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ORE

Oregon 59 at California 41

CAL
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2014 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:54 · James Langford 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior−18.6Home team on offense−18.0Score differential−9.8Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:31: Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +6.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 24 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +5.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:25: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 54 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +7.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:24: Royce Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +6.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:54: Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +7.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 2:39CAL 4th & 10 at ORE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:04ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:31ORE 4th & 3 at CAL 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:56CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:52CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:31CAL 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:11CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:54CAL 4th & 16 at ORE 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:30ORE 4th & 1 at CAL 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−1.8
    89% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:01ORE 4th & 12 at CAL 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:05CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 22, down 17
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:48ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:04CAL 4th & 4 at ORE 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−1.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43CAL 4th & 12 at ORE 28, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:01ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 49, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:38CAL 4th & 10 at ORE 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:55CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:49ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:10CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:29ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:23ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:15CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:31CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:41ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:25ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 7:24ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 3:54CAL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:58ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3914% → 17%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
14.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+16
14.5%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Lawler, Kenny, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Daniels, Reggie) 16 yards to the CALIFORNIA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
14.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
14.9%
Luke Rubenzer run for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+7
15.2%
Luke Rubenzer run for 7 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
15.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
15.5%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+23
15.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 23 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
16.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny Lawler, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
17.0%
Luke Rubenzer run for 12 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:5983% → 84%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
16.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 9 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+25
16.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 25 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
16.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
17.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
17.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 6 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
16.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 22 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3217% → 20%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 17 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
17.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+14
17.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for 14 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
18.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 15 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
18.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
20.2%
Vic Enwere run for 19 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:2881% → 82%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
19.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 13 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
19.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-10
19.4%
Freeman, Royce rush for no gain to the CALIFORNIA26, PENALTY OREGON holding (Hunt, Cameron) 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+6
20.3%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+18
20.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 18 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
20.3%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
20.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
18.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:4319% → 20%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
19.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+27
19.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 27 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for no gain to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
20.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen Anderson, broken up by Tony WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
20.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
20.2%
Cole Leininger punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2880% → 79%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
20.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 13 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
20.1%
Charles Nelson run for 7 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
20.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
20.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
21.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -22 yds · 0:2523% → 22%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
22.6%
Lasco, Daniel rush for 2 yards to the OREGON38, PENALTY CALIFORNIA illegal block (Anderson, Stephen) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 25
OWN 45
-7
22.2%
Jared Goff sacked by Christian French for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 38 Jared Goff fumbled, forced by Christian French, recovered by Oregn Alex Balducci , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:4880% → 80%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
20.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 13 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
19.9%
Byron Marshall run for 4 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
20.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 8 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
20.1%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
20.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
21.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
20.5%
Aidan Schneider 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2022% → 23%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
21.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
22.8%
Luke Rubenzer pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
22.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
22.6%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:2679% → 83%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
20.6%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Stanford, Dwayne, PENALTY CALIFORNIA pass interference (Walker, Cameron) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
20.3%
Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+24
20.5%
Byron Marshall run for 24 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
20.5%
Byron Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
17.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · -9 yds · 1:2517% → 13%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
17.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 4 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
17.4%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
17.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-15
16.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (NA) to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 19
OWN 20
+58
12.6%
Cole Leininger punt for 38 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 58 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1913% → 19%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
12.8%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
13.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 11 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
13.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
13.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 7 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
13.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Matt Rockett for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+1
14.0%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+27
13.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 27 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
14.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice Harris, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
19.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1183% → 83%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+31
17.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 5 Royce Freeman fumbled, forced by Todd Barr, recovered by Cal Michael Lowe , return for 31 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2019% → 26%
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
19.3%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 6Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
18.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:1977% → 79%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
22.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
22.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+22
22.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 22 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
21.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
21.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+18
