Try the model
ND

Notre Dame 14 at USC 49

USC
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:54 · Anthony Neyer run for 3 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+28.2Pregame prior+0.3Blowout margin+13.0Garbage-time factor+13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:50: George Farmer 48 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick) — USC win probability +2.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:36: Adoree' Jackson 16 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick) — USC win probability +4.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:43: George Farmer 31 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick) — USC win probability +5.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:51: Darreus Rogers 6 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick) — USC win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:15: Nelson Agholor 14 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick) — USC win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:48ND 4th & 14 at ND 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16USC 4th & 20 at ND 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28ND 4th & 10 at ND 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37ND 4th & 13 at ND 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:08ND 4th & 11 at ND 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:42USC 4th & 5 at USC 45, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:09ND 4th & 9 at USC 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:35USC 4th & 8 at ND 31, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00ND 4th & 11 at ND 36, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:44USC 4th & 3 at ND 17, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:18ND 4th & 10 at USC 10, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:54USC 4th & 1 at USC 41, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:50USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:43USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:51USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:15USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:11ND Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:19USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:02USC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:48ND Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0530% → 30%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
69.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
69.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
69.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
69.9%
Kyle Brindza punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:1670% → 69%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
69.8%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+7
69.9%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
69.9%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 6
50
0
69.9%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
50
+10
69.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
69.9%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
70.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
70.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (Javorius Allen) to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+2
69.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-7
69.5%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jaylon Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 20
OPP 35
0
69.2%
Cody Kessler punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:3831% → 31%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
69.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
68.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+14
69.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 14 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
68.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
68.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
69.1%
Kyle Brindza punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3169% → 72%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
68.9%
Javorius Allen run for 15 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
69.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
69.4%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
50
+2
69.4%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+48
71.8%
George Farmer 48 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5629% → 28%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
71.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 5 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-8
71.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NDame Everett GolsonSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
71.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
72.0%
Kyle Brindza punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:5472% → 77%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
72.3%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Smith, JuJu, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Luke, Cole) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.4%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
72.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+10
72.2%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
72.7%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
72.8%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
72.5%
Cody Kessler run for 1 yd to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
76.8%
Adoree' Jackson 16 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0525% → 24%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
75.3%
Everett Golson sacked by J.R. Tavai and Claude Pelon for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
75.9%
Kyle Brindza punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:1977% → 83%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
77.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 7 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+13
77.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 13 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
77.7%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
83.3%
George Farmer 31 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1417% → 14%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
83.0%
Tarean Folston run for 9 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+1
83.3%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
83.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 14 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
83.7%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
84.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
84.8%
Golson, Everett pass complete to Fuller, William for 4 yards to the USC48, PENALTY USC offside 5 yards to the USC47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Tarean FolstonSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
85.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+24
85.6%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Gerald Bowman return for 24 yds to the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:2087% → 93%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
86.7%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+11
86.9%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
87.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 14 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
87.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 6 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
87.5%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.4%
Darreus Rogers 6 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:437% → 7%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.8%
Greg Bryant run for 5 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-8
92.8%
Everett Golson sacked by J.R. Tavai for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+23
93.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
93.4%
Greg Bryant run for 6 yds to the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4495% → 97%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
95.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 13 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
95.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Grant Blankenship for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+3
95.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+17
95.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 17 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
96.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 4 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+8
96.2%
Cody Kessler run for 8 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
96.7%
Nelson Agholor 14 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.3%
Greg Bryant run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+49
97.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Brown for 49 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.2%
Malik Zaire 11 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2197% → 98%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
96.5%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.0%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 40Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
97.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-3
96.9%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Bryant at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 1:163% → 4%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
97.5%
Cam McDaniel run for 6 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Cam McDaniel run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+19
96.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Corey Robinson for 19 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+26
97.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to William Fuller for 26 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
97.5%
Malik Zaire run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
97.3%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to William Fuller, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
96.5%
Kyle Brindza 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3398% → 99%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
George Farmer run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
98.3%
Javorius Allen run for 10 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
98.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 13 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 3 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+12
98.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 12 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
98.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 2 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
98.8%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+22
98.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 22 yds to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith, broken up by Devin ButlerSimilar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.1%
Randall Telfer 9 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
99.0%
Malik Zaire run for 14 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.0%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Tarean Folston for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Kyle Brindza punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.2%
Cody Kessler run for 9 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
99.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Bryce Dixon) to the USC 34Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce Dixon, broken up by Romeo OkwaraSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+13
99.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 13 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.3%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
99.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 8 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
99.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Toa Lobendahn) to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+14
99.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 14 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+11
99.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell for 11 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
99.6%
Justin Davis 16 Yd Run (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:040% → 1%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.6%
Malik Zaire pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.6%
Malik Zaire pass complete to William Fuller for 10 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
99.6%
Greg Bryant run for 16 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.6%
Malik Zaire run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Malik Zaire pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 5 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
99.6%
Greg Bryant run for 27 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Greg Bryant 1 Yd Run (Kyle Brindza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21DOWNS
18 plays · 57 yds · 9:58100% → 100%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.6%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 27 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Max Tuerk) to the USC 17Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+7
99.6%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
99.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.7%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 3
50
+5
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
99.9%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+1
99.9%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 3
OPP 17
-1
99.9%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+11
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Ben Koyack for 11 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+40
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 40 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
99.9%
Greg Bryant run for 20 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.9%
Malik Zaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-11
99.9%
Malik Zaire sacked by J.R. Tavai for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.9%
James Toland run for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
James Toland run for 4 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
James Toland run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
James Toland run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
James Toland run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Anthony Neyer run for 3 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
100.0%
Anthony Neyer run for 2 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Romeo Okwara) to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
James Toland run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:51
Darreus Rogers 6 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)
+6
TD · Q1 0:43
George Farmer 31 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)
+5.5
TD · Q1 3:36
Adoree' Jackson 16 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com