Try the model
CAL

California 30 at USC 38

USC
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2014 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:58 · Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense+12.7Pregame prior+21.5Score differential+7.1Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:33: Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:40: Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +7.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:19: Randall Telfer 15 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick) — USC win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:36: Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +4.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:36: Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 29 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +7.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 8:32CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:34CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:29CAL 4th & 23 at USC 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:29USC 4th & 12 at USC 45, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:56CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 13, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58USC 4th & 6 at CAL 41, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:15CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 31, down 26
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:10USC 4th & 4 at CAL 25, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:39USC 4th & 7 at CAL 7, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25CAL 4th & 1 at USC 22, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:24CAL 4th & 3 at USC 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:55CAL 4th & 3 at USC 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:31USC 4th & 1 at USC 36, up 22
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:50CAL 4th & 2 at USC 46, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:31CAL 4th & 4 at USC 20, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:38USC 4th & 12 at USC 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:07CAL 4th & 1 at USC 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:55USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:27USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:05USC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:33USC Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09CAL Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:40CAL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:19USC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:36CAL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:36CAL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 4:5082% → 82%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
81.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 11 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
81.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 10 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nelson Agholor) to the USC 40Similar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 6
OWN 40
+2
81.3%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
81.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Randall Telfer, broken up by Caleb ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
81.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 7 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
81.1%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 47Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
80.9%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+28
80.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 28 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
80.8%
Javorius Allen run for 13 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
80.8%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
80.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
81.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5219% → 19%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
81.3%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
81.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice Harris, broken up by Gerald BowmanSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+7
81.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
81.5%
Cole Leininger punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:4882% → 84%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
81.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 12 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
81.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 8 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+8
81.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 8 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
83.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 32 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3417% → 17%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
83.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
82.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
82.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
83.2%
Jared Goff punt for 50 yds, downed at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
83.2%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5218% → 18%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
81.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 1 yd to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
81.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
81.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius Powe, broken up by Hayes PullardSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+21
82.0%
Cole Leininger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 24 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:2184% → 86%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+49
84.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 34 yds to the CALIFORNIA 27 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
84.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+10
84.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 10 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
86.2%
Justin Davis 3 Yd Run (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:3114% → 13%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
86.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+21
86.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 6 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Delvon Simmons) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
86.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 18 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
85.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
85.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-15
86.2%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Muhammad, Khalfani for 10 yards to the USC21, PENALTY CALIFORNIA personal foul (Borrayo, Chris) 15 yards to the USC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 23
OPP 46
0
87.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 23
OPP 46
0
87.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5486% → 88%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
86.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
86.5%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+19
86.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 19 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
87.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 9 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+8
88.5%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
88.1%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 12
OWN 45
+42
87.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the CALIFORNIA 23 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Arthur Wainwright) to the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2613% → 12%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
87.5%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-8
87.7%
Jared Goff sacked by Su'a Cravens for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+8
88.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 8 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
88.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the Cal 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4789% → 90%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
89.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 3 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+8
89.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 8 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+3
89.9%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+10
89.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
90.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 14 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
90.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
90.2%
Cody Kessler pass intercepted Hardy Nickerson return for 8 yds to the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
88.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 17 yds to the Cal 17 Daniel Lasco fumbled, forced by Leon McQuay, recovered by USC Kevon Seymour for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:1690% → 94%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
90.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 8 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
94.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:515% → 4%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.0%
Jared Goff run for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
94.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
95.0%
Jared Goff sacked by Leonard Williams and Scott Felix for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+3
95.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
95.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
95.7%
Cole Leininger pass incomplete to Stefan McClureSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:2996% → 98%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
96.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+1
95.9%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+16
95.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 16 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
96.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
96.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 6 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
96.4%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 3 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
96.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 7Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
98.3%
Andre Heidari 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 1:162% → 5%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
98.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 8 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+10
97.9%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete, PENALTY USC holding (Cravens, Su'a) 10 yards to the USC31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
98.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
98.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+7
98.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
96.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
98.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 7 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+7
98.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 7 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 6 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:386% → 4%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
94.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
94.3%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
94.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 2 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+15
94.8%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Claude Pelon) to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
94.7%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 44Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-1
95.0%
Jared Goff sacked by Ajene Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 45Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+9
95.3%
Jared Goff run for 9 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
95.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 15 yds to the USC 21 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 36Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
95.4%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
95.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce Treggs, broken up by Su'a CravensSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
95.4%
Jared Goff sacked by Leonard Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 20
OPP 40
0
96.1%
Jared Goff punt for 32 yds, downed at the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:2097% → 97%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+19
96.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 19 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
96.7%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
96.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
96.7%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:404% → 10%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
96.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
96.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
96.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
50
+6
96.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
96.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
96.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 11 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
96.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
96.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Chris Harper) to the USC 16Similar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+8
96.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 8 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
96.7%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
89.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
21 plays · 78 yds · 6:5694% → 99%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
93.8%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (George Farmer) to the USC 12Similar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+4
93.8%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 16
OWN 16
-8
93.8%
Kessler, Cody pass complete to Farmer, George for 20 yards to the USC36, PENALTY USC pass interference (Farmer, George) 8 yards to the USC8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 24
OWN 8
+15
93.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
94.0%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
94.0%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
94.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
94.7%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
95.0%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
94.9%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
94.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 11 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.2%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
95.4%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
95.5%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
95.6%
Javorius Allen run for 12 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.6%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.8%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
95.7%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (JuJu Smith) to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+15
98.9%
Randall Telfer 15 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:381% → 6%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+17
98.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 17 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
98.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-5
98.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
98.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+20
99.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 20 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
98.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
98.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+3
98.9%
Luke Rubenzer run for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+9
99.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 9 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
98.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
94.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3497% → 98%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
96.7%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
97.0%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 30Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+17
97.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 17 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.4%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 7
50
0
97.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
50
-5
97.5%
Cody Kessler sacked by Devante Downs for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:532% → 11%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
97.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 17 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
97.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+18
97.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 18 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
97.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
97.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
97.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
97.0%
Jared Goff run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
89.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 29 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.3%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-2
97.5%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-19
97.3%
Cody Kessler run for a loss of 19 yards to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:36
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 29 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q3 3:40
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
-7
TD · Q4 6:36
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com