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ASU

Arizona State 27 at Oregon State 35

ORST
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:06 · Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior−18.8Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:40: Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 46 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +8.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:19: Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +20.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 12:43: Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +8.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:55: Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 67 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +24.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: Michael Doctor 35 Yd Interception Return (Garrett Owens Kick) — ORST win probability +27.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:35ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:46ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:06ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:09ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:51ASU 4th & 3 at ORST 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:56ORST 4th & 1 at ASU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:57ORST 4th & 6 at ASU 35, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:50ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:23ASU 4th & 3 at ORST 13, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:38ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:19ORST 4th & 1 at ASU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−1.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−7.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:09ASU 4th & 6 at ORST 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:05ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−5.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:43ASU 4th & 10 at ORST 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−15.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:52ASU 4th & 5 at ORST 40, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−1.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:52ORST 4th & 1 at ASU 45, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 9.8 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−12.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−9.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:10ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:17ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:13ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:40ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:04ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:19ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:55ORST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:38ORST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2570% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
30.6%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
30.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 8 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
31.1%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, downed at the OrgSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4931% → 31%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
31.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
31.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
31.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Hunter Jarmon) to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
31.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
31.3%
Keith Kostol punt for 38 yds , Kyle Middlebrooks returns for no gain to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4069% → 68%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
31.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 1 yd to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
31.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
31.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
31.8%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:4932% → 33%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
31.8%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+78
33.3%
Storm Woods run for 78 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:0867% → 64%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.2%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
33.7%
Demario Richard run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
33.7%
Kelly, Taylor pass complete to Smith, Cameron for 10 yards to the ARIZONAST48, PENALTY ARIZONAST pass interference (Foster, D.J.) 15 yards to the ARIZONAST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 25
OWN 23
0
34.1%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 25
OWN 23
+6
34.5%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete to Smith, Cameron, PENALTY OREGONST offside (Delva, Bud) 6 yards to the ARIZONAST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+5
34.9%
Taylor Kelly run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+5
35.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
36.1%
Matt Haack punt for 40 yds, downed at the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:1336% → 37%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
36.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
36.4%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+30
37.4%
Sean Mannion pass intercepted Damarious Randall return for 30 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0564% → 65%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
35.6%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
35.8%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
36.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
35.3%
Zane Gonzalez 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4236% → 40%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
35.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+66
39.8%
Terron Ward run for 66 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5661% → 62%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.7%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
39.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 8 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
39.3%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
39.4%
D.J. Foster run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
40.1%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
50
+2
40.2%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+29
41.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 29 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
41.2%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-1
41.5%
Taylor Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
38.1%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 17 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:1639% → 43%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
38.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 8 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-5
39.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Dustin Stanton) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+35
39.5%
Storm Woods run for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
40.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 3 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
41.4%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+2
41.4%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+4
41.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Ronald Lewis) to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
41.9%
Damien Haskins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Ricky OrtizSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
43.3%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+3
43.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
43.1%
Keith Kostol punt for 18 yds, downed at the ArzSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:1755% → 65%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
44.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 24 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
43.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+7
43.5%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
34.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 46 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3638% → 30%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
37.6%
Terron Ward run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+12
39.3%
Terron Ward run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
39.8%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+8
37.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 5
50
-36
30.1%
Antonio Longino 36 Yd Fumble Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1429% → 29%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
29.2%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
29.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
28.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
28.5%
Keith Kostol punt for 45 yds, downed at the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:2772% → 74%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
28.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
28.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 4 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+13
28.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 13 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.2%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.3%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+10
27.3%
Taylor Kelly run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
26.7%
Demario Richard run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
26.5%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
26.2%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+11
26.5%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 11 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
26.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
25.1%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
25.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to De'Marieya NelsonSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
26.2%
Zane Gonzalez 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4527% → 25%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
26.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-3
26.0%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
25.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1675% → 75%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.2%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
24.8%
Taylor Kelly pass intercepted Tyrequek Zimmerman return for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:2228% → 27%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
27.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
27.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
28.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
28.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for no gain to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
27.1%
Sean Mannion pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:3126% → 26%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
25.8%
Terron Ward run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+38
26.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 38 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
28.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 9 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
28.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
26.9%
Terron Ward run for no gain to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
25.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1075% → 75%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
25.2%
D.J. Foster run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
24.4%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete to Strong, Jaelen, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Murphy, Ryan) 10 yards to the ARIZONAST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
23.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
23.9%
Taylor Kelly run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
23.6%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
23.6%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-1
23.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
24.6%
Taylor Kelly punt for 28 yds, downed at the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:5024% → 46%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
23.7%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+8
24.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Tyler Anderson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
24.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
23.6%
Terron Ward run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
24.8%
Terron Ward run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+8
25.8%
Terron Ward run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+8
24.8%
Terron Ward run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
26.0%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
25.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Hunter Jarmon) to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+16
23.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 16 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
25.5%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
45.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1463% → 61%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.6%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
36.3%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
37.1%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
39.5%
Matt Haack punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1640% → 37%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
39.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 13 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.0%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
41.0%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-8
38.2%
Sean Mannion sacked by Marcus Hardison for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 20
OWN 28
+14
36.6%
Keith Kostol punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Kyle Middlebrooks at the ArzSt 43, OREGON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Terron Ward) to the OrgSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0667% → 74%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
33.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
33.5%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+9
33.5%
D.J. Foster run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
31.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 4 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+10
31.7%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete to Strong, Jaelen, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Nelson, Steven) 10 yards to the OrgSt 12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
31.7%
Taylor Kelly run for no gain to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
31.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
34.0%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
25.7%
Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:4833% → 57%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
33.0%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
32.2%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+67
56.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 67 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:0344% → 45%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 15 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.4%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
54.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 25 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Smith) to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
51.1%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
50.8%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
52.2%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
54.8%
Taylor Kelly punt for 39 yds, downed at the OrgSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26PUNT
12 plays · 54 yds · 6:0058% → 68%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
58.1%
Damien Haskins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+15
58.9%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Bolden, Victor, PENALTY ARIZONAST pass interference (Brown, Kweishi) 15 yards to the OrgSt 18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
60.3%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+14
60.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 14 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
61.2%
Terron Ward run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
62.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
60.2%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Hamlett, Connor, PENALTY ARIZONAST holding (Carrington, Lloyd) 10 yards to the OrgSt 46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
65.7%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
67.0%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-10
66.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Wark) to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+11
61.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 11 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
67.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kyle Middlebrooks at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27INT TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1440% → 8%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
60.0%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
60.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 9 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
62.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 6 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.1%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+35
91.6%
Michael Doctor 35 Yd Interception Return (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:289% → 6%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
91.7%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Lavonte Barnett for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+16
93.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 16 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-13
94.0%
Taylor Kelly sacked by D.J. Alexander for a loss of 13 yards to the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1097% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 13
OPP 23
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-3
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:38
Michael Doctor 35 Yd Interception Return (Garrett Owens Kick)
+27.5
TD · Q4 10:55
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 67 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+24.6
TD · Q3 3:19
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 20 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com