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ASU

Arizona State 38 at USC 34

USC
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:26 · Cody Kessler punt for 30 yds , Damarious Randall returns for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 2 Damarious Randall fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Damarious Randall
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 190Pregame prior+3.2Home team on offense+21.0Garbage-time factor+13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Score differential+2.3Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:23: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 77 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Mike Bercovici pass to Kody Kohl GOOD) — ASU win probability +13.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:42: Cody Kessler run for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +16.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:53: Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Garoutte KICK) — ASU win probability +19.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ASU hurrying with no timeouts left).
  4. TD · Q4 3:02: Javorius Allen run for 53 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +14.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 46 yds for a TD — ASU win probability +74.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:42ASU 4th & 6 at USC 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−<0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35USC 4th & 5 at ASU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:46ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:13ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:05USC 4th & 1 at USC 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:05USC 4th & 21 at USC 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:12ASU 4th & 2 at USC 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:05USC 4th & 9 at USC 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:35USC 4th & 2 at ASU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:49USC 4th & 1 at ASU 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:03ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:14USC 4th & 7 at ASU 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:40USC 4th & 8 at ASU 39, up 2
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:23ASU 4th & 2 at USC 2, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−11.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:45USC 4th & 14 at ASU 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−4.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−13.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:21ASU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:05ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:26USC 4th & 13 at ASU 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:08ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 48, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:23USC 4th & 12 at ASU 46, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 11:41ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:23ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:49USC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:42USC Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:53ASU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:02USC Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:43ASU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0822% → 23%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
77.8%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
77.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 11 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
77.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-2
77.3%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+5
77.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Leonard Williams) to the USC 33Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
77.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
77.2%
Mike Bercovici punt for 32 yds, downed at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:0077% → 77%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
77.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Lloyd Carrington) to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
77.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+6
77.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 6 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
77.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+10
77.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 10 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.2%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 48Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
77.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
77.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
77.0%
Cody Kessler punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4423% → 21%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
76.8%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
76.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
77.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+53
78.9%
Matt Haack punt for 38 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 53 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2721% → 21%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.7%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
78.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
78.7%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Su'a Cravens for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
79.2%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, downed at the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 3:0079% → 79%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
79.0%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
79.3%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 43Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+3
79.3%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
79.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-9
79.6%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chad Wheeler) to the USC 46Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
79.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-8
79.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Laiu Moeakiola for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 16
OWN 40
-5
78.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Peter McBride) to the USC 35Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
78.7%
Kris Albarado punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4821% → 22%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.2%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
79.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 11 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
79.1%
Jaelen Strong run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+4
79.4%
Mike Bercovici run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+9
79.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
78.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
78.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-1
77.7%
Deantre Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 48Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
78.2%
Matt Haack punt for 43 yds, downed at the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5579% → 78%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
78.5%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 5Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
78.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+13
78.2%
Cody Kessler run for 13 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
78.7%
Cody Kessler sacked by Dj Calhoun for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+8
78.6%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
78.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
77.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:1921% → 30%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
78.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
79.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 12 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
78.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 16 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.7%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the USC 44Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+27
77.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 27 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
77.0%
Deantre Lewis run for 9 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+4
77.0%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Adoree' Jackson) to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Garoutte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9DOWNS
15 plays · 51 yds · 3:5474% → 73%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
74.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
73.9%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
73.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 4 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
74.3%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+11
73.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 11 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
74.8%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
75.3%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
75.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 15 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
74.7%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
73.9%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
72.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
59.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 77 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Mike Bercovici pass to Kody Kohl GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:2159% → 70%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
59.4%
Justin Davis run for 12 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
60.4%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
60.6%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
50
0
59.8%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 5
50
+6
58.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (6 Yards) to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.3%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
59.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 3 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+36
59.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 36 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
61.4%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
59.5%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.3%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:3334% → 32%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
66.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 14 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
66.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
67.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+3
67.6%
Matt Haack punt for 51 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 3 yds to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 1:4067% → 74%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
67.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 21 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
68.5%
Cody Kessler run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
69.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 10 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
70.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 12 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
70.2%
Justin Davis run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
71.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 3 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
68.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
66.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
73.9%
Andre Heidari 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
75.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 3:1573% → 73%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.3%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
71.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 10 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
74.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
74.6%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-6
73.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the USC 48Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+11
72.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 11 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
74.2%
Cody Kessler sacked by Marcus Hardison for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+4
72.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
74.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven MitchellSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
73.3%
Cody Kessler punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FG
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:1728% → 39%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
72.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+29
72.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 29 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
69.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+20
69.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 20 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
67.6%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
67.1%
D.J. Foster run for 10 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
67.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete, broken up by TEAM for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Antwaun Woods) to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
66.8%
Deantre Lewis run for 1 yd to the USC 8Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
68.1%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.7%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the USC 2Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
60.8%
Alex Garoutte 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:2866% → 70%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
66.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 36Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+7
64.7%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+24
66.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 24 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
70.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 5 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
70.0%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
69.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell for 7 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+1
69.8%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+2
67.0%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-4
69.0%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
63.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
70.4%
Andre Heidari 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:1331% → 29%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
69.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
70.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Kelly) to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+14
73.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 14 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
69.8%
Deantre Lewis run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 4
50
0
68.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 4
50
0
68.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 4
50
0
71.3%
Matt Haack punt for 29 yds, downed at the USC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:2870% → 90%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
70.0%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
70.2%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+15
69.5%
Javorius Allen run for 15 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
72.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 37 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
75.5%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
75.5%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+9
73.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 9 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.9%
Cody Kessler run for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3112% → 11%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 15 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
86.8%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
87.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 2 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
88.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+2
89.2%
Matt Haack punt for 38 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21FUMBLE
14 plays · 40 yds · 5:2989% → 92%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
89.1%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
89.3%
Nelson Agholor run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
89.8%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
89.8%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
90.8%
Javorius Allen run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
91.0%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
91.2%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
91.2%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
91.8%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-6
92.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 35
-5
91.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 13
OPP 40
-7
91.9%
Cody Kessler punt for 30 yds , Damarious Randall returns for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 2 Damarious Randall fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Damarious RandallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 98 yds · 2:276% → 26%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
93.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 8 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+10
93.6%
USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
93.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 28 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
92.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
93.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+14
93.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 14 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
93.6%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Scott Felix for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+6
94.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+17
94.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 17 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
74.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Garoutte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4481% → 95%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
80.8%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 47Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+53
94.8%
Javorius Allen run for 53 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
81.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Cameron Smith for 73 yds for a TD, (Alex Garoutte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:1283% → 91%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.7%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-1
86.4%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-2
88.4%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
91.1%
Cody Kessler punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:1716% → 95%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+26
85.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 26 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
79.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
4.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 46 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 46 yds for a TD
-74.6
TD · Q4 3:53
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Garoutte KICK)
-19.8
TD · Q4 13:42
Cody Kessler run for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com