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WASH

Washington 20 at Oregon 45

ORE
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.1ORE 88.6%Cameron Van Winkle 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q1 6:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:21 · Cameron Van Winkle 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+36.9Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Royce Freeman 3 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +1.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:17: Royce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:32: Byron Marshall 23 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:23: Dwayne Stanford 16 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:45: Deontae Cooper 3 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +1.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20WASH 4th & 2 at ORE 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21WASH 4th & 8 at ORE 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54ORE 4th & 3 at WASH 3, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07WASH 4th & 7 at ORE 42, down 8
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:23ORE 4th & 1 at WASH 2, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:33WASH 4th & 16 at WASH 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:36ORE 4th & 16 at WASH 16, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:16WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:03WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:49ORE 4th & 1 at WASH 49, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:45WASH 4th & 1 at ORE 3, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:59ORE 4th & 7 at WASH 22, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:19WASH 4th & 6 at ORE 36, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:22WASH 4th & 7 at ORE 7, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:20ORE 4th & 9 at WASH 9, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:28ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54ORE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:17ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:32ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:23ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:45WASH Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:56ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:22WASH Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1091% → 91%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
90.9%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
90.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall, broken up by John TimuSimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-2
90.8%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Danny Shelton and Hau'oli Kikaha for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+4
90.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 36 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1210% → 11%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
90.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-3
90.4%
Dwayne Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+10
90.3%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 10 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
90.1%
John Ross run for 12 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
89.9%
Dwayne Washington run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+7
89.9%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 7 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+6
89.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to John Ross for 6 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
89.5%
Cameron Van Winkle 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 1:3790% → 90%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+28
89.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 28 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.5%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
89.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 9 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
89.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
89.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
89.6%
Royce Freeman 37 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:5411% → 11%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
89.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Lavon Coleman for 31 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
89.1%
Lavon Coleman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+13
88.9%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 13 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
88.8%
Lavon Coleman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-1
88.7%
Lavon Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
88.7%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
88.6%
Cameron Van Winkle 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
20 plays · 81 yds · 6:1589% → 89%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.7%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
88.6%
Byron Marshall run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+9
88.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 9 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.6%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
88.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
88.5%
Byron Marshall run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
50
-15
88.7%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Cameron Hunt) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
88.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
88.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 11 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
88.5%
Byron Marshall run for 14 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
88.6%
Marshall, Byron rush for 13 yards to the WASHINGTON15, PENALTY OREGON holding (Grasu, Hroniss) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-1
88.1%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 39Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 21
OPP 39
+13
87.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 13 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+18
87.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 18 yds to the Wash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
88.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Wash 7Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
87.9%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the Wash 7Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
87.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 4 yds to the Wash 3Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.8%
Royce Freeman 3 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3811% → 11%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to John RossSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.1%
Cyler Miles pass complete to DiAndre Campbell for 5 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
89.1%
Cyler Miles run for 10 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
88.6%
Miles, Cyler pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Ekpre-Olomu, Ifo) 15 yards to the OREGON45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
88.2%
Lavon Coleman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
88.1%
Cyler Miles pass complete to John Ross for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
88.1%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to DiAndre Campbell, broken up by Ifo Ekpre-OlomuSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
88.7%
Cyler Miles punt for 41 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 3:4588% → 92%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
88.3%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+1
88.2%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+4
87.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
88.2%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+66
88.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 66 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-15
88.9%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pharaoh Brown) to the Wash 26Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
88.8%
Kenny Bassett run for 6 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
88.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 1 yd to the Wash 10Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-2
88.9%
Marcus Mariota run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 12Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+10
88.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 10 yds to the Wash 2Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
87.9%
Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.1%
Royce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:279% → 9%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.8%
Jaydon Mickens run for 3 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
90.8%
Lavon Coleman run for 1 yd to the Wash 29Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.0%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to Kendyl TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-10
91.2%
Durkee, Korey punt 46 yards to the OREGON25, Nelson, Charles return 2 yards to the OREGON27, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding 10 yards to the WASHINGTON19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT
1 play · -10 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 6:33
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+1
91.3%
Korey Durkee punt for 48 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:5291% → 91%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
91.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
91.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
92.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+16
92.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 16 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
92.5%
Kenny Bassett run for 12 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
92.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 23 yds to the Wash 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
92.5%
Kenny Bassett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 3Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
