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ASU

Arizona State 38 at Colorado 24

COLO
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:39: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 15 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +8.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:46: Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 5 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +6.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:08: Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +7.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:05: Taylor Kelly run for 50 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:38: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 31 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +5.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:05COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04ASU 4th & 1 at COLO 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:58ASU 4th & 23 at COLO 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:18COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:12ASU 4th & 7 at COLO 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:30COLO 4th & 2 at ASU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:45ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:06ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:10COLO 4th & 8 at ASU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:48COLO 4th & 1 at ASU 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:30ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:36COLO 4th & 12 at ASU 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:53ASU 4th & 9 at COLO 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:46ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:14ASU 4th & 18 at ASU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:15COLO 4th & 6 at ASU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:58ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:39ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:06COLO Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:39COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:46ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:08ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:05ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:38COLO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4116% → 17%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.0%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
16.4%
Christian Powell run for 5 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
16.7%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Marcus Hardison for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
16.7%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:5383% → 83%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
16.9%
Taylor Kelly run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
50
+9
16.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to De'Marieya Nelson for 9 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
17.0%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
17.3%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
17.7%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
17.6%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete to Nelson, De'Marieya, PENALTY ARIZONAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the COLORADO44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+21
17.8%
D.J. Foster run for 21 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
17.8%
Taylor Kelly run for 8 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
17.0%
D.J. Foster run for 15 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
17.7%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Jordan Simone return for 29 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4583% → 85%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
17.4%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+12
17.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 12 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
15.4%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 38 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0116% → 17%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
16.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 5 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
16.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 3 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
16.7%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:1784% → 84%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
16.0%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 19 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
15.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 27 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-13
15.8%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Addison Gillam for a loss of 13 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 23
OPP 48
0
16.0%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 23
OPP 48
0
16.2%
Matt Haack punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2717% → 17%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
16.8%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+13
16.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 13 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
16.5%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+2
16.4%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+10
16.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 10 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+5
16.5%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 50 yds , Damarious Randall returns for 5 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:5384% → 86%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
16.0%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
15.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Kody Kohl for 8 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+52
15.9%
D.J. Foster run for 52 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
15.6%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the Colo 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
15.6%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
15.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
14.0%
Zane Gonzalez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:5315% → 20%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
14.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+21
14.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 21 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
15.3%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete, PENALTY ARIZONAST holding 10 yards to the ARIZONAST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
15.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
15.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
15.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+3
15.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+26
15.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 26 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
15.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5680% → 79%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.6%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
19.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
20.3%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Matt Haack punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:5119% → 30%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
18.6%
Tony Jones run for 8 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
18.8%
Tony Jones run for 4 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
18.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 18 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
19.6%
Tony Jones run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
19.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
20.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+12
20.6%
Tony Jones run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
20.6%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
30.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 15 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2674% → 73%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.9%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
26.4%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
27.0%
Matt Haack punt for 57 yds, downed at the Colo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
27.2%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 9 Michael Adkins II fumbled, forced by Jordan Simone, recovered by ArzSt Dj CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5976% → 82%
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
24.3%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
24.4%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 5 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF
12 plays · 37 yds · 2:2720% → 19%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
19.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 8 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 15
-2
19.5%
Tony Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+10
18.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 10 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
19.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 2 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+12
18.2%
Sefo Liufau run for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
19.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 5
OWN 42
0
20.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
20.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
19.1%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3881% → 90%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.0%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
18.9%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
19.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 20 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
18.0%
Deantre Lewis run for 6 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+45
17.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 45 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:4012% → 14%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
11.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 8 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
12.0%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+55
11.9%
Christian Powell run for 55 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
13.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+4
12.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 4 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
12.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
13.9%
Will Oliver 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5489% → 96%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.4%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
11.1%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
11.3%
Kelly, Taylor pass incomplete, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference 8 yards to the ARIZONAST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
10.6%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
10.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
10.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
50
+50
4.1%
Taylor Kelly run for 50 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:066% → 4%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
5.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-2
5.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 26 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+4
5.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 4 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+11
5.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 11 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
4.4%
Donovan Lee run for 45 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
5.2%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Christian Sam for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+10
5.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+5
4.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to George Frazier for 5 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
4.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
4.6%
Christian Powell run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
4.2%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-1
4.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
2.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
2.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+4
2.4%
Taylor Kelly run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+53
2.4%
Matt Haack punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 49 COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:363% → 3%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
3.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
3.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
3.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Kyle Slavin for 4 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
3.2%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-16
3.2%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Antonio Longino for a loss of 16 yards to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 24
OWN 44
+12
2.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
2.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:2498% → 99%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
1.7%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
50
+3
1.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
1.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 3 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
1.6%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+3
1.4%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
1.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
1.2%
Matt Haack punt for 42 yds, downed at the Colo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 2:032% → 7%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+42
1.9%
Christian Powell run for 42 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
2.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
1.9%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete, PENALTY ARIZONAST roughing passer 15 yards to the ARIZONAST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
2.2%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
2.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-5
2.1%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+11
2.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 11 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
7.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 31 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2996% → 97%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
4.3%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Derek McCartney for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
4.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 7 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+11
3.1%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 11 yds to the Colo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:384% → 5%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
4.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
4.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
4.8%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
4.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
4.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
4.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
4.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 7 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
5.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
4.7%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Christian Sam return for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5698% → 99%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
2.4%
D.J. Foster run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+14
1.8%
D.J. Foster run for 14 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
1.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+1
1.5%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+1
1.5%
Cameron Smith run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 18
OWN 47
0
1.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
1.5%
Matt Haack punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
1.3%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 2 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+11
1.1%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 21 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke run for 9 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 8 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
1.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
1.2%
Jordan Gehrke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:39
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 15 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)
+8
TD · Q3 13:08
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q3 8:05
Taylor Kelly run for 50 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com