Try the model
CAL

California 45 at Arizona 49

ARIZ
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:36 · Cole Leininger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+17.5Home team on offense−22.3Score differential−11.3Garbage-time factor−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:55: Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 26 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +15.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:56: Khalfani Muhammad run for 50 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +18.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:09: Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 16 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +18.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:44: Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 15 yds for a TD, (Anu Solomon failed ) — ARIZ win probability +34.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 47 yds for a TD — ARIZ win probability +61.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 11 of 12CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:17ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:46ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:58CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 3 at ARIZ 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:39ARIZ 4th & 8 at CAL 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:55ARIZ 4th & 3 at CAL 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:28ARIZ 4th & 8 at CAL 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:43ARIZ 4th & 8 at CAL 26, down 22
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−14.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:47CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 43, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:28CAL 4th & 12 at ARIZ 27, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:28ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−3.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:08CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−6.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:18ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 13:36CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 14, up 18
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:46ARIZ 4th & 10 at CAL 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−12.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:52CAL 4th & 7 at ARIZ 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−4.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−24.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:52ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%−6.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:17CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:53CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:55CAL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:43CAL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:02ARIZ Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:36ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:56CAL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:09ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:21CAL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:30ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4316% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
83.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 24 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
83.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+44
83.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 44 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
83.4%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
83.4%
Nick Wilson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
83.4%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
83.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
83.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nick WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
83.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
81.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 80 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
81.5%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-3
81.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 16 , Chris Harper returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
80.7%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Treggs, Bryce, PENALTY CAL holding 8 yards to the CAL8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 18
OWN 8
0
80.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for no gain to the Cal 8 Luke Rubenzer fumbled, forced by Scooby Wright III, recovered by Ariz Jeff WorthySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4881% → 80%
Q1 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
80.9%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' Neal, broken up by Griffin PiattSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 0
OPP 9
+27
80.2%
Casey Skowron 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
79.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+11
79.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 11 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
79.8%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
79.8%
Luke Rubenzer run for 5 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
79.8%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
79.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+9
79.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 9 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 4
OWN 37
-5
79.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+54
79.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the ARIZONA 24 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
77.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
77.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 5 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+16
77.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 16 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.5%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
77.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
77.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 5 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
77.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
74.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
74.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 9 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
74.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
74.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
74.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
74.4%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
74.4%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-9
74.5%
Jared Goff sacked by Derrick Turituri for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
75.0%
Cole Leininger punt for 24 yds, downed at the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
71.7%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
71.4%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted Avery Sebastian return for no gain to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:3830% → 31%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.6%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
69.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+8
68.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 8 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
68.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
68.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-1
68.5%
Luke Rubenzer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+2
69.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 2 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1868% → 68%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
68.3%
Anu Solomon run for 7 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+12
68.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
68.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 3 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
69.2%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
69.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 2 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
68.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
68.1%
Casey Skowron 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4433% → 49%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+41
66.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 41 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
66.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+26
50.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 26 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 3:2757% → 58%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.5%
Anu Solomon run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
57.2%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
57.3%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
57.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
50
+19
58.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 19 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
59.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
59.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 7 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
59.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+12
59.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 12 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
59.7%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
56.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+3
55.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
57.8%
Casey Skowron 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4546% → 60%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
54.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+38
54.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 38 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
40.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 30 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16INT
13 plays · 66 yds · 2:4843% → 46%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
43.7%
Nick Wilson run for 10 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
44.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+28
44.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 28 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
47.4%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
47.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
46.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for no gain to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+9
45.7%
Anu Solomon run for 9 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
47.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+7
47.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 7 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+7
45.6%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted Griffin Piatt return for 7 yds to the Cal 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 65%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
39.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 15
-5
35.4%
N/A run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
34.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for no gain to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+24
34.3%
Drew Riggleman punt for 51 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 24 yds to the Cal 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
26.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
26.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
27.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-5
28.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
28.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 1:5431% → 40%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
30.6%
Anu Solomon run for 7 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+10
31.0%
Anu Solomon run for 10 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
31.2%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
31.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+12
31.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
32.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 12 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
33.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
35.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
35.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+41
40.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 41 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:3465% → 75%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
35.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
35.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 17 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
33.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+27
33.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 27 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius AllensworthSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
32.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
33.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+45
25.1%
James Langford 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
27.4%
Anu Solomon run for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
28.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
28.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-3
27.5%
Anu Solomon sacked by Puka Lopa for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+7
27.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 39 yds , Chris Harper returns for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
21.6%
Jared Goff sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
22.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor Davis, broken up by Tra'Mayne BondurantSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+5
22.3%
Lasco, Daniel rush for 7 yards to the CAL29 (Jones, Tel.), PENALTY ARIZ substitution infraction 5 yards to the CAL27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-5
22.5%
Jared Goff sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 20
OWN 22
-3
22.7%
Cole Leininger punt for 51 yds , DaVonte' Neal returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
22.8%
Anu Solomon sacked by Brennan Scarlett for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+15
22.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 15 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+6
22.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 6 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
23.3%
Anu Solomon sacked by Mustafa Jalil for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
22.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+12
22.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 12 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
23.2%
Drew Riggleman punt for 47 yds , Trevor Davis returns for no gain to the Cal 7 Trevor Davis fumbled, recovered by CalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
34.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 16
-2
33.4%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
34.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
34.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:0418% → 22%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
18.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
19.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
20.7%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
20.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 12 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
20.7%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
16.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate Phillips, broken up by Griffin PiattSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
15.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
22.2%
Casey Skowron 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
11.6%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Tra'Mayne Bondurant return for 24 yds to the Cal 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3223% → 37%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
22.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 8 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
37.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 9 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4071% → 93%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
27.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
28.6%
Luke Rubenzer run for 3 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
27.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 13 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
26.0%
Luke Rubenzer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 8
50
+50
7.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 50 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4715% → 33%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 13 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
15.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
16.3%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 6 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
16.6%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
12.6%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
13.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 8 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
13.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+16
14.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 16 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
33.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 16 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 31TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4882% → 98%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
17.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
15.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
15.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
14.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 17 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
13.7%
Goff, Jared sacked for no gain to the ARIZ28 (Team), PENALTY CAL intentional grounding 7 yards to the ARIZ35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+19
14.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 19 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
13.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 10 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 32TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:516% → 22%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.9%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
6.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 10 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
6.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 23 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
7.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 5 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
7.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 6 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
7.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 16 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
22.2%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 6 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 33TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:4318% → 56%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
17.6%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
18.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 8 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
21.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
20.9%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Hill, A., PENALTY CAL pass interference 14 yards to the CAL15, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
55.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 15 yds for a TD, (Anu Solomon failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 34MISSED FG
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:5274% → 85%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
25.7%
Jared Goff run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+15
24.8%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Harper, Chris, PENALTY ARIZ pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZ32, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
20.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+5
19.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-1
20.8%
Luke Rubenzer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
15.1%
James Langford 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 35TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 0:5228% → 96%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
28.2%
Solomon, A. pass complete to Jones, C. for 41 yards to the CAL29, PENALTY ARIZ pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZ15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+9
27.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 9 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 16
OWN 24
0
27.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+9
25.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 9 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+20
25.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 20 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
34.1%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
95.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 47 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 47 yds for a TD
+61.5
TD · Q4 2:44
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 15 yds for a TD, (Anu Solomon failed )
+34.9
TD · Q4 10:56
Khalfani Muhammad run for 50 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com