2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Husky Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:45 · Cyler Miles run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 12:18: Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick) — EWU win probability +12.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:05: Dwayne Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +10.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:46: Cory Mitchell 22 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick) — EWU win probability +17.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Cyler Miles run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Cyler Miles pass to Kasen Williams GOOD) — WASH win probability +24.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:14: Zach Wimberly 11 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick) — EWU win probability +11.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4EWU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 15:00WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 3, tiedClose callWent for it · 82.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.7%average punt
- Q1 10:19EWU 4th & 14 at WASH 17, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.517% to convertField goal16.6%80% to makePuntTheir call15.0%−1.6average punt
- Q1 0:39WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.7%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q2 12:06EWU 4th & 2 at WASH 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.3%57% to convertField goal17.7%−0.564% to makePunt15.3%−2.9average punt
- Q2 1:28EWU 4th & 4 at WASH 5, down 9Close callKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call17.9%−0.492% to makePunt12.8%−5.5average punt
- Q2 1:25WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 38, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snapGo for it78.1%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.8%average punt
- Q3 2:46EWU 4th & 3 at WASH 22, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.6%52% to convertField goal24.7%−0.972% to makePunt15.4%−10.2average punt
- Q3 2:41WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 29, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt60.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 6:04EWU 4th & 12 at WASH 32, down 14Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%−0.523% to convertField goal5.0%51% to makePunt4.0%−1.0average punt
- Q4 6:04EWU 4th & 11 at WASH 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%27% to convertField goal4.4%−0.227% to makePunt4.3%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7EWU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:34WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:25WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:48WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:16EWU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.3%97% to makeGo for two15.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:39EWU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.6%97% to makeGo for two17.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06EWU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.0%97% to makeGo for two22.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:21WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:37EWU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.6%97% to makeGo for two22.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:18EWU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.9%97% to makeGo for two30.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:05WASH Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:46EWU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.1%97% to makeGo for two35.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:54WASH Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick76.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call76.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:45WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%−0.497% to makeGo for two94.5%45% to convert
- Q4 3:14EWU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.5%97% to makeGo for two6.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1TD11 plays · 67 yds · 3:2687% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
87.2%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Kasen Williams for 19 yds to the EWash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+18
87.2%
Cyler Miles run for 8 yds to the EWash 21 for a 1ST down EASTERN WASH Penalty, Defensive holding (Rashad Wadood) to the EWash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-4
87.2%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for a loss of 4 yards to the EWash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD3 plays · 22 yds · 1:0287% → 88%
EWUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
WASHDrive 5TD3 plays · 66 yds · 0:5288% → 90%
EWUDrive 6TD9 plays · 89 yds · 2:2211% → 12%
Q1 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+30
89.3%
Vernon Adams Jr run for 15 yds to the EWash 32 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the EWash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
89.5%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Quincy Forte for 6 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
87.8%
Cooper Kupp 41 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7FG11 plays · 59 yds · 2:5289% → 89%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
88.6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to John Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 20Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-5
88.1%
Cyler Miles run for 10 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+25
88.6%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Deontae Cooper for 25 yds to the EWash 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 8TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:2512% → 14%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
88.3%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 15 yds to the EWash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
88.6%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Quincy Forte for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
85.6%
Kendrick Bourne 33 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q1 0:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Korey Durkee punt for 36 yds , Cooper Kupp returns for no gain to the EWash 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 10TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5415% → 17%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
85.1%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 3 yds to the EWash 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+18
85.5%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Quincy Forte for 18 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
85.3%
Vernon Adams Jr pass incomplete to Zach Wimberly, broken up by Budda BakerSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+26
82.7%
Cooper Kupp 26 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4583% → 87%
EWUDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4415% → 19%
Q2 11:21
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+7
85.6%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Quincy Forte for 7 yds to the EWash 31Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+15
85.8%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Nic Sblendorio for 15 yds to the EWash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 6
