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Oregon 42 at UCLA 30

UCLA
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:27 · Matt Mengel punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense−39.4Score differential−36.9Garbage-time factor−13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Pregame prior−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:24: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 21 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +8.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:01: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan MISSED) — ORE win probability +11.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:03: Brett Hundley run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +9.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:06: Marcus Mariota run for 3 yards, fumbled, fumble recovered by Mariota at the UCLA 20, returned 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +11.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:59: Royce Freeman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +9.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:03ORE 4th & 21 at UCLA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04UCLA 4th & 2 at ORE 2, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−6.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:12UCLA 4th & 3 at ORE 23, down 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:44UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 37, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:27UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:52UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:14UCLA 4th & 5 at ORE 36, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:58ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 23, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:40UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:47ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:24ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03UCLA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:06ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:59ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:19ORE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:46UCLA Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:47UCLA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:5056% → 55%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
44.5%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+12
44.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 12 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
44.6%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
44.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+20
44.7%
Royce Freeman run for 20 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
44.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 11 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
44.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+5
44.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-15
44.8%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Brown, Pharaoh for 16 yards to the UCLA11, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Marshall, Byron) 15 yards to the UCLA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 21
OPP 42
0
45.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon Lowe, broken up by Anthony JeffersonSimilar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 21
OPP 42
0
45.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:3445% → 46%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
45.3%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+2
45.3%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+7
45.2%
Brett Hundley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
45.6%
Perkins, Paul rush for 2 yards to the UCLA20, PENALTY UCLA face mask (Benenoch, Caleb) 9 yards to the UCLA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+13
45.6%
Brett Hundley run for 13 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
45.8%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 6 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
46.0%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Erick DarganSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
45.9%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
45.8%
Brett Hundley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
45.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5054% → 53%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
46.0%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
46.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 12 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
45.5%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
45.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall, broken up by Myles JackSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+1
46.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Hroniss Grasu for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
46.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCLA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2947% → 47%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
46.5%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
46.5%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
46.4%
Brett Hundley run for 9 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.0%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-7
47.1%
Brett Hundley sacked by Tony Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 13 Brett Hundley fumbled, forced by Tony Washington, recovered by Oregn Tui Talia , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
41.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 13 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Taylor Alie GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6FG
18 plays · 83 yds · 7:3042% → 46%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
41.9%
Paul Perkins run for 14 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
42.1%
Paul Perkins run for 14 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
43.3%
Brett Hundley run for 9 yds to the OREGON 48 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (Eldridge Massington) to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 11
OWN 42
+6
42.3%
Jordon James run for 6 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-1
43.0%
Brett Hundley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
41.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 7 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
42.4%
Devin Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
41.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Nate Starks for 7 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+9
42.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 9 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
42.8%
Devin Fuller pass complete to Brett Hundley for 9 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
42.8%
Myles Jack run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
42.8%
Myles Jack run for 7 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
42.7%
Myles Jack run for 4 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
42.7%
Brett Hundley run for 2 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
42.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 3 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 2 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
45.5%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:2955% → 67%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
44.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
43.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 4 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+10
43.7%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete, PENALTY UCLA holding 10 yards to the OREGON46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
42.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+19
42.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Eddie Vanderdoes) to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
41.9%
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
41.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 8 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
41.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
41.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
33.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 21 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0435% → 34%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.2%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.0%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
34.9%
Brett Hundley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
35.5%
Paul Perkins run for 12 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
35.5%
Nate Starks run for 19 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
36.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 7 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
36.2%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-1
35.1%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
34.3%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:0467% → 81%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
32.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+23
32.7%
Royce Freeman run for 23 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
31.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
31.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
31.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 4 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
30.9%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Pharaoh Brown) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
30.8%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
30.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 9 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+5
30.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
18.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 2:4423% → 32%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
22.7%
Paul Perkins run for 15 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
22.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+25
21.6%
Brett Hundley run for 25 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
23.4%
Brett Hundley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+8
22.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+12
22.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 12 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
23.3%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
22.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+11
21.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 11 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
22.5%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin Fuller, broken up by Reggie DanielsSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
22.5%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
31.7%
Brett Hundley run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0430% → 29%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
30.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 13Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+5
30.0%
Brett Hundley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+10
28.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 10 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
30.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 9 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-1
30.7%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
29.5%
Brett Hundley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
28.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3171% → 87%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
28.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 9 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
27.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
28.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
26.3%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
26.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 9 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
25.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
25.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+7
24.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 7 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
24.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
12.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yards, fumbled, fumble recovered by Mariota at the UCLA 20, returned 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3416% → 16%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.7%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+31
15.9%
Brett Hundley pass intercepted Ifo Ekpre-Olomu return for 31 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:1788% → 97%
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
12.0%
Byron Marshall run for 6 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:252% → 2%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
2.3%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for no gain to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
2.1%
Brett Hundley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
2.1%
Brett Hundley run for no gain to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
1.8%
Matt Mengel punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:5998% → 99%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
2.0%
Marcus Mariota run for 9 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
1.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
1.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for no gain to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Takkarist McKinley) to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
1.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 30 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
1.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 9 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
1.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
1.3%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
1.3%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+30
1.2%
Paul Perkins run for 30 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.2%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
1.1%
Brett Hundley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
0.8%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+1
0.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 38 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 31 Charles Nelson fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
1.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 29 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
0.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+31
0.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 31 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
0.7%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 4:230% → 2%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
0.3%
Paul Perkins run for 14 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
0.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for 2 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+19
0.3%
Paul Perkins run for 19 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
0.3%
Paul Perkins run for 17 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
0.3%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+2
0.2%
Brett Hundley run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+11
0.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 11 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
0.2%
Brett Hundley run for 6 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
0.2%
Brett Hundley sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+15
0.1%
Paul Perkins run for 15 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.1%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 5 yds for a TD, (Two pt rush, Myles Jack GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3898% → 99%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
1.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
1.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
1.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
1.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:291% → 1%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.6%
Mossi Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+3
0.6%
Brett Hundley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+13
0.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 13 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
0.5%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+27
0.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 27 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.6%
Brett Hundley run for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
0.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
1.0%
Nate Starks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brett Hundley failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:251% → 5%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
1.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
0.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
1.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for 12 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
4.6%
Jordan Payton 25 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0396% → 97%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
3.7%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+11
2.7%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:01
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan MISSED)
-11.6
TD · Q3 9:06
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yards, fumbled, fumble recovered by Mariota at the UCLA 20, returned 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 7:59
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com