Try the model
STAN

Stanford 38 at California 17

CAL
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:22 · Cole Leininger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the Stanf 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense−14.8Score differential−7.6Pregame prior−11.9Garbage-time factor−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:26: Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +6.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 7:59: Remound Wright run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +5.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:22: Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +11.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:16: Remound Wright 2 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick) — STAN win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:36: Remound Wright run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:38CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:26STAN 4th & 3 at CAL 7, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:09STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:22CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:13STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 15, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 10 at STAN 27, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:36CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:50STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 37, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:44STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 32, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:38STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:26CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:59STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:22STAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:16STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:36STAN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:40CAL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2272% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
28.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 18 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Michael Lowe) to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
28.5%
Remound Wright run for 30 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
28.5%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
28.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+6
28.5%
Hogan,K pass incomplete to Montgomery,T (White, Darius), PENALTY CAL pass interference (White, Darius) 6 yards to the CAL2, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
28.5%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.7%
Remound Wright 1 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 22 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce Treggs, broken up by Zach HoffpauirSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
29.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
28.9%
Jared Goff run for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
28.9%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
28.8%
Cole Leininger punt for 26 yds, downed at the Stanf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:5571% → 71%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
29.0%
Kelsey Young run for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+14
29.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 14 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
28.8%
Kelsey Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 7
50
+13
28.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 13 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
28.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+21
28.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 21 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
28.7%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
28.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+4
28.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 4 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
28.9%
Jordan Williamson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FUMBLE
12 plays · 75 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
29.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 6 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
29.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 15 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
30.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
30.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
30.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 18 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
30.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
30.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 8 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
30.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Kyle OlugbodeSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+7
30.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Stanf 7 Daniel Lasco fumbled, forced by Blake Martinez, recovered by Stanf A.J. Tarpley , return for 7 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
29.1%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
29.0%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Stanf 12Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
29.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+16
29.5%
Ben Rhyne punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 47 , Trevor Davis returns for 16 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:0829% → 36%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
29.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+28
29.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 28 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
29.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 6 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
36.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 6:2067% → 74%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
33.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+14
32.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 14 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
32.3%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
50
+7
32.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
32.1%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
32.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+16
32.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 16 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
31.6%
Barry Sanders run for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
31.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Kelsey Young for 18 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
31.6%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.7%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8INT
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
27.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
26.8%
Luke Rubenzer run for 15 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
28.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+10
28.3%
Jared Goff run for 10 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
28.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 7 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
29.1%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Blake Martinez return for 2 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9INT
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
26.7%
Michael Rector run for 23 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
25.6%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Darius White return for no gain to the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
26.0%
Luke Rubenzer sacked by David Parry for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 4Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 11
OWN 4
0
25.9%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Blake Martinez return for no gain to the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:3275% → 87%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
24.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
24.9%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
13.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
18.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
18.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-6
18.5%
Jared Goff sacked by Henry Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 35 CALIFORNIA Penalty, intentional grounding (Jared Goff) to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
17.6%
Cole Leininger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:3086% → 86%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.1%
Remound Wright run for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
13.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 9 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
14.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 18 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
14.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 16 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
17.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
18.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete, broken up by James VaughtersSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
17.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
17.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for no gain to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
17.0%
Cole Leininger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5485% → 95%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
15.1%
Remound Wright run for 8 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
14.9%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
14.3%
Kelsey Young run for 5 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+27
14.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 27 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
13.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
13.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
13.7%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
13.9%
Hogan,K pass incomplete to Taboada,G (Dozier, Cedric), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Dozier, Cedric) 6 yards to the CAL2, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.7%
Remound Wright 2 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
13 plays · 40 yds · 0:005% → 7%
Q3 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.7%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
6.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 14 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
6.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
6.3%
Luke Rubenzer run for 17 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
6.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 5 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-10
7.1%
Rubenzer, Luke rush for 11 yards to the STAN22 (Olugbode,K;Kalambayi,P), PENALTY CAL holding (Adcock, Chris) 10 yards to the STAN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+4
6.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+14
6.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 14 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
7.1%
Luke Rubenzer pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
6.9%
Goff, Jared at QB for California, Lasco, Daniel rush for 5 yards to the STAN20 (Martinez,B), PENALTY CAL holding (Crosthwaite, Al) 10 yards to the STAN35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
6.7%
Luke Rubenzer pass intercepted Jordan Richards return for no gain to the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
3.6%
STANFORD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Richards) to the Stanf 6Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
3.6%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+3
3.6%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+2
3.6%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+27
3.7%
Ben Rhyne punt for 43 yds , Chris Harper returns for 27 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:495% → 5%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
4.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 14 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
4.9%
Lasco, Daniel rush for no gain to the STAN17 (Parry,D), PENALTY STAN substitution infraction 5 yards to the STAN12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+11
4.9%
Luke Rubenzer run for 11 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.6%
Luke Rubenzer run for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
5.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Steven Moore) to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+5
4.5%
Goff, Jared at QB for California, Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Lawler, Kenny, PENALTY STAN offside 5 yards to the STAN11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
4.6%
Rubenzer, Luke at QB for California, Rubenzer, Luke rush for 8 yards to the STAN3 (Olugbode,K), PENALTY CAL holding (Crosthwaite, Al) 10 yards to the STAN21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
4.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
4.7%
James Langford 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 29 yds · 1:175% → 4%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
4.5%
Chris Harper run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
4.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
4.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice Harris, broken up by Alex CarterSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
4.2%
Luke Rubenzer run for 6 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+1
4.6%
Luke Rubenzer run for 1 yd to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+5
4.3%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Lawler, Kenny (Olugbode,K), PENALTY STAN offside 5 yards to the STAN27, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
4.7%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Maurice Harris for 3 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-3
4.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
4.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+5
4.2%
Jared Goff run for 5 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:4898% → 100%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
1.6%
Kevin Hogan run for 7 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+3
1.7%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
1.7%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
1.7%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+12
1.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+38
1.5%
Kevin Hogan run for 24 yds to the CALIFORNIA 27 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
1.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Stefan McClure) to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
1.4%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
1.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
0.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 6 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Cole Leininger punt for 31 yds, downed at the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
0.2%
Ricky Seale run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
0.2%
Ricky Seale run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
0.2%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
0.2%
TEAM punt, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:360% → 1%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
0.2%
Luke Rubenzer run for 6 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
0.2%
Luke Rubenzer pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+17
0.2%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Trevor Davis for 17 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
0.2%
Luke Rubenzer run for 4 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-15
0.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Rigsbee) to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 21
OPP 26
+14
0.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 14 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
1.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
Ricky Seale run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
0.5%
Ricky Seale run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
0.4%
Ricky Seale run for 2 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Ben Rhyne punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Harper at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Chris Harper for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+15
0.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 15 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+46
0.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass intercepted Terrence Alexander return for 46 yds to the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:22
Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q3 9:16
Remound Wright 2 Yd Run (Jordan Williamson Kick)
-9.2
TD · Q2 14:26
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com