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USC

USC 13 at Stanford 10

STAN
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:22 · Kris Albarado punt for 49 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 44 yds to the USC 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense+2.2Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: Patrick Skov run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK) — STAN win probability +9.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:53: Andre Heidari 25 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +8.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:21: Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the USC 37 — USC win probability +10.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:30: Andre Heidari 53 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +26.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 26 — USC win probability +23.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:56STAN 4th & 20 at USC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:46STAN 4th & 22 at USC 29, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%
    58% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:19USC 4th & 8 at USC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:05USC 4th & 30 at STAN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:11STAN 4th & 10 at USC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:22USC 4th & 6 at USC 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:13STAN 4th & 3 at USC 9, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%−0.8
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:00USC 4th & 8 at USC 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:25STAN 4th & 1 at USC 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−3.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−14.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:53USC 4th & 1 at STAN 7, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%−4.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−16.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:24USC 4th & 5 at STAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−2.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:00STAN 4th & 13 at USC 32, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.9 ptsPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−3.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:30USC 4th & 5 at STAN 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%−2.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−8.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:26USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:45STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 37 yds · 5:5762% → 61%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
61.5%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Johnny Caspers) to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+11
61.4%
Kelsey Young run for 11 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
61.5%
Kelsey Young run for 2 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
61.5%
Ty Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
61.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 6 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+14
61.8%
Remound Wright run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
61.9%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the USC 37, USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Claude Pelon) to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
62.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-9
62.1%
Ty Montgomery run for 1 yd to the USC 20 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrus Peat) to the USC 30Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 18
OPP 30
-14
61.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Tripping (Johnny Caspers) to the USC 44Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 32
OPP 44
0
61.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Barry Sanders, broken up by Hayes PullardSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 32
OPP 44
+12
61.5%
Remound Wright run for 12 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 20
OPP 32
+49
61.0%
Jordan Williamson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:0439% → 44%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
61.0%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the USC 39 Javorius Allen fumbled, forced by Jordan Richards, recovered by USC Zach BannerSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
60.6%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 39Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+8
60.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
60.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 7 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-2
60.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
60.3%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
60.1%
Javorius Allen run for 12 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
59.7%
Javorius Allen run for 12 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
59.6%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+4
59.6%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+10
59.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 10 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.6%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:0457% → 54%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.0%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
57.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 10 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
57.6%
USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chris Hawkins) to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
57.4%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-5
57.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Devon Cajuste) to the USC 42Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
56.8%
Kelsey Young run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+25
55.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 25 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
57.4%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-16
57.2%
Team fumble, Ty Montgomery run for a loss of 16 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 22
OPP 29
0
55.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael Rector, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 22
OPP 29
0
54.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 29 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1646% → 45%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
54.2%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
54.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
54.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for no gain to the USC 22Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
54.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 55 yds, downed at the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:2654% → 63%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
53.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 21 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
54.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 9 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
55.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
55.2%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+21
54.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 21 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
55.9%
Remound Wright run for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+7
55.7%
Kelsey Young run for 7 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
55.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 0
OPP 4
+2
56.0%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the USC 2Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.8%
Team fumble, Kevin Hogan run for no gain to the USC 2Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.8%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
15 plays · 33 yds · 4:2042% → 42%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.9%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+13
57.9%
Javorius Allen run for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
57.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
56.1%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+11
56.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 11 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
55.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
55.2%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
55.3%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
54.8%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+10
54.0%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ronnie Harris) to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
53.6%
Cody Kessler sacked by A.J. Tarpley for a loss of 10 yards to the Stanf 35 USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cody Kessler) to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 20
OPP 35
-10
55.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Peter Kalambayi for a loss of 10 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 30
OPP 45
0
57.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Justin Davis, broken up by Noor DavisSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 30
OPP 45
0
58.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 2:3460% → 65%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.3%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
60.6%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
59.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 8 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
60.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 9 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+21
62.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 21 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Ty MontgomerySimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+19
64.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Eric Cotton for 19 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
63.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 8 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+1
63.9%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the USC 7Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-4
62.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-4 Yards) to the USC 11Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-5
62.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 16Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
62.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon Cajuste, broken up by Su'a CravensSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
65.2%
Jordan Williamson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0837% → 35%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
63.4%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
63.4%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 25Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
64.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+44
65.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 49 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 44 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0169% → 66%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
68.5%
Kelsey Young run for 14 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
68.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
68.5%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+3
67.4%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
65.6%
Jordan Williamson 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5037% → 34%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.5%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-5
65.9%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the USC 22Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
66.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ty Montgomery at the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 61 yds · 5:2066% → 67%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
66.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 26 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
68.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 12 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
69.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
69.9%
Ricky Seale run for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+8
68.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 8 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
70.2%
Kelsey Young run for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
70.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd to the USC 10Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
68.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 7 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
66.9%
Daniel Marx run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:1935% → 43%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
65.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 15 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
64.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+7
62.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 7 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+50
64.8%
Javorius Allen run for 50 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
59.2%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 17Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+3
59.7%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+7
60.6%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
52.1%
Andre Heidari 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
55.4%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 6
OWN 30
-15
57.5%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
64.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the USC 28 Kevin Hogan fumbled, recovered by USC Delvon SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:5746% → 48%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
54.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
51.6%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
52.6%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
50.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 15 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
49.3%
USC Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+1
50.8%
Soma Vainuku run for 1 yd to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+7
51.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+2
49.5%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
52.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:1059% → 55%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.0%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
59.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
61.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
62.5%
Remound Wright run for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+17
63.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 17 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
64.8%
Ty Montgomery run for 6 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-15
63.0%
STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Block (Remound Wright) to the USC 38Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 19
OPP 38
+6
58.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 13
OPP 32
0
55.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:1549% → 79%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
51.4%
Soma Vainuku run for 4 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+14
51.0%
Javorius Allen run for 14 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.7%
Javorius Allen run for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
46.1%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+29
49.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 29 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
43.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+1
42.7%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+1
43.2%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
21.4%
Andre Heidari 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:5631% → 30%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
31.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 19 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
34.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 6 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+16
34.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 16 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
35.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Ty Montgomery for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-3
37.3%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Leonard Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-1
29.9%
Kevin Hogan sacked by J.R. Tavai for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 26 Kevin Hogan fumbled, forced by J.R. Tavai, recovered by USC Scott Felix , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:30
Andre Heidari 53 yd FG GOOD
-26.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 26
-23.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:21
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 9 yds to the USC 37
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com