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ORE

Oregon 51 at Utah 27

UTAH
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:46 · Tom Hackett punt for 59 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior−18.3Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:51: Pharaoh Brown 6 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:28: Devontae Booker 27 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick) — UTAH win probability +16.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:48: Westlee Tonga 13 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick) — UTAH win probability +20.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 10:29: Dwayne Stanford 34 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +13.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:51: Marcus Mariota 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:07UTAH 4th & 1 at ORE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:43ORE 4th & 6 at UTAH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48ORE 4th & 19 at UTAH 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:37UTAH 4th & 21 at UTAH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:54ORE 4th & 3 at UTAH 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:46UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:25UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 22, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:06ORE 4th & 10 at UTAH 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UTAH 4th & 4 at ORE 14, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:58UTAH 4th & 5 at ORE 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:35ORE 4th & 6 at UTAH 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57ORE 4th & 14 at UTAH 31, up 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:12ORE 4th & 4 at UTAH 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:19UTAH 4th & 6 at ORE 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:07UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 23, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:25UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:54ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:51ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:28UTAH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:48UTAH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:29ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:51ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:24ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:2023% → 27%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
23.0%
Kendal Thompson run for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
23.3%
Devontae Booker run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
23.6%
Kendal Thompson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
23.9%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
24.3%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Tim Patrick for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
24.7%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Kaelin Clay for 5 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
25.0%
Kendal Thompson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+16
25.4%
Kendal Thompson run for 8 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Erick Dargan) to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
26.9%
Bubba Poole 8 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:1174% → 72%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
26.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 61 yds to the Utah 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
26.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Byron Marshall) to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 25
OPP 29
+6
26.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 6 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 19
OPP 23
-6
26.7%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Lowell Lotulelei for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 25
OPP 29
-7
27.6%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Lowell Lotulelei for a loss of 7 yards to the Utah 36Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 32
OPP 36
-5
28.5%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Utah 41Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 37
OPP 41
0
28.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3229% → 31%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.6%
Kendal Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
28.9%
Devontae Booker run for 8 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
29.0%
Kendal Thompson run for 7 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
29.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Kaelin Clay for 5 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
30.9%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 7 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
31.4%
UTAH Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Utah 32Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 25
OWN 32
+7
30.8%
Devontae Booker run for 7 yds to the Utah 48 Devontae Booker fumbled, recovered by Oregn Reggie DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 32 yds · 4:1770% → 64%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
30.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
30.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+10
30.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 10 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
30.5%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 37Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+2
31.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+3
31.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 3 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+7
32.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Utah 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
31.1%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-7
31.3%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Gionni Paul for a loss of 7 yards to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+1
33.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 1 yd to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 14
OPP 29
-5
35.6%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+18
35.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 18 yds to the Utah 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 1:1136% → 31%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
35.6%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
36.1%
Travis Wilson run for 2 yds to the Utah 21Similar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+100
31.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kaelin Clay for 78 yds to the Oregon 1, Kaelin Clay fumbled, recovered by Erick Dargan, Erick Dargan fumbled, recovered by Joe Walker, returned 100 yards for a TD (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3833% → 32%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
32.8%
Devontae Booker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
32.7%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Jameson FieldSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-10
32.2%
Travis Wilson sacked by DeForest Buckner and Derrick Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the Utah 30Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 21
OWN 30
+36
31.7%
Tom Hackett punt for 47 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 36 yds to the Utah 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:3570% → 74%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
29.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the Utah 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
29.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+19
30.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 19 yds to the Utah 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
30.0%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Utah 2Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
30.2%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 3Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.9%
Dwayne Stanford 3 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5927% → 27%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Tim Patrick for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
27.3%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
26.9%
Travis Wilson run for 6 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kaelin Clay for 5 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-2
28.0%
Devontae Booker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
26.8%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kaelin ClaySimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
26.5%
Tom Hackett punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4974% → 82%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
26.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
25.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+41
25.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 41 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
24.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
24.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 11 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
24.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 11 yds to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.8%
Pharaoh Brown 6 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1019% → 19%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
19.0%
Devontae Booker run for 6 yds to the Utah 21Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
19.3%
Devontae Booker run for 1 yd to the Utah 22Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
19.1%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
18.7%
Dominique Hatfield run for no gain to the Utah 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0983% → 86%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
17.5%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Utah 17Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
