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STAN

Stanford 10 at Arizona State 26

ASU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:39 · Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty Montgomery
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Home team on offense+26.6Pregame prior−0.2Garbage-time factor+7.0Score differential+10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:28: D.J. Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +6.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:58: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +8.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:31: Jordan Williamson 40 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +4.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:37: Zane Gonzalez 25 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +6.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:23: Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +15.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10STAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:45ASU 4th & 14 at STAN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30ASU 4th & 1 at STAN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:04ASU 4th & 12 at STAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:23STAN 4th & 18 at STAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:54ASU 4th & 13 at ASU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:59STAN 4th & 15 at ASU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:58ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:33STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:31STAN 4th & 2 at ASU 22, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%−1.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:37ASU 4th & 5 at STAN 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−7.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:38STAN 4th & 9 at ASU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:50ASU 4th & 25 at STAN 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45ASU 4th & 10 at STAN 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:36STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07ASU 4th & 7 at STAN 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:29ASU 4th & 3 at STAN 14, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−3.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:15STAN 4th & 4 at ASU 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:39STAN 4th & 10 at ASU 15, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:28ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:58ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:23STAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1535% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.1%
Deantre Lewis run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
35.3%
Deantre Lewis run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
35.5%
Deantre Lewis run for 20 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
35.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 13 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
36.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
36.2%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-6
36.4%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Blake Martinez for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 39 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Blake Martinez, recovered by ArzSt Mike Bercovici , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
36.3%
Mike Bercovici punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0164% → 63%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
36.5%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
36.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
37.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 24 yds · 5:4037% → 39%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
37.2%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
37.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Kelly) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
37.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
37.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 9 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
38.1%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-3
38.2%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Kevin Anderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+8
38.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+4
38.3%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
39.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 5 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
39.4%
Deantre Lewis run for 3 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 21
-4
39.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Kody Kohl) to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-6
39.5%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
38.6%
Zane Gonzalez 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4162% → 60%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
38.7%
STANFORD Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (NA) to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+9
38.9%
Barry Sanders run for 9 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-12
38.9%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Damarious Randall for a loss of 12 yards to the Stanf 24 Kevin Hogan fumbled, recovered by Stanf Kevin Hogan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 18
OWN 24
+8
40.1%
Ben Rhyne punt for 52 yds , Kyle Middlebrooks returns for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2940% → 40%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
39.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
40.7%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-1
40.2%
Deantre Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
39.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Deantre LewisSimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
39.5%
Matt Haack punt for 36 yds, downed at the Stanf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:3361% → 59%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
39.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Eric Cotton for 14 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
38.9%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
38.9%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
39.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
38.5%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-5
40.0%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+5
40.3%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
40.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
41.1%
Ben Rhyne punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:5342% → 53%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.6%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
41.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 9 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
41.7%
D.J. Foster run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
42.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 13 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
44.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 20 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
45.1%
Frederick Gammage sacked by Harrison Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
44.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+15
43.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 15 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
45.7%
Deantre Lewis run for 9 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+10
46.0%
Deantre Lewis run for 10 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.1%
Deantre Lewis run for 1 yd to the Stanf 1Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.5%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.2%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2948% → 45%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
52.0%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+10
53.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
52.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Greg Taboada for 30 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
50.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
50.4%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-10
50.8%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Lloyd Carrington for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
55.4%
Ben Rhyne punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0155% → 53%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
54.3%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
53.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-14
53.2%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for a loss of 14 yards to the Stanf 12 Ty Montgomery fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Damarious RandallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0058% → 68%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
58.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.5%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
60.0%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 3Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2533% → 29%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
67.5%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
68.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 2 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+3
71.5%
Ben Rhyne punt for 47 yds , Kyle Middlebrooks returns for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:2328% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
71.6%
Ricky Seale run for 3 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
72.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 6 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
72.5%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
73.1%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+22
72.7%
Remound Wright run for 22 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
71.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 6 yds Austin Hooper fumbled, forced by Antonio Longino, recovered by Stanf Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
71.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+13
72.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 13 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
72.0%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+9
72.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 9 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
73.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
69.1%
Jordan Williamson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5472% → 83%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.2%
D.J. Foster run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
74.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Holding (Alex Carter) to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
74.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 7 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
74.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 6 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
75.3%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+14
75.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 14 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
76.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 12 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
76.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
76.4%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+2
76.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 2 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
83.0%
Zane Gonzalez 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5920% → 17%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
80.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
82.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Greg Taboada for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
50
0
80.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Patrick SkovSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
50
+1
81.6%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
82.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
83.5%
Ben Rhyne punt for 45 yds, downed at the ArzSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:4888% → 94%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
87.9%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+9
88.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 9 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
88.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 4 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+26
89.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 26 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
90.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 8 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
90.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Frederick GammageSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+15
90.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 15 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
91.3%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+14
91.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 14 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
91.5%
Deantre Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 13
OPP 18
-7
91.7%
Mike Bercovici sacked by James Vaughters for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 20
OPP 25
-5
91.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Deantre Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 25
OPP 30
+47
93.7%
Zane Gonzalez 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:277% → 23%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
93.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 9 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
93.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+31
93.6%
Kevin Hogan run for 31 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
92.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 22 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.9%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3884% → 86%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
83.9%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
84.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
83.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
85.6%
D.J. Foster run for 14 yds to the Stanf 39 D.J. Foster fumbled, forced by Blake Martinez, recovered by ArzSt De'Marieya Nelson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.0%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
86.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
87.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
86.0%
Mike Bercovici punt for 38 yds, downed at the Stanf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0912% → 10%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
87.6%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 3Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
88.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jeff Trojan for 3 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
89.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+30
90.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds, downed at the Stanf 41 STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Formation (NA) to the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2990% → 97%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
89.6%
D.J. Foster pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+2
90.0%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+27
90.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 27 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
91.5%
Deantre Lewis run for 1 yd to the Stanf 9Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
92.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 4:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
96.5%
Zane Gonzalez 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2997% → 98%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
97.1%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
97.1%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
97.9%
Zane Gonzalez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 60 yds · 2:503% → 3%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 3 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
97.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 13 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+24
97.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 24 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
96.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+6
97.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jordan Pratt for 6 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+6
97.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Jeff Trojan for 6 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
96.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
97.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 10
OPP 15
0
97.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q2 1:58
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q3 5:37
Zane Gonzalez 25 yd FG GOOD
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com