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ASU

Arizona State 35 at Arizona 42

ARIZ
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:46 · TEAM punt blocked by Cayleb Jones blocked by Cayleb Jones
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense−1.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Pregame prior+2.3Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:41: Nick Wilson 21 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick) — ARIZ win probability +12.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Demario Richard 7 Yd pass from Taylor Kelly (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +12.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:06: Nick Wilson 72 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick) — ARIZ win probability +15.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:23: Kody Kohl 2 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +14.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:02: De'Marieya Nelson 9 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +14.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:06ASU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22ARIZ 4th & 25 at ARIZ 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.8
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:55ASU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48ASU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:07ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14ARIZ 4th & 3 at ASU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:46ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:41ARIZ 4th & 1 at ASU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−1.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:15ASU 4th & 24 at ASU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:18ASU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:44ASU 4th & 20 at ASU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−2.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:30ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:43ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:36ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:51ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:50ASU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−1.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:56ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:07ASU 4th & 12 at ARIZ 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:16ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:54ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:24ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:22ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:06ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:23ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:31ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:02ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2946% → 46%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.8%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
53.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-25
54.2%
Anthony Lopez 25 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:5846% → 45%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.3%
Taylor Kelly run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
54.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Sulka) to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.8%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
55.1%
Deantre Lewis run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+8
54.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 8 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-3
55.1%
Taylor Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
55.2%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
55.4%
Matt Haack punt for 27 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:3156% → 56%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
55.7%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 18Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
55.9%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the Ariz 18Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-15
56.0%
Anu Solomon sacked by Armand Perry for a loss of 15 yards to the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 25
OWN 3
0
55.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2045% → 43%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
55.5%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
55.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+21
55.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 21 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
55.8%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.8%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.3%
Taylor Kelly run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
56.8%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4457% → 54%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
57.4%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
57.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+13
57.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 13 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
54.4%
Demetrius Cherry 2 Yd Fumble Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4455% → 58%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.5%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
55.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
58.1%
Samajie Grant 69 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5742% → 41%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.4%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
58.4%
D.J. Foster run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
58.2%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
58.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
58.3%
Deantre Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+6
58.8%
Taylor Kelly run for 6 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
58.9%
Taylor Kelly punt for 46 yds, downed at the Ariz 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2359% → 59%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
59.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+4
59.7%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
59.8%
Anu Solomon sacked by James Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 7Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 18
OWN 7
0
59.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 18
OWN 7
+10
59.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 10 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
58.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0740% → 49%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.9%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
59.3%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
59.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
59.8%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+50
60.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 50 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
57.6%
Frederick Gammage run for 5 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+8
57.7%
Taylor Kelly run for 8 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
57.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Grant MartinezSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.1%
Jaelen Strong 3 Yd pass from Taylor Kelly (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2156% → 56%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
55.6%
Anu Solomon sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+12
55.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+9
56.5%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
57.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
58.1%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-1
57.7%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
56.3%
Drew Riggleman punt for 35 yds , Kyle Middlebrooks returns for no gain to the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1947% → 46%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
52.8%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
52.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 1 yd to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-5
53.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+15
53.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.3%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
52.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
53.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+7
54.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Cayleb Jones blocked by Cayleb JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:4159% → 70%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
59.1%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
59.2%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
58.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for no gain to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+21
70.2%
Nick Wilson 21 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1935% → 33%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
65.0%
Demario Richard run for 27 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.4%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
63.1%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Dan Pettinato for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-10
65.8%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Jared Tevis for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 24
OWN 38
0
67.2%
Matt Haack punt for 50 yds , DaVonte' Neal returns for no gain to the Ariz 12 DaVonte' Neal fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Mitchell FraboniSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4640% → 53%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
59.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
59.9%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
47.2%
Demario Richard 7 Yd pass from Taylor Kelly (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
53.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3057% → 72%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
56.6%
Nick Wilson run for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
57.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Cayleb Jones) to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+4
56.4%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+15
56.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 15 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
60.0%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
60.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.6%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+31
60.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 31 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.8%
Nick Wilson 1 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4832% → 32%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 14 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
66.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
66.0%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
50
+16
65.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 16 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
64.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for no gain to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
64.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 6 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
66.0%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
68.4%
Zane Gonzalez 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
84.0%
Nick Wilson 72 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0618% → 15%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
82.4%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+8
81.8%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
81.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 10 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
81.6%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete to Strong, Jaelen, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZONA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA STSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
80.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-3
81.5%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Dan Pettinato for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
-8
83.1%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Tra'Mayne Bondurant for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
84.6%
Matt Haack punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:5687% → 87%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
86.8%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+7
87.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 7 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
86.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.8%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
87.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 7 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-13
88.0%
Wilson, Nick rush for 1 yard to the ARIZONA38, PENALTY ARIZONA personal foul 13 yards to the ARIZONA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Drew Riggleman punt for 62 yds, downed at the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3213% → 11%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
86.8%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
87.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+15
87.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 15 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
87.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
88.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
88.8%
Matt Haack punt for 50 yds , DaVonte' Neal returns for no gain to the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4992% → 91%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.9%
Anu Solomon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-7
92.0%
Anu Solomon sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+2
91.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+12
91.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 55 yds , Kyle Middlebrooks returns for 12 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0611% → 27%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
50
+21
88.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 21 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
87.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
87.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 6 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+9
88.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 9 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
88.1%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.5%
Kody Kohl 2 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2484% → 84%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
83.8%
Nick Wilson run for 24 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
86.5%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
85.6%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
84.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
83.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArzSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2519% → 19%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
80.7%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+5
81.2%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted Jourdon Grandon return for 5 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:2988% → 95%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
87.6%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+20
95.2%
Samajie Grant 20 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:088% → 24%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
92.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 12 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
91.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
91.5%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
92.1%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Jeff Worthy for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+7
93.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Deantre Lewis for 7 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+12
92.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 12 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
91.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 24 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.5%
De'Marieya Nelson 9 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5289% → 91%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
91.6%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.8%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+18
90.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 45 yds , Kyle Middlebrooks returns for 18 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29DOWNS
11 plays · 17 yds · 1:4416% → 9%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-9
84.2%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+15
89.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tra'Mayne Bondurant) to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
85.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
85.1%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
85.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
86.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
87.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
91.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:5197% → 96%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 39Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-15
96.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 26
OWN 24
+5
96.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 21
OWN 29
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 23
OWN 27
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:06
Nick Wilson 72 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)
+15.6
TD · Q4 5:02
De'Marieya Nelson 9 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
-14.8
TD · Q4 11:23
Kody Kohl 2 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com