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STAN

Stanford 16 at Oregon 45

ORE
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.8ORE 76.2%Jordan Williamson 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 8:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:20 · Jordan Williamson 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+24.4Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:17: Marcus Mariota run for 22 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +2.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:50: Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +4.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:01: Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +4.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:03: Thomas Tyner run for 21 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +6.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:47: Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:22ORE 4th & 5 at STAN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20STAN 4th & 7 at ORE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35STAN 4th & 12 at ORE 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:33STAN 4th & 2 at ORE 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:15ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:30STAN 4th & 2 at ORE 8, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:52STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 28, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:23STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 28, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:47ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 31, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:34STAN 4th & 2 at ORE 2, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:52ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:17ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:50ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:01STAN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:03ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:47ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:20ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:0277% → 78%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
77.2%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
77.1%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
77.0%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+8
77.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 8 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
77.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
77.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+3
76.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+21
76.8%
Marcus Mariota run for 21 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
76.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
76.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+14
76.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 14 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
76.8%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 6Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2023% → 24%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
77.2%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+16
77.2%
Ty Montgomery run for 16 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
76.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 13 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
76.8%
Kelsey Young run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
76.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+1
77.0%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
76.2%
Jordan Williamson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5876% → 79%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
76.5%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
76.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 14 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
76.7%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 13
50
+6
76.3%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+22
76.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 22 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
78.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 22 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:2822% → 22%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
77.8%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 17Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+18
77.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 18 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
77.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 11 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
77.4%
Kelsey Young run for 10 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
77.8%
Barry Sanders run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
77.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+16
77.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
77.2%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-3
77.2%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
78.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
78.5%
Jordan Williamson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:4078% → 84%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
77.5%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Marshall, Byron, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Alexander, Terrence) 4 yards to the OREGON32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
78.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 15 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
78.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
78.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Thomas TynerSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
78.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
78.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
78.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 7 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
79.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+19
79.0%
Royce Freeman run for 19 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
79.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 11Similar
Q2 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
79.1%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Stanf 1Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0418% → 17%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
82.1%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+42
82.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 42 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
81.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 12 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
81.1%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
81.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
81.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
83.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty Montgomery, broken up by Derrick MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 1:5486% → 87%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
85.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 16 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
85.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+30
85.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 30 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
85.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
86.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 4 yds to the Stanf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
85.8%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Stanford, Dwayne, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Brown, Pharaoh) 15 yards to the STANFORD23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
0
85.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+40
87.3%
Aidan Schneider 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:2313% → 19%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.7%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
86.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 17 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-9
86.4%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Christian French and Rodney Hardrick for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+10
87.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 10 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+11
87.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 11 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.5%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
87.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+20
87.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 20 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
86.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+13
86.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 1 yd to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Tui Talia) to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
86.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 10 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:3385% → 83%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
84.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 22 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
85.3%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Blake Martinez for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+4
83.9%
Marcus Mariota run for 4 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 41 yds, downed at the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
84.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:2817% → 19%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
82.6%
Ty Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
82.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 8 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
82.1%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
81.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 5 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
81.6%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
81.5%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
81.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
81.9%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to Cotton, Eric, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Ragin III, Johnny) 8 yards to the OREGON32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.8%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Erick Dargan return for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5184% → 84%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
84.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 4 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+14
84.2%
Royce Freeman run for 14 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
84.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
84.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
84.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
85.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
84.4%
Marcus Mariota pass intercepted Alex Carter return for no gain to the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:4317% → 17%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Barry Sanders run for no gain to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
83.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 19 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
82.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 15 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
80.9%
Kelsey Young run for 1 yd to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
81.3%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+6
82.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 6 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
81.7%
Wright, Remound rush for 3 yards to the OREGON13, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Shuler, Graham) 10 yards to the OREGON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+4
82.6%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+6
83.7%
Remound Wright run for 6 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+8
84.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 8 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
82.7%
Jordan Williamson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2186% → 95%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
85.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 15 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
87.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jake Fisher) to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+30
87.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 30 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
88.4%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+12
88.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 12 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
94.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 21 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:337% → 8%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
93.0%
Kelsey Young run for 15 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
92.7%
Ty Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+18
92.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 18 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 6 yds to the Stanf 30 Kevin Hogan fumbled, forced by Erick Dargan, recovered by Oregn Tony Washington , return for 21 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:2695% → 99%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
95.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 16 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
95.2%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Harris, Ronnie) 7 yards to the STANFORD7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
98.6%
Kevin Hogan run for 6 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
98.7%
Ben Rhyne punt for 30 yds, downed at the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:2599% → 100%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.2%
Charles Nelson run for 11 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.2%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
99.2%
Freeman, Royce rush for 7 yards to the STANFORD29, PENALTY OREGON holding (Fisher, Jake) 10 yards to the STANFORD46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+17
99.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 17 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
99.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 25 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Kelsey Young for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
Young, Kelsey rush for 3 yards to the STANFORD38, PENALTY STANFORD illegal shift (Cajuste, Devon) 5 yards to the STANFORD30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon Cajuste, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
99.9%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Tony Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Ben Rhyne punt for 40 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Darren Carrington, broken up by Jordan RichardsSimilar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Kenny Bassett run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dontonio Jordan at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Evan Crower pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+27
99.9%
Evan Crower pass complete to Austin Hooper for 27 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
99.9%
Evan Crower pass complete to Michael Rector for 32 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Jordan PrattSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+6
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+3
100.0%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 12
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:03
Thomas Tyner run for 21 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 1:01
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q2 11:50
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com