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USC

USC 28 at Arizona 26

ARIZ
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:27 · Kris Albarado punt for 30 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 193Home team on offense−31.8Pregame prior−0.7Garbage-time factor−13.3Score differential−8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:17: Nelson Agholor 21 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +11.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:05: Jared Baker 6 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick) — ARIZ win probability +13.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:35: Javorius Allen 1 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +9.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:19: Jared Baker 41 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron Kick) — ARIZ win probability +10.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:07: Jared Baker 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ARIZ win probability +29.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 11USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:53ARIZ 4th & 6 at USC 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25USC 4th & 10 at USC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21ARIZ 4th & 3 at USC 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42ARIZ 4th & 7 at USC 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:30USC 4th & 6 at ARIZ 42, up 1
    Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:13ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:12ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 40, down 8
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ARIZ 4th & 8 at USC 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−7.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:36ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 44, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:22USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−3.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:48ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 22, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:14USC 4th & 12 at USC 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:19ARIZ 4th & 3 at USC 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:42USC 4th & 8 at USC 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:02ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:27USC 4th & 10 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:12ARIZ 4th & 7 at USC 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−40.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−53.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:03USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:30USC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:17USC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:05ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:35USC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:19ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:07ARIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.0%−6.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 2:5038% → 40%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
38.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
38.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 8 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
38.6%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+27
38.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 27 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
39.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 43Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+8
39.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kevon Seymour) to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
39.5%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
39.7%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
39.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
39.5%
Casey Skowron 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0861% → 60%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
39.4%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
39.5%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
39.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+43
40.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 48 yds , DaVonte' Neal returns for 43 yds to the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5741% → 42%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
40.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
40.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 14 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
41.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-10
41.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Fabbians Ebbele) to the USC 29Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 17
OPP 29
0
41.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+14
41.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 14 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
41.9%
Casey Skowron 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0058% → 61%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
41.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 18 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
41.2%
Javorius Allen run for 10 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
41.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-1
41.4%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
39.2%
Javorius Allen 34 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 5:1640% → 43%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.9%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.9%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
39.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 10 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
40.5%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
41.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 6 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
41.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
50
+15
41.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 15 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
42.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+9
42.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
42.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the USC 26Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+9
42.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
42.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
42.1%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 12Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
42.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
43.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
43.4%
Casey Skowron 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:5858% → 58%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
42.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 14 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
41.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 24 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
40.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
40.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-1
40.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USC Justin DavisSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
41.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 32 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1343% → 44%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
43.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
43.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 6 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+6
42.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 6 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
43.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 9 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
44.8%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
43.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
43.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 6 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-2
44.8%
Anu Solomon sacked by Leonard Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+26
43.7%
Drew Riggleman punt for 50 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 26 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:3158% → 66%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
41.7%
Javorius Allen run for 14 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
41.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
34.1%
Javorius Allen 48 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:0736% → 34%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
35.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
35.2%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 6 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+11
34.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 11 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
35.7%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 5 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
36.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
35.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
34.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 53 yds, downed at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2565% → 67%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
34.8%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+6
34.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 6 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+4
34.5%
Cody Kessler run for 4 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
33.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
32.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for no gain to the USC 27Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-2
33.1%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:4134% → 37%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
33.6%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
34.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
35.9%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
37.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 13 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
37.2%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (8 Yards) to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
37.2%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for no gain to the USC 9 Terris Jones-Grigsby fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1567% → 67%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+25
33.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 25 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
31.4%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 35Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
31.5%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-10
32.3%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 19
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Cody Kessler pass intercepted Jonathan McKnight return for no gain to the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 26 yds · 1:2135% → 32%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
35.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
35.2%
Jared Baker run for 7 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
37.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 7 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+4
35.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 4 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
35.1%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
34.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-3
33.0%
Anu Solomon sacked by Claude Pelon for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
32.1%
Casey Skowron 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Claude PelonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2571% → 86%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.4%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
29.0%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
29.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 16 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
27.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
26.8%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
26.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 1 yd to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
27.0%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
25.9%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
26.0%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
26.5%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
25.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+21
14.5%
Nelson Agholor 21 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:2219% → 19%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
18.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
18.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 7 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
19.5%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
19.5%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
18.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
18.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1385% → 85%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 2 yds Justin Davis fumbled, recovered by ArizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:4420% → 34%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
20.2%
Tyrell Johnson run for 9 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
20.1%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
20.0%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
33.9%
Jared Baker 6 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2373% → 90%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
26.7%
Javorius Allen run for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
50
0
24.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
50
+8
24.3%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
23.9%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+10
25.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 10 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
21.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 8 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+5
21.4%
Cody Kessler run for 5 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
21.2%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
21.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+9
20.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 9 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
19.6%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.3%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.9%
Javorius Allen 1 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2414% → 13%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
13.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-1
13.5%
Anu Solomon sacked by Leonard Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
13.1%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
13.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 38 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for no gain to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1591% → 91%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
8.7%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
8.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Jahleel PinnerSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-3
8.6%
Cody Kessler sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
9.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 47 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 2:3513% → 23%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
12.5%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
12.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 7 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
12.7%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
11.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 4 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
12.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 6 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
12.4%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
13.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
12.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
11.8%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+41
22.6%
Jared Baker 41 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2282% → 86%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
17.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+32
17.8%
Javorius Allen run for 32 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
15.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 37Similar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
16.5%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+5
15.5%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
12.7%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
14.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:2518% → 14%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
17.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
17.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
16.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
14.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:2588% → 93%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
11.7%
JuJu Smith run for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
10.8%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
9.7%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
9.1%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
8.4%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
50
+2
7.3%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
7.1%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+1
6.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-5
7.5%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 10
50
0
7.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 30 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 2:087% → 38%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
6.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 5 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
7.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
7.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.9%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
6.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds Cayleb Jones fumbled, recovered by ArizSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
5.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
5.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 10 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
6.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 7 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
6.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+7
6.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 7 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
8.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
7.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 16 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
7.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
7.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Jared Baker 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26MISSED FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:3828% → 22%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
27.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+18
31.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 18 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
32.4%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
34.3%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
31.3%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
21.8%
Casey Skowron 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:07
Jared Baker 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+29.7
TD · Q3 6:05
Jared Baker 6 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)
+13.9
TD · Q3 9:17
Nelson Agholor 21 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com