92.3%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Brown, Pharaoh for 3 yards to the WASHINGTON0, PENALTY OREGON holding (Fisher, Jake) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-3
92.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 16Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
91.1%
Matt Wogan 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:449% → 9%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
91.2%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the Wash 15Similar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+7
91.3%
Cyler Miles pass complete to John Ross for 7 yds to the Wash 22Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
91.3%
Cyler Miles pass intercepted Erick Dargan return for 15 yds to the Wash 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1092% → 97%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
92.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.1%
Byron Marshall 23 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:014% → 4%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
95.9%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Lavon Coleman for 3 yds to the Wash 14Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
96.0%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 3 yds to the Wash 17Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+15
96.0%
Miles, Cyler pass incomplete to Mickens, Jaydon (Dargan, Erick), PENALTY OREGON personal foul (Armstead, Arik) 15 yards to the WASHINGTON32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
95.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Deontae Cooper for 8 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
95.7%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to DiAndre CampbellSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
95.8%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to Kasen Williams, broken up by Tyree RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
95.9%
Korey Durkee punt for 50 yds, downed at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
97.2%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:464% → 3%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.2%
Cyler Miles run for no gain to the Wash 28Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
96.4%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Lavon Coleman for no gain to the Wash 28Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-4
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Korey Durkee punt for 34 yds, downed at the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:3397% → 100%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
97.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
97.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 2
50
+1
97.4%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+11
97.3%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
97.5%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
97.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+12
97.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 12 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Wash 16Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
99.5%
Dwayne Stanford 16 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:271% → 2%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.5%
Lavon Coleman run for 2 yds to the Wash 23Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
99.5%
Jaydon Mickens run for 9 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Miles, Cyler pass complete to Mickens, Jaydon for 15 yards to the WASHINGTON47, PENALTY WASHINGTON illegal touching (Mickens, Jaydon) 0 yards to the WASHINGTON32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to John RossSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+11
99.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dante Pettis for 11 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.5%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
99.5%
Lavon Coleman run for 2 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
99.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Deontae Cooper for 9 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
99.6%
John Ross run for 32 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.5%
Cyler Miles run for 5 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
99.5%
Deontae Cooper run for 4 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
99.4%
Lavon Coleman run for no gain to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Deontae Cooper 3 Yd pass from Cyler Miles (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:3098% → 99%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
98.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
98.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 7 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
98.3%
Royce Freeman run for 20 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
98.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 13 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
98.4%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Hau'oli Kikaha for a loss of 10 yards to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
98.7%
Kenny Bassett run for no gain to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+13
98.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 13 yds to the Wash 22Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 7
OPP 22
-4
98.6%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Hau'oli Kikaha for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:552% → 1%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Cyler Miles run for no gain to the Wash 26Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Cyler Miles pass incomplete to Dante PettisSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+12
98.6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Dante Pettis for 12 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Lavon Coleman run for no gain to the Wash 38Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
98.7%
Cyler Miles run for 15 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.7%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 8 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-3
98.6%
Marvin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+6
98.8%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 6 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
98.8%
Cyler Miles sacked by Christian French for a loss of 11 yards to the Wash 47 Cyler Miles fumbled, forced by Christian French, recovered by Oregn Tui Talia , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:5499% → 100%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 5 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
99.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+6
99.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 6 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Wash 36Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
99.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne Stanford, broken up by Cory LittletonSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+25
99.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 25 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
99.1%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Wash 4Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+1
99.1%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Wash 3Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Royce Freeman 3 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:280% → 1%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Lavon Coleman run for 7 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
Lavon Coleman run for 1 yd to the Wash 33Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Lavon Coleman run for 6 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Deontae Cooper for 6 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Kendyl TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Troy Williams run for 15 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Deontae Cooper run for 4 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete, broken up by T.J. DanielSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Kendyl Taylor, broken up by Ifo Ekpre-OlomuSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+18
99.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Deontae Cooper for 18 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
99.9%
Troy Williams sacked by Christian French for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
Troy Williams run for 8 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
99.9%
Deontae Cooper run for 5 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Brayden Lenius, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
Troy Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Kendyl Taylor, broken up by Danny MattinglySimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Troy Williams 7 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:5399% → 100%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.4%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+13
99.4%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Wash 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Wash 2Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
99.5%
Freeman, Royce rush for 2 yards to the WASHINGTON0, PENALTY OREGON holding (Brenner, Doug) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
99.5%
Kenny Bassett run for no gain to the Wash 12Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
99.5%
Kenny Bassett run for 3 yds to the Wash 9Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
99.8%
Matt Wogan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
Deontae Cooper run for 8 yds to the Wash 33Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 5 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 4 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
99.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Deontae Cooper for 4 yds to the Wash 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:32
Byron Marshall 23 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)
+4.8
TD · Q2 8:17
Royce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick)
+4.2
TD · Q3 10:23
Dwayne Stanford 16 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com