17.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-5
17.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Utah 22Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
17.5%
Byron Marshall run for no gain to the Utah 22Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
14.3%
Aidan Schneider 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12END OF HALF
15 plays · 61 yds · 1:5016% → 18%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
16.3%
Travis Wilson run for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
16.8%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
16.4%
Travis Wilson run for 6 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
17.4%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenric YoungSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
16.9%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 5 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
17.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 9 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+10
17.5%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Tim Patrick for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
17.7%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 15 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
17.4%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 5 yds Devontae Booker fumbled, recovered by UtahSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
16.9%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+1
16.3%
Travis Wilson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
18.0%
Andy Phillips 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:3083% → 85%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
16.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
16.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
15.3%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
15.2%
Marcus Mariota run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
15.1%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Nate Orchard for a loss of 18 yards to the Oregn 16 Marcus Mariota fumbled, forced by Nate Orchard, recovered by Utah Brian Blechen, return for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1619% → 20%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
18.8%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kaelin ClaySimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
18.8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 8 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-3
18.2%
Travis Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 11Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
20.3%
Andy Phillips 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:1780% → 86%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.0%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Gionni Paul) to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
18.9%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 45 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+33
20.0%
Royce Freeman run for 33 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
18.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
18.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
17.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
17.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+2
18.0%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the Utah 14Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
13.8%
Aidan Schneider 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1515% → 15%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
14.7%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 4 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
14.9%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
14.7%
Travis Wilson pass intercepted Tyson Coleman return for no gain to the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0389% → 87%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
10.9%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Utah 37Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+6
11.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
11.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
11.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 14
OPP 31
0
12.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2214% → 32%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
14.2%
Devontae Booker run for 6 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+24
14.6%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 24 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
15.3%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
15.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Bubba Poole for 5 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+5
15.2%
Travis Wilson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
32.1%
Devontae Booker 27 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:0376% → 80%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
23.7%
Charles Nelson run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
23.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 10 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
22.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 8 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
21.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
21.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+11
21.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
20.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
20.9%
Marcus Mariota run for 12 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
20.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
20.5%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+4
20.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
20.1%
Aidan Schneider 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:1218% → 42%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
17.9%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+58
17.4%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kaelin Clay for 58 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
22.1%
Devontae Booker run for 6 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
22.1%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
42.2%
Westlee Tonga 13 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1167% → 86%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
33.4%
Royce Freeman run for 15 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
30.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 28 yds Devon Allen fumbled, recovered by Oregn Byron Marshall for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
28.4%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
28.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dwayne Stanford) to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 25
OPP 34
0
26.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 25
OPP 34
+34
13.6%
Dwayne Stanford 34 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5614% → 13%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
14.2%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 28 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
17.6%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
17.9%
Travis Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
16.3%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Devontae Booker for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
13.4%
Andy Phillips 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:2387% → 98%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
12.9%
Marcus Mariota run for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+31
11.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 31 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
11.0%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
10.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 19 yds to the Utah 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
10.4%
Marcus Mariota run for no gain to the Utah 13 Marcus Mariota fumbled, recovered by Oregn Marcus Mariota Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 1 yd to the Utah 13Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
9.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+9
9.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 9 yds to the Utah 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.7%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Utah 2Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.7%
UTAH Penalty, Face Mask (1 yards) (Viliseni Fauonuku) to the Utah 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.3%
Marcus Mariota 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:093% → 3%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.8%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Devontae BookerSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
2.7%
Travis Wilson pass intercepted Troy Hill return for 22 yds to the Utah 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.5%
Royce Freeman 11 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
1.0%
Bubba Poole run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 19Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+7
0.9%
Bubba Poole run for 7 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-3
0.9%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Bubba Poole for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 23Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+51
0.8%
Tom Hackett punt for 45 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 51 yds to the Utah 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
0.3%
Kenny Bassett run for 2 yds to the Utah 15Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+8
0.3%
Kenny Bassett run for 8 yds to the Utah 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:48
Westlee Tonga 13 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)
+20.1
TD · Q3 3:28
Devontae Booker 27 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)
+16.9
TD · Q4 10:29
Dwayne Stanford 34 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com