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CAL

California 45 at Oregon State 31

ORST
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:57 · Cole Leininger punt for 53 yds, downed at the OrgSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−5.0Pregame prior+2.9Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:32: Daniel Lasco run for 21 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +11.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:52: Vic Enwere run for 19 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +16.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:04: Chris Brown run for 17 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +22.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:02: Terron Ward run for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +20.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:42: Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 10 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +30.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:04CAL 4th & 10 at ORST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:25CAL 4th & 8 at ORST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:13ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:23CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:20ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:19CAL 4th & 6 at ORST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:44ORST 4th & 8 at CAL 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:42ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14CAL 4th & 8 at ORST 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:45CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−6.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:57CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−5.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:15CAL 4th & 13 at ORST 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−4.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−16.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07ORST 4th & 2 at CAL 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.0%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:40ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:18ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:05CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:32CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:52CAL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:50ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:04ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:02ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:42CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−1.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:39CAL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1MISSED FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 2:5639% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Daniel LascoSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+19
61.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 19 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
61.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 16 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
61.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
61.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 32 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
61.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-5
61.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+5
61.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
60.9%
James Langford 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
61.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
61.0%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
60.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
60.9%
Keith Kostol punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
60.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+23
60.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
60.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Luke Rubenzer run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
60.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
60.7%
Jared Goff punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
60.8%
Storm Woods run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
61.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
60.8%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
60.6%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
60.4%
Keith Kostol punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 37 , Chris Harper returns for no gain to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
60.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
59.5%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
60.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
60.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 21 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
61.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
61.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
60.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:2740% → 44%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
60.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 17 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
59.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
58.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
59.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
58.5%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
58.5%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
58.9%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
58.0%
James Langford 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 65
OPP 0
+15
56.5%
Langford, James kickoff 65 yards to the OSU0, touchback, PENALTY CAL illegal participation 5 yards to the CAL30, NO PLAY, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Smith, Caleb) 15 yards to the CAL45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0158% → 64%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
58.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
59.4%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
59.5%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+49
59.2%
Storm Woods run for 49 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Rahmel Dockery for 3 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1338% → 46%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
62.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
50
+2
60.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+10
60.3%
Goff, Jared pass complete to Lasco, Daniel for 6 yards to the OSU42 (Nelson, Steven), PENALTY OSU holding (Johnson, Jabral) 10 yards to the OSU38, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
60.2%
Luke Rubenzer run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+5
60.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
60.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
59.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
59.4%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+8
60.4%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harper, Chris, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Scott, Larry) 8 yards to the OSU17, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
59.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper, broken up by Ryan Murphy CALIFORNIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
59.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
54.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 14 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:1356% → 61%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
56.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 6 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+17
56.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 17 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
56.9%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Villamin, J., PENALTY CAL pass interference (Allensworth, Da) 15 yards to the CAL49, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
58.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 22 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
59.4%
Terron Ward run for 12 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
59.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
59.5%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
58.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
60.9%
Trevor Romaine 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0644% → 58%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
56.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
54.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
55.2%
Jared Goff run for 4 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+12
55.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 12 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
53.5%
Jared Goff run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
52.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper, broken up by Larry ScottSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+12
53.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
42.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 21 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4247% → 45%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
46.8%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
48.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-3
47.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 6
OWN 32
-2
45.0%
Keith Kostol punt for 50 yds , Chris Harper returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 2:1956% → 63%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
43.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
43.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+7
44.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
42.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 20 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
41.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice Harris, broken up by Steven NelsonSimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+13
42.2%
Tre Watson run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
40.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 8 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+8
40.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
40.2%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
38.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
39.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
38.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
38.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
37.0%
James Langford 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Hunter Jarmon, broken up by Cedric DozierSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
40.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
39.6%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
39.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
38.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 11 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
40.8%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
40.8%
Sean Mannion run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48 Sean Mannion fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Sean Mannion , return for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
41.0%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
39.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chris Harper at the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:2162% → 81%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
37.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 7 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
36.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
37.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
36.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
35.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+10
35.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 10 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
35.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+14
35.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 14 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
18.7%
Vic Enwere run for 19 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5222% → 35%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
22.2%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
22.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+16
23.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
24.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 26 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
24.9%
Mannion, Sean sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CAL22 (Barr, Todd), PENALTY CAL holding (Walker, Cameron) 7 yards to the CAL8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 3
OPP 8
+8
35.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
31.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
31.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 3 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+11
32.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 11 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
31.5%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-6
31.6%
Jared Goff sacked by Cyril Noland-Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 13
OWN 27
-6
33.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (Cole Leininger) to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
33.7%
Cole Leininger punt for 29 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4531% → 56%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
50
+14
30.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 14 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
31.1%
Victor Bolden run for 6 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+13
32.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 13 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
55.6%
Chris Brown run for 17 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0055% → 51%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
45.2%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
45.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Chris Borrayo) to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
45.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Daniel LascoSimilar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
47.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen Anderson, broken up by Ryan MurphySimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
48.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 53 yds, downed at the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5848% → 76%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
48.0%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
48.0%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Bolden, Victor, PENALTY CAL pass interference (White, Darius) 7 yards to the OSU37, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor Hamlett, broken up by Michael LoweSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
48.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron Ward, broken up by Michael BartonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
46.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 15 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
52.9%
Hunter Jarmon run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+19
52.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 19 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
55.5%
Terron Ward run for 12 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
75.9%
Terron Ward run for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2032% → 70%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
67.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 8 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+9
63.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius Powe, broken up by Tyrequek ZimmermanSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
63.9%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
63.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
61.3%
Vic Enwere run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+15
60.6%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harris, Maurice, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Nelson, Steven) 15 yards to the OSU11, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
60.6%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
29.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 10 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
42.5%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+2
41.6%
Sean Mannion pass intercepted Caleb Coleman return for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3371% → 78%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
28.7%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
29.3%
Jared Goff sacked by Dylan Wynn for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
32.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
21.9%
James Langford 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0029% → 32%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
29.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 21 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
33.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-10
34.3%
Sean Mannion sacked by Jonathan Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+14
27.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 14 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+1
31.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Chris Brown for 1 yd to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1487% → 98%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
13.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
12.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+32
10.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 32 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
9.8%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
2.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jared Goff pass to Daniel Lasco for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 61 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Cedric DozierSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 12 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
2.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-2
2.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+12
2.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 12 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
2.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 11 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
3.0%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 20 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:42
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 10 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
-30.9
TD · Q3 1:04
Chris Brown run for 17 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
+22.8
TD · Q4 12:02
Terron Ward run for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
+20.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com