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COLO

Colorado 10 at Oregon 44

ORE
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:57 · Darragh O'Neill punt for 39 yds, downed at the Oregn 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+42.8Home team on offense+1.7Score differential+0.0Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:10: Marcus Mariota run for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:06: Royce Freeman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:18: Will Oliver 23 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:06: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:42: Matt Wogan 25 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6COLO made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:00COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:48ORE 4th & 1 at COLO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08COLO 4th & 8 at ORE 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:31ORE 4th & 8 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:57COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:20COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18COLO 4th & 2 at ORE 5, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:42ORE 4th & 8 at COLO 8, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:36COLO 4th & 2 at ORE 40, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:22ORE 4th & 4 at COLO 4, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 16, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:21COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 34, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:48ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 36, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:15COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 17, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:37ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 36, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:33COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 40, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:48ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:10ORE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:06ORE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:06ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:53ORE Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:54COLO Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:15ORE Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:552% → 2%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.0%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
97.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
97.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+2
97.9%
Jordan Gehrke run for 2 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+12
97.6%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 46 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 12 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:0298% → 98%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
97.6%
Devon Allen run for 21 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
97.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
97.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
97.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
97.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+7
97.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 7 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.6%
Royce Freeman run for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:403% → 3%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Tony Jones for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
97.5%
Jordan Gehrke run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
97.4%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Tony Jones for 9 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Donovan LeeSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+18
97.3%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 18 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.1%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
97.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
96.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
96.8%
Christian Powell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-7
96.7%
Jordan Gehrke sacked by Joe Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
96.8%
Will Oliver 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2497% → 96%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.8%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
96.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+13
96.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 13 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.8%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
96.8%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-4
96.6%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 8
50
0
96.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:214% → 4%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
96.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
96.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
96.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
96.2%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 39 yds, downed at the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:4796% → 97%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.4%
Byron Marshall run for 5 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
96.4%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+46
97.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:413% → 3%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
96.8%
Christian Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+2
96.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Tony Jones for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
96.8%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 62 yds, downed at the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 2:5497% → 98%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
97.0%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 15
0
97.0%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+9
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
97.0%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
97.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+9
96.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 9 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+31
97.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 16 yds to the OREGON 42 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
97.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+12
97.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 12 yds to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.3%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:222% → 4%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.1%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+16
98.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 16 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+26
98.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Donovan Lee for 11 yds to the OREGON 41 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
98.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (13 Yards) to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
98.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
98.0%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
97.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
96.3%
Will Oliver 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:5497% → 99%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
97.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+18
97.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 18 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.1%
Jordan Gehrke sacked by Arik Armstead for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+1
98.1%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Christian Powell for 1 yd to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.1%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 47 yds, downed at the Oregn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 11 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
98.6%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+8
98.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 8 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 5 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+29
98.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 29 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
98.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.4%
Matt Wogan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Tony Jones run for no gain to the Colo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:241% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 14Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+10
98.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+7
99.1%
Christian Powell run for 7 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
98.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.8%
Jordan Gehrke run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
98.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+1
99.7%
Jordan Gehrke run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
99.7%
Royce Freeman run for 27 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 9 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+23
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 23 yds to the Colo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
99.7%
Marcus Mariota sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 6Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.8%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 4Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.8%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+10
99.8%
Tony Jones run for 10 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 14 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 3 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 7 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
99.8%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+14
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 14 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+17
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 17 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Kyle Slavin for 11 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+39
99.8%
Christian Powell run for 39 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Christian Powell run for no gain to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.9%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+31
99.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 31 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
99.9%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeromy Irwin) to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 6 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 61 yds, downed at the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
99.9%
Kenny Bassett run for 1 yd to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+10
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Zac Schuller for 10 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.9%
Kenny Bassett run for 6 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+10
99.9%
Kenny Bassett run for 10 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 51 yds, downed at the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-6 Yards) to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+2
99.9%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+2
100.0%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+6
100.0%
Tony Jones run for 6 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+9
100.0%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 47 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 9 yds to the Oregn 26 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-1
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Zac Schuller for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds, downed at the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Tony Jones run for no gain to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+15
100.0%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
100.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 2 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
100.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 41 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for no gain to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 27 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
100.0%
Kenny Bassett run for 8 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Kenny Bassett run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
100.0%
Lane Roseberry run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Jeff Lockie run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+7
100.0%
Lane Roseberry run for 7 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
100.0%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Ayele Forde run for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:06
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
+1.6
FG · Q2 6:18
Will Oliver 23 yd FG GOOD
-1.5
TD · Q2 10:06
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com