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ORST

Oregon State 36 at Colorado 31

COLO
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Darragh O'Neill punt for 52 yds , Terron Ward returns for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior−19.8Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:53: Michael Adkins II run for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +8.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:43: Tony Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +15.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:20: Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 24 yds for a TD COLORADO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor Romaine KICK) — ORST win probability +16.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:09: Terron Ward run for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Mannion failed ) — ORST win probability +14.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 17 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +24.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:46ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:25COLO 4th & 1 at ORST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:17ORST 4th & 2 at COLO 21, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:54ORST 4th & 5 at COLO 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 10 at COLO 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:15COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:47ORST 4th & 19 at COLO 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:47COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−5.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:52COLO 4th & 2 at ORST 27, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%−2.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−9.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:19ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 14, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−2.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:55COLO 4th & 6 at ORST 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−5.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−7.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:05ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:44ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:59COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:53COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43COLO Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:20ORST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:00COLO Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
30.2%
Tony Jones run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
30.2%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 52 yds , Terron Ward returns for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
30.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 19 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
30.7%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
30.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
30.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
30.7%
Keith Kostol punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
31.4%
Michael Adkins II run for 9 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
31.6%
Michael Adkins II run for 6 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
31.5%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Alex Kelley) to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+15
31.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 15 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
31.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for no gain to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
31.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Kyle Slavin for 9 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
31.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
31.5%
George Frazier run for no gain to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:3468% → 70%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
32.3%
Terron Ward run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+33
32.1%
Terron Ward run for 33 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
31.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 20 yds to the Colo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.2%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+25
30.6%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted D.J. Alexander return for 25 yds to the Colo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2970% → 73%
Q1 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
30.0%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the Colo 4Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.4%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4529% → 33%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
28.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+27
28.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 27 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
29.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
29.5%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Kyle Slavin) to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+3
29.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+31
32.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 31 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:3969% → 70%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
30.7%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+10
30.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 10 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
30.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 9 yds to the COLORADO 44 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ken Crawley) to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
29.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for no gain to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
30.0%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
30.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 4 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
29.9%
Trevor Romaine 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2429% → 39%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
29.4%
Tony Jones run for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
29.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 5 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
29.9%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Lavonte Barnett for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+17
29.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 17 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
30.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+6
30.6%
Tony Jones run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.6%
Michael Adkins II run for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+13
30.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 13 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
31.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
31.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 9 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
30.5%
Michael Adkins II run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
39.1%
Michael Adkins II run for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
35.6%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
35.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
36.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
35.3%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
34.9%
Terron Ward run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+1
35.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 1 yd to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
36.1%
Keith Kostol punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
35.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-3
36.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 20
-4
34.5%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 55 yds , Steven Nelson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:1366% → 70%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
33.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 21 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
35.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
35.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+34
36.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 34 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
32.9%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
32.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 3 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
34.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard Mullaney, broken up by Ahkello WitherspoonSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
30.5%
Trevor Romaine 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:1134% → 52%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.5%
Michael Adkins II run for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
35.2%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
34.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
35.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Michael Adkins IISimilar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
35.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
36.1%
Liufau, Sefo pass complete to Spruce, Nelson for 8 yards to the OSU41, out-of-bounds, PENALTY OSU holding 10 yards to the OSU39, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
36.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
36.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 12 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
37.7%
Liufau, Sefo rush for no gain to the OSU27 (Barnett, L.), PENALTY COLO holding (Munyer, Daniel) 10 yards to the OSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+9
35.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 9 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+19
35.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 19 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
36.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (Bud Delva) to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.6%
Tony Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.7%
Sean Mannion sacked by Derek McCartney for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.6%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+32
47.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 32 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
43.2%
Storm Woods run for 7 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
41.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-5
43.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (Sean Mannion) to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-2
43.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
46.4%
Keith Kostol punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
48.7%
Michael Adkins II run for 5 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
49.0%
Michael Adkins II run for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
49.7%
Michael Adkins II run for 7 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-6
50.7%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Luke Hollingsworth for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+2
47.1%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 44 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 2 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0951% → 59%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
49.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+9
47.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
48.3%
Terron Ward run for 27 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
45.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 17 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
44.1%
Sean Mannion sacked by Timothy Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 19
OPP 29
0
45.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 19
OPP 29
0
48.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb Smith OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 19
OPP 29
+47
41.5%
Trevor Romaine 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
44.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
42.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 3 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-16
43.0%
Liufau, Sefo pass complete to McCulloch,Tyler for 11 yards to the COLO47 (Zimmerman, Ty), PENALTY COLO personal foul (Irwin, Jeromy) 16 yards to the COLO20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 26
OWN 20
+3
41.4%
Tony Jones run for 3 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 23
OWN 23
+5
41.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 5 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
39.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+5
39.0%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 52 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 4:2761% → 82%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
39.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 4 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+14
39.3%
Storm Woods run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
38.3%
Storm Woods run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
36.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 3
50
+16
35.2%
Mannion, Sean pass intercepted by Crawley, Ken at the COLO5, Crawley, Ken return to the COLO32, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Crawley, Ken) 16 yards to the COLO34, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY, QB hurry by Olugbode,Kennet. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
34.4%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
34.5%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
34.4%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
18.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 24 yds for a TD COLORADO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor Romaine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:2822% → 32%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.1%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
22.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 7 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
22.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
23.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
25.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
25.7%
Michael Adkins II run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
27.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
27.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Larry ScottSimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
24.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
32.2%
Will Oliver 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 5:3974% → 95%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
25.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+10
25.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 10 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
24.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 7 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+7
22.5%
Terron Ward run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
21.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
21.0%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+9
20.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 9 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
20.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 11 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
19.5%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+16
19.5%
Victor Bolden run for 16 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.5%
Terron Ward run for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Mannion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:098% → 36%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
8.6%
Michael Adkins II run for 5 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to D.D. GoodsonSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
8.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+21
9.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 21 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
9.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 4 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
12.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Michael Adkins IISimilar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+15
11.0%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to McCulloch,Tyler, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Zimmerman, Ty) 15 yards to the OSU17, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
35.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 17 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:3985% → 86%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
15.5%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
14.9%
Victor Bolden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 13 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+1
16.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
13.8%
Keith Kostol punt for 30 yds, downed at the OrgSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1327% → 19%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
27.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
25.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
21.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Steven NelsonSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
18.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Tyler McCulloch, broken up by Jabral JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0093% → 91%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-2
7.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-3
8.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:00
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 17 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)
+24.8
TD · Q4 14:20
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 24 yds for a TD COLORADO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor Romaine KICK)
-16
TD · Q2 0:43
Tony Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)
+15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com