21.9%
Byron Marshall run for 18 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
20.6%
Marcus Mariota pass intercepted, touchback. Stefan McClure return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3625% → 24%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
25.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
24.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius Powe, broken up by DeForest BucknerSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
23.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 32 yds, downed at the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:2177% → 84%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
22.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 27 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
21.0%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
15.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 24 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18END OF HALF
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:3017% → 18%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
16.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Daniel LascoSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
16.3%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harris, Maurice, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Hill, Troy) 12 yards to the CALIFORNIA31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
16.7%
Jared Goff run for 4 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
16.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
15.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
50
0
17.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
50
+10
17.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 10 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
17.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2782% → 90%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
17.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 32 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
16.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+6
17.1%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-15
17.2%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Marshall, Byron for 11 yards to the CALIFORNIA28, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Allen, Devon) 15 yards to the OREGON46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+54
10.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 54 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:1811% → 11%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
11.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen Anderson, broken up by Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
10.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+11
10.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 11 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+52
10.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 52 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
12.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Steven Moore) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-9
12.2%
Jared Goff sacked by Christian French for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 24
OPP 38
+8
11.5%
Jared Goff run for 8 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 16
OPP 30
0
11.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
11.0%
James Langford 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:2591% → 98%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
9.2%
Charles Nelson run for 15 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
8.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall, broken up by Darius WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
8.7%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+26
8.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the CALIFORNIA 44 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Darius White) to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
8.2%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
8.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 9 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
8.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
8.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Cal 9Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+7
8.8%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:304% → 12%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
4.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+7
3.8%
Luke Rubenzer run for 7 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
3.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 30 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
4.2%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Maurice Harris for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-5
4.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Jack Austin) to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
4.3%
Luke Rubenzer run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+15
4.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 15 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
4.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+10
4.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
4.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris Harper, broken up by Ifo Ekpre-OlomuSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:3593% → 94%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
7.1%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+25
6.9%
Royce Freeman run for 25 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
6.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
6.3%
Kenny Bassett run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
5.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 5 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-11
5.8%
Marshall, Byron rush for 6 yards to the CALIFORNIA32, PENALTY OREGON holding (Fisher, Jake) 11 yards to the CALIFORNIA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
5.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:519% → 9%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
9.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
9.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 9 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
9.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+58
8.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 48 yds, downed at the OREGON 30 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0795% → 95%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
5.1%
Marcus Mariota run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 18 Marcus Mariota fumbled, recovered by Oregn Marcus MariotaSimilar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-9
5.1%
Mariota, Marcus rush for 5 yards to the OREGON23, PENALTY OREGON holding (Fisher, Jake) 9 yards to the OREGON9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+17
4.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 17 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
4.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
5.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:529% → 6%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
8.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
8.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Drake Whitehurst, broken up by Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
7.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
7.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+6
6.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
7.2%
Luke Rubenzer run for 11 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
6.9%
Luke Rubenzer sacked by Danny Mattingly for a loss of 10 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+8
6.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 8 yds Daniel Lasco fumbled, recovered by CalSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
6.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 12
OPP 28
0
6.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3296% → 97%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
3.7%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
3.6%
Kenny Bassett run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
3.6%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
3.3%
Byron Marshall run for 8 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
3.2%
Byron Marshall run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
3.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 31 yds , Bryce Treggs returns for 1 yd to the Cal 21 Bryce Treggs fumbled, recovered by Oregn Tony WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
0.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 21 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:062% → 2%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.5%
Jared Goff run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
1.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 15 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
1.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
1.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+14
1.1%
Vic Enwere run for 14 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
1.2%
Vic Enwere run for 18 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
1.2%
Watson, Tre rush for loss of 4 yards to the OREGON20, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding (Enwere, Vic) 10 yards to the OREGON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+7
1.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Vic Enwere for 7 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+3
1.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 3 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
1.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+11
0.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 11 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.9%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harper, Chris, PENALTY OREGON substitution infraction 3 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
0.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Steven Moore) to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
0.9%
Rubenzer, Luke pass incomplete to Powe, Darius, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Ekpre-Olomu, Ifo) 5 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Goff failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:4499% → 99%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
1.4%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
1.2%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+13
1.1%
Charles Nelson run for 13 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.8%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
0.8%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-3
0.8%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:54
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q3 13:25
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 54 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 3:31
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com