2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Gesa Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:20 · Korey Durkee punt for 42 yds, downed at the WASHST 14 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the WshSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:50: Cyler Miles pass complete to Kasen Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +9.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:15: Dwayne Washington run for 60 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +11.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:07: Cameron Van Winkle 18 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +4.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:30: Cyler Miles pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:55: Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 35 yds for a TD, (Quentin Breshears KICK) — WSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 15:00WSU 4th & 2 at WASH 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.0%57% to convertField goal40.9%−0.230% to makePunt40.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:24WSU 4th & 1 at WASH 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.1%71% to convertField goal40.9%−0.277% to makePunt40.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:00WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it59.2%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q1 5:01WSU 4th & 5 at WASH 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.7%42% to convertField goal40.6%−0.151% to makePunt40.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00WASH 4th & 2 at WSU 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.5%57% to convertField goal60.7%−0.849% to makePunt60.2%−1.3average punt
- Q2 12:30WSU 4th & 24 at WSU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it36.2%−2.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%average punt
- Q2 9:20WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it60.0%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.6%average punt
- Q2 6:52WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 29, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it37.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.3%−1.9average punt
- Q2 3:52WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it61.9%−1.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%average punt
- Q2 0:04WASH 4th & 5 at WSU 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.8%42% to convertField goal76.3%−1.528% to makePunt77.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 14:09WSU 4th & 20 at WSU 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it14.1%−1.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q3 12:25WASH 4th & 8 at WSU 41, up 21Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it90.0%34% to convertField goal89.4%−0.632% to makePuntTheir call89.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 3:07WASH 4th & 1 at WSU 1, up 21Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.6%59% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%−1.194% to makePunt91.7%−3.8average punt
- Q3 3:02WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 47, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q4 9:55WSU 4th & 10 at WASH 35, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.4%45% to makePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:50WASH 4th & 4 at WSU 31, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%48% to convertField goal99.0%−0.154% to makePunt98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:44WSU 4th & 17 at WASH 40, down 24Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−<0.115% to convertField goal0.9%−<0.134% to makePunt0.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:24WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.7%97% to makeGo for two58.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:50WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.6%97% to makeGo for two72.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:15WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:30WASH Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:55WSU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:00WSU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick1.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
WASHDrive 2TD2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3653% → 54%
WSUDrive 3DOWNS10 plays · 56 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
46.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 21 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+5
46.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 5 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
46.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 13 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
45.3%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dwayne Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 19Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+11
45.6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 11 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
45.1%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 13 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 60 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+39
44.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Vince Mayle for 39 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
50
0
46.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 10
50
+13
45.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 13 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6INT10 plays · 45 yds · 1:5057% → 58%
Q1 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+20
42.6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 20 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
42.4%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 5 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
41.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 3 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
42.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the WshSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+10
41.9%
Cyler Miles pass intercepted Cyrus Coen return for 10 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+13
43.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 13 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
43.6%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Baker, Tyler, PENALTY WASH holding (Ross, John) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
50
0
44.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
50
-9
44.5%
Luke Falk sacked by Evan Hudson and Hau'oli Kikaha for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 41Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 24
OWN 36
0
42.0%
Jordan Dascalo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
41.4%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to John Ross, broken up by Marcellus PippinsSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
41.8%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 11 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
40.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 11 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
40.0%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 45Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-1
40.8%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dwayne Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 14
OWN 44
+49
42.5%
Korey Durkee punt for 42 yds, downed at the WASHST 14 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the WshSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
38.7%
Dwayne Washington run for 3 yds to the Wash 27 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Xavier Cooper) to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
WASHDrive 12TD6 plays · 27 yds · 0:4667% → 76%
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+17
34.2%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 11 yds to the WshSt 12 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jeremiah Allison) to the WshSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kasen Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
27.7%
Luke Falk pass intercepted John Ross return for no gain to the WshSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3175% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4075% → 87%
WSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
16.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Theron West for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 26Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-8
16.6%
Luke Falk sacked by Danny Shelton and Andrew Hudson for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 18Similar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
16.7%
Jordan Dascalo punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the WshSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
11.0%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for 3 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-5
12.2%
Lindquist, Jeff pass complete to Hudson, Evan for 26 yards to the WSU10 (Cracraft, River), QB hurry by Lemora, Darius, PENALTY WASH illegal formation 5 yards to the WSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
12.0%
Korey Durkee punt for 24 yds, fair catch by River Cracraft at the WshSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18INT5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
14.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 10 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+18
15.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Theron West for 18 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
16.0%
Luke Falk pass intercepted Kevin King return for no gain to the Wash 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19FG17 plays · 64 yds · 6:1191% → 96%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
9.1%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dante Pettis for 23 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
8.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 30Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+13
8.6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Michael Hartvigson for 13 yds to the WshSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
8.3%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kasen Williams for 9 yds to the WshSt 8Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+2
8.3%
Miles, Cyler pass incomplete to Williams, Kasen, PENALTY WSU holding (Pippins, Mar.) 2 yards to the WSU1, 1ST DOWN WASH, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
8.2%
Cyler Miles sacked by Peyton Pelluer for a loss of 10 yards to the WshSt 11Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
8.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kasen Williams for 10 yds to the WshSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
5.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isiah Myers for 22 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-6
5.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 4 yds to the WshSt 43 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Robert Lewis) to the WshSt 47Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
5.2%
Jordan Dascalo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21TD10 plays · 85 yds · 3:5997% → 99%
Q3 1:29
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+24
3.4%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dante Pettis for 24 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+24
2.8%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Marvin Hall for 9 yds to the WASHST 49 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, personal foul (Taylor Taliulu) to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-3
2.6%
Lavon Coleman run for 7 yds to the WshSt 24 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive holding (Brayden Lenius) to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+11
2.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for 11 yds to the WshSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
0.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22TD10 plays · 65 yds · 2:351% → 3%
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
0.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 19 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
0.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Vince Mayle for 11 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
0.6%
Luke Falk sacked by Andrew Hudson for a loss of 10 yards to the Wash 45Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 20
OPP 45
0
0.5%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Vince Mayle, broken up by Brandon BeaverSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+15
0.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 15 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+35
2.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 35 yds for a TD, (Quentin Breshears KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23DOWNS13 plays · 54 yds · 5:5999% → 99%
WSUDrive 24TD9 plays · 69 yds · 2:441% → 2%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
1.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isiah Myers for 24 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
1.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
1.3%
Luke Falk sacked by Joe Mathis for a loss of 7 yards to the Wash 40Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
1.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Vince Mayle, broken up by Darren GardenhireSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 17
OPP 40
+20
1.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isiah Myers for 20 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
1.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 14 yds to the Wash 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:15
Dwayne Washington run for 60 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 0:50
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kasen Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
-9.3
FG · Q3 3:07
Cameron Van Winkle 18 yd FG GOOD
-4.6