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COLO

Colorado 28 at USC 56

USC
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:11 · Darragh O'Neill punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+24.2Home team on offense+26.6Score differential+23.3Blowout margin+11.4Garbage-time factor+6.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:12: Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 18 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:09: Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:16: Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:06: Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +2.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:32: Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 4:53COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:57COLO 4th & 1 at USC 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:49COLO 4th & 1 at USC 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:05COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 48, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:56COLO 4th & 3 at USC 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:40USC 4th & 10 at USC 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:11COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:58COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:06USC 4th & 20 at USC 25, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:30COLO 4th & 3 at USC 13, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:53COLO 4th & 3 at USC 48, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:34USC 4th & 9 at USC 49, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:31COLO 4th & 4 at USC 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:56COLO 4th & 9 at USC 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:44USC 4th & 8 at USC 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:47USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:09USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:16USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:06COLO Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:32USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:35USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:31COLO Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:30USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:15COLO Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:11USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:19COLO Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 3:5892% → 92%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
92.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
92.1%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Max Tuerk) to the USC 14Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+10
92.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Holding (NA) to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
92.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
91.9%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+10
91.8%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Holding (NA) to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.8%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
91.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+17
91.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 17 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
91.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 12 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
91.5%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
91.5%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
91.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2INT
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:158% → 9%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
91.6%
Tony Jones run for 18 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
91.5%
Tony Jones run for 12 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:3292% → 93%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
91.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Jahleel PinnerSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
91.7%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
91.6%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
91.6%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+7
91.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 7 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 18 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:068% → 8%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
92.1%
Tony Jones run for 4 yds to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+15
92.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 15 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
92.1%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Jeromy Irwin) to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-5
92.1%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Stephane Nembot) to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+1
92.1%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Colo 24Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+3
92.1%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+6
92.1%
Christian Powell run for 6 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
92.1%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:3492% → 94%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
92.4%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
92.3%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
92.2%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+16
92.1%
COLORADO Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Marques Mosley) to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+45
92.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 45 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
92.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:186% → 6%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.3%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Kevon Seymour return for 23 yds to the Colo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0595% → 96%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
94.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 12 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
96.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:103% → 5%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.6%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.6%
Michael Adkins II run for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
96.5%
Michael Adkins II run for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
96.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-4
96.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
97.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 9 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
96.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 3
OPP 30
-2
96.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
97.0%
Tony Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
97.1%
Tony Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
97.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 6 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
97.2%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
97.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Sean IrwinSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+8
97.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+4
97.0%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.1%
Michael Adkins II run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.7%
Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:1896% → 96%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the USC 30Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
95.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 9 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
96.1%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 39Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+21
96.2%
Justin Davis run for 21 yds to the Colo 40 Justin Davis fumbled, recovered by Colo Chidobe AwuzieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:265% → 5%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
94.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 5 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
94.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+14
95.0%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 34 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 14 yds to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:1996% → 98%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.3%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+40
96.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 40 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
96.6%
Cody Kessler sacked by Juda Parker for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+24
96.6%
Javorius Allen run for 24 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:592% → 1%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
98.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
98.2%
Tony Jones run for 5 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
98.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 11 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.1%
Tony Jones run for 1 yd to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
99.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
98.4%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
98.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.7%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+2
98.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 2 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.1%
Michael Adkins II run for 5 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+11
99.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 11 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
99.2%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Claude Pelon for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+22
99.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 7 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to D.D. GoodsonSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-8
99.2%
Sefo Liufau sacked by J.R. Tavai for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:403% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
Tony Jones run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
98.8%
Tony Jones run for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 3 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:2799% → 100%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.3%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+75
99.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 75 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Kyle SlavinSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
99.5%
Sefo Liufau sacked by J.R. Tavai and Leonard Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for no gain to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 15
OWN 24
+15
99.5%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 36 yds , Darreus Rogers returns for 15 yds to the USC 39 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.5%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-11
99.6%
Cody Kessler sacked by Justin Solis for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
99.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 5 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
99.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 4 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+6
99.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven MitchellSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+47
99.7%
Justin Davis run for 47 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.7%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+24
99.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell for 24 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Michael Adkins II run for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
99.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 7 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
99.7%
Michael Adkins II run for 11 yds to the USC 38 Michael Adkins II fumbled, recovered by Colo Michael Adkins II for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.7%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
99.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.8%
Tony Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 18 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+39
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 39 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 20 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 5
50
+2
99.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
99.9%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 42Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shay Fields at the Colo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 4:020% → 0%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Donovan Lee for 3 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+14
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke run for 14 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Donovan LeeSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Shay Fields for 18 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 8 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Malcolm Creer for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+15
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Shay Fields for 15 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke run for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
James Toland run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
James Toland run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Robby KolanzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Malcolm Creer run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Malcolm Creer for 5 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+20
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 20 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
Malcolm Creer run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 42Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Malcolm Creer run for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-4
99.9%
Jordan Gehrke sacked by Greg Townsend Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Donovan LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Max Browne run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
James Toland run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-4
100.0%
James Toland run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 42Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+10
100.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 41 yds , Shay Fields returns for 10 yds to the Colo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Malcolm Creer run for 3 yds to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:06
Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q1 1:16
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q1 2:09
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com