50
+5
86.0%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 5 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
86.0%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Mario Brown for 15 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
80.8%
Cory Mitchell 28 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD6 plays · 63 yds · 1:1883% → 86%
Q2 6:11
2ND & 2
OWN 2
+2
86.0%
Dwayne Washington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 14FG15 plays · 65 yds · 4:4315% → 17%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
84.9%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Quincy Forte for 4 yds to the EWash 34Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
84.7%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 7 yds to the EWash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-6
86.1%
Vernon Adams Jr sacked by Danny Shelton for a loss of 6 yards to the EWash 30 EASTERN WASH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+21
86.3%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Nic Sblendorio for 21 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.4%
Vernon Adams Jr pass incomplete to Cooper Kupp, broken up by John TimuSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
84.7%
Vernon Adams Jr pass incomplete to Kendrick Bourne, broken up by Marcus PetersSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
85.5%
Jr,Vernon Adams sacked for loss of 11 yards to the WASH21 (Kikaha, Hau'oli), PENALTY WASH offside defense (Kikaha, Hau'oli) 5 yards to the WASH5, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
EWUDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4222% → 35%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+16
78.3%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 16 yds to the EWash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+23
80.1%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 23 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+20
78.1%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Blair Bomber for 20 yds to the Wash 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
65.5%
Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD14 plays · 70 yds · 4:0471% → 80%
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+20
73.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 20 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
70.9%
Cyler Miles pass complete to DiAndre Campbell for 4 yds to the EWash 19Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 4
+4
80.4%
Dwayne Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 19TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1925% → 38%
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
75.8%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 10 yds to the EWash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.8%
Vernon Adams Jr pass incomplete to Quincy Forte, broken up by Marcus PetersSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+8
80.0%
Vernon Adams Jr sacked by Shaq Thompson for a loss of 7 yards to the EWash 29 WASHINGTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marcus Peters) to the EWash 44Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
79.5%
Jr,Vernon Adams sacked for loss of 6 yards to the EWU38 (Hudson, Andrew), PENALTY WASH offside defense (Feeney, Travis) 5 yards to the EWU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
79.5%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Zach Wimberly for 17 yds to the Wash 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+22
61.8%
Cory Mitchell 22 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD10 plays · 48 yds · 2:4769% → 88%
Q3 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
68.9%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 10 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
65.2%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 11 yds to the EWash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 0
OWN 8
+3
64.0%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 3 yds to the EWash 5Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 5
+5
88.2%
Cyler Miles run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Cyler Miles pass to Kasen Williams GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 21FUMBLE7 plays · 56 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
79.5%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Mario Brown for 8 yds to the EWash 36Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
81.1%
Vernon Adams Jr run for 4 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (Andrew Hudson) to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
81.1%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 10 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+19
79.7%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Terence Grady for 16 yds Terence Grady fumbled, forced by John Timu, recovered by Wash Travis Feeney , return for 19 yds to the Wash 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22TD13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0289% → 96%
EWUDrive 23TD19 plays · 80 yds · 4:225% → 15%
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
95.1%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, false start (Kendrick Bourne) to the EWash 15Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+19
95.2%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 19 yds to the EWash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
95.2%
Vernon Adams Jr sacked by Hau'oli Kikaha for a loss of 6 yards to the EWash 28Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+5
95.2%
Jr,Vernon Adams pass incomplete to Bomber,Blair, PENALTY WASH offside defense (Littleton, Cory) 5 yards to the EWU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-1
95.6%
Vernon Adams Jr sacked by Danny Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the EWash 32Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+13
96.5%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 13 yds to the EWash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
96.2%
Vernon Adams Jr sacked by Danny Shelton for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 43Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 11
OPP 44
+21
96.6%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 21 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
96.8%
Jr,Vernon Adams sacked for loss of 1 yard to the WASH36 (Qualls, Elijah;Finau, Jarett), PENALTY WASH holding (Timu, John) 10 yards to the WASH25, 1ST DOWN EWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.6%
Vernon Adams Jr pass incomplete to Cooper Kupp, broken up by Kevin KingSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
96.8%
Vernon Adams Jr pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 4 yds to the Wash 21 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (Danny Shelton) to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
85.4%
Zach Wimberly 11 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24END OF GAME8 plays · 17 yds · 0:5295% → 95%
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+8
95.5%
Cyler Miles pass complete to Darrell Daniels for 8 yds to the EWash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Cyler Miles run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Cyler Miles pass to Kasen Williams GOOD)
+24.2
TD · Q3 2:46
Cory Mitchell 22 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)
-17.7
TD · Q3 12:18
Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Roldan Alcobendas Kick)
-12.5