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Notre Dame 31 at Arizona State 55

ASU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:18 · Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Greg Bryant at the NDame 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Home team on offense+22.3Score differential+10.9Garbage-time factor+10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Blowout margin−0.8Pregame prior+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:20: Everett Golson pass intercepted for a TD Damarious Randall return for 59 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +9.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +9.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:12: Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +9.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:37: Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +30.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 4:29: Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +15.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:49ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19ND 4th & 21 at ASU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:46ASU 4th & 4 at ND 30, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06ND 4th & 6 at ND 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:51ND 4th & 7 at ND 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:35ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28ND 4th & 23 at ND 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−5.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:09ASU 4th & 5 at ND 11, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:31ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 14, up 24
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:49ND 4th & 12 at ND 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:56ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 20, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:12ND 4th & 1 at ASU 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:18ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:55ND 4th & 10 at ASU 14, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:18ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:12ND 4th & 10 at ND 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:52ASU 4th & 2 at ND 2, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:19ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:16ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:20ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:12ASU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11ND Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:12ND Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:12ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:37ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−1.0
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:29ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:41ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:52ASU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:4153% → 53%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
53.1%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 12 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
53.1%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+12
53.1%
Demario Richard run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
53.2%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
53.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
53.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 3 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
53.3%
Matt Haack punt for 49 yds , Greg Bryant returns for 3 yds to the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 6:0147% → 47%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
53.4%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+13
53.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 13 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
53.4%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
53.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 10 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
53.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 13 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
53.0%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
53.0%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
53.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Durham Smythe for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
52.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for no gain to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
52.8%
Everett Golson run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
52.7%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-7
52.5%
Everett Golson sacked by Lloyd Carrington for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 24 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by NDameSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 17
OPP 24
-4
53.3%
Everett Golson sacked by Marcus Hardison for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 21
OPP 28
+46
53.5%
Kyle Brindza 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:2453% → 55%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.9%
D.J. Foster run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.1%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
53.0%
D.J. Foster run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
50
+5
53.8%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
53.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 9 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
53.9%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
54.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
53.9%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
54.6%
Zane Gonzalez 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:1046% → 46%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
53.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
53.8%
Everett Golson sacked by Tashon Smallwood for a loss of 13 yards to the NDame 13 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Tashon Smallwood , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
60.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 13 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Marcus Hardison return for no gain to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4260% → 66%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
60.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 8 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+14
60.2%
Demario Richard run for 14 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.7%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8INT TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:3536% → 27%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.7%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
63.5%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
64.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 13 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
63.6%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
63.5%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
63.3%
Everett Golson run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+59
73.2%
Everett Golson pass intercepted for a TD Damarious Randall return for 59 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5425% → 23%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
75.4%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
75.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Tarean FolstonSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+2
76.5%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
76.8%
Kyle Brindza punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyle Middlebrooks at the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:4579% → 88%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
78.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-2
79.5%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+3
79.7%
Taylor Kelly run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
81.2%
D.J. Foster run for 11 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
87.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 43 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0413% → 12%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.7%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
86.9%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
87.6%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
88.1%
Kyle Brindza punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:5489% → 88%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
89.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+16
89.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 16 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
89.6%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
88.2%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Matt Haack punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3810% → 7%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
89.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 26 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
91.5%
Everett Golson sacked by Laiu Moeakiola for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
92.4%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 14
OWN 41
-9
92.8%
Everett Golson sacked by Antonio Longino for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 23
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Kyle Brindza punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Middlebrooks at the ArzSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 5:0692% → 97%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
92.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 7 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
92.6%
Taylor Kelly run for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+10
92.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 10 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
93.8%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 5
50
0
93.8%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 5
50
+17
94.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 17 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+7
94.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
95.0%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+13
95.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 13 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
95.1%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+6
95.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.8%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
96.8%
Taylor Kelly run for 5 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
96.8%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
96.7%
Zane Gonzalez 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:323% → 14%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
96.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 59 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
95.9%
Everett Golson sacked by Jordan Simone for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+8
96.0%
Everett Golson run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
86.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
91.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17INT
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:4310% → 9%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
89.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 21 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
89.3%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+6
88.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+44
89.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 44 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
90.1%
Cam McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
90.7%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Kweishi Brown return for 6 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1493% → 93%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
92.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+6
93.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
93.2%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
93.1%
Matt Haack punt for 37 yds , Greg Bryant returns for no gain to the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:317% → 6%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.2%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
93.3%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
93.5%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 7
OPP 48
-5
93.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
93.9%
Kyle Brindza punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyle Middlebrooks at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4894% → 94%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
94.0%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
94.0%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Matt Haack punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Bryant at the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:136% → 11%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
94.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Greg Bryant for 4 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+14
94.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 14 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
94.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 32 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.3%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.7%
Cam McDaniel run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.4%
Cam McDaniel run for no gain to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3991% → 92%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.3%
Taylor Kelly run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
91.7%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
91.7%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
92.2%
D.J. Foster run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-7
92.6%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Matthias Farley for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
92.3%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
92.1%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Greg Bryant at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:138% → 7%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+35
91.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
50
+23
91.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 23 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
91.2%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+11
91.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 11 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.6%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
91.6%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
92.6%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 14
-8
92.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:4994% → 96%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
94.0%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
94.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+8
94.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
95.1%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
95.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
95.7%
Demario Richard run for 12 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
95.8%
Taylor Kelly pass intercepted Matthias Farley return for 27 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:085% → 15%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
50
+24
94.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Cam McDaniel for 24 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.1%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
94.5%
Everett Golson run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
94.6%
Cam McDaniel run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.7%
Cam McDaniel run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.7%
Cam McDaniel run for no gain to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.9%
Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3488% → 89%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.8%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
89.1%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
89.2%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.1%
Matt Haack punt for 25 yds, downed at the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:2812% → 42%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+34
88.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 34 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
57.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5173% → 93%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.5%
D.J. Foster run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
74.3%
D.J. Foster run for 15 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
76.7%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+40
76.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 40 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29INT TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:378% → 2%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
92.1%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+23
92.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 23 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+58
97.7%
Everett Golson pass intercepted for a TD Lloyd Carrington return for 58 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · -22 yds · 0:242% → 2%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-22
98.0%
Everett Golson sacked by Viliami Latu for a loss of 22 yards to the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 31TD
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2098% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
98.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 13Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
98.2%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
98.2%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
98.5%
D.J. Foster run for 7 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
Cam McDaniel run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.4%
Malik Zaire run for 6 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:37
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)
-30.6
TD · Q4 4:29
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q2 14:20
Everett Golson pass intercepted for a TD Damarious Randall return for 59 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com