jared Goff run for 9 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-15
62.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Maurice Harris) to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
61.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete, broken up by Alani FuaSimilar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 16
OWN 20
-7
60.3%
Jared Goff sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 23
OWN 13
0
59.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
58.0%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted Caleb Coleman return for 4 yds to the Cal 43 BYU Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2762% → 71%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
61.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
62.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 8 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
62.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
62.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 6 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
62.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Matt Rockett for 7 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+41
63.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 41 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
63.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 2Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.7%
Christian Stewart run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
68.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 4 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
68.6%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
69.0%
Algernon Brown run for 6 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
67.7%
STEWART,Christ pass incomplete to LESLIE,Jordan (Allensworth, Da), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Allensworth, Da) 15 yards to the CAL45, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.6%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
66.7%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
66.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 10 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan Leslie, broken up by Darius AllensworthSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
65.6%
Christian Stewart sacked by Devante Downs for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-16
67.6%
Christian Stewart sacked by Jalen Jefferson for a loss of 16 yards to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 27
OPP 49
0
69.5%
Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Harper at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12MISSED FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 3:0771% → 70%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
70.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+9
70.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
70.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
70.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Matt Rockett for 6 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
71.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
50
+9
72.6%
Jared Goff run for 9 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+15
72.7%
BYU Penalty, personal foul (Teu Kautai) to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
72.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
73.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-5
72.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Caleb Coleman) to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
71.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+50
69.9%
James Langford 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
70.7%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the BYU 34 BYU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 18
OWN 24
-1
71.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper CALIFORNIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
70.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
73.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
50
+1
73.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
72.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Vic EnwereSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
71.7%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
73.8%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
73.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper, broken up by Skye PoVeySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
72.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
70.8%
Cole Leininger punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:2828% → 47%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+39
71.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 39 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
68.7%
Christian Stewart sacked by Michael Barton for a loss of 8 yards to the CALIFORNIA 46 BYU Penalty, intentional grounding (Christian Stewart) to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+14
71.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 14 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
69.0%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+13
70.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 13 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
66.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
67.3%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
52.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Algernon Brown for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
60.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+27
60.2%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Skye PoVey return for 27 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
51.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
51.5%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+29
53.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 29 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+22
51.0%
Christian Stewart run for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 33 Christian Stewart fumbled, recovered by Cal Stefan McClure , return for 22 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:1360% → 80%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
60.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+11
62.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
63.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
63.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 6 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
63.1%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
63.7%
Goff, Jared sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BYU44 (JACKSON,Harvey), PENALTY BYU face mask (FUA,Alani) 15 yards to the BYU22, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
64.7%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+10
64.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 10 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.4%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:5626% → 52%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
74.1%
Adam Hine run for 10 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
73.7%
Adam Hine run for 7 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
71.7%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+9
71.7%
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
72.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+12
73.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 12 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
70.6%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+28
70.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 28 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
48.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2659% → 62%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
61.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 16 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
62.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 10 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.7%
Jared Goff run for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line Jared Goff fumbled, recovered by Cal Jared Goff , return to the 50 yard line , return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
50
+10
60.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 10 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
62.7%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
61.6%
Luke Rubenzer punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 1:4443% → 71%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
56.8%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+9
57.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Algernon Brown for 9 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+5
57.2%
Paul Lasike run for 5 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
55.6%
Christian Stewart run for 2 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+83
28.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 83 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3132% → 67%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+20
32.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 20 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
35.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+9
37.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 9 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
38.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 11 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
40.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+23
67.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.4%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
53.2%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
54.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 7 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
51.8%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
49.9%
Christian Stewart run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
50.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Devin Mahina, broken up by Darius AllensworthSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
54.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds, downed at the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
58.6%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
58.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete, broken up by Alani FuaSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+11
56.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 11 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
59.7%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
56.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 7 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
57.6%
Cole Leininger punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:4849% → 90%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
50.9%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+11
50.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
47.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+7
45.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 7 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
9.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 38 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 53 yds · 2:2121% → 10%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
20.5%
Jared Goff run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
20.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+8
14.6%
Jared Goff run for 8 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+12
16.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 12 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
20.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Alani FuaSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
19.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
23.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
19.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Skye PoVeySimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
19.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper, broken up by Robertson DanielSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+26
13.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 26 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
20.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Trevor Davis) to the BYU 14Similar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
13.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
12.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
10.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
0
9.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
5.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:39
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 38 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-36.3
TD · Q4 11:49
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 83 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-26.7
TD · Q4 9:17
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
+26.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com