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UCD

UC Davis 0 at Stanford 45

STAN
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q3Q4TDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:51 · Ben Rhyne punt for 39 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+38.1Home team on offense+2.2Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:20: Colton Silveria run for 2 yds to the UCDav 10 — UCD win probability +8.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:45: Ricky Seale run for 1 yd to the Stanf 14 — STAN win probability +6.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:30: Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 4 — UCD win probability +12.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:21: Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43 — STAN win probability +10.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds for a touchback — STAN win probability +28.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UCD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:07UCD 4th & 17 at UCD 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59UCD 4th & 5 at UCD 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  3. Q3 12:51STAN 4th & 6 at UCD 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q3 3:34STAN 4th & 9 at UCD 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  5. Q4 8:28UCD 4th & 4 at UCD 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.6
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  6. Q4 6:51UCD 4th & 3 at UCD 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q4 2:55STAN 4th & 20 at UCD 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.6 ptsPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−7.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−5.6
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCDDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:430% → 1%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.6%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for no gain to the UCDav 16Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-1
99.6%
Justin Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 15Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-5
99.6%
UC DAVIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 10Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 16
OWN 10
-1
99.5%
Jermale Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 9Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 17
OWN 9
+60
99.5%
Colby Wadman punt for 51 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 60 yds for a TD, (Jordan Williamson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 2TD
10 plays · 0 yds · 3:511% → 1%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.5%
Jermale Jefferson run for 3 yds to the UCDav 13Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
99.5%
London Lacy pass complete to TJ King for 4 yds to the UCDav 17Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
99.5%
London Lacy pass complete to Chris Martin for 4 yds to the UCDav 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
99.4%
London Lacy pass complete to Chris Martin for 14 yds to the UCDav 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.4%
Justin Williams run for 3 yds to the UCDav 38Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
99.4%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 40Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
99.4%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Corey GalindoSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+14
99.3%
Colby Wadman punt for 41 yds , Ty Montgomery returns for 14 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3995% → 94%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
95.3%
Kelsey Young run for 12 yds to the UCDav 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
95.3%
Kelsey Young run for 4 yds to the UCDav 39 Kelsey Young fumbled, forced by Charles Boyett, recovered by StanfSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Ricky Seale run for no gain to the UCDav 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
94.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
94.2%
Ben Rhyne punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4PUNT
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:3814% → 15%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.6%
Colton Silveria run for 2 yds to the UCDav 10Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
84.8%
London Lacy pass intercepted Noor Davis return for no gain to the UCDav 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:1191% → 87%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
90.8%
Ricky Seale run for 1 yd to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
90.4%
Evan Crower pass complete to Jeff Trojan for 5 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+8
89.5%
Evan Crower pass complete to Jordan Pratt for 8 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
89.5%
Remound Wright run for 18 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
90.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.1%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
89.8%
Ricky Seale run for 1 yd to the UCDav 44Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
88.7%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Jeff TrojanSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
87.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Boyett at the UCDav 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0226% → 26%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
74.3%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 4Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
73.9%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 6Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+2
73.9%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 8Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+41
73.9%
Colby Wadman punt for 47 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 41 yds to the UCDav 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2184% → 79%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.9%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
84.6%
Evan Crower pass complete to Austin Hooper for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
50
+7
84.0%
Evan Crower pass complete to Ricky Seale for 7 yds to the UCDav 43Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+12
84.0%
Evan Crower pass complete to Greg Taboada for 12 yds to the UCDav 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
84.0%
Evan Crower pass complete to Austin Hooper for 27 yds to the UCDav 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.6%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.9%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the UCDav 1Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.4%
Evan Crower pass incomplete to Patrick SkovSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-1
79.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCDav Russell ReederSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0932% → 32%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
68.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Mark Martindale for 5 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
64.5%
Colton Silveria run for 2 yds to the UCDav 25Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
65.1%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Corey GalindoSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
67.7%
Colby Wadman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:4573% → 93%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
72.7%
Ryan Burns run for 20 yds to the UCDav 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
74.0%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the UCDav 38Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+13
72.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Barry Sanders for 13 yds to the UCDav 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
72.6%
Ryan Burns run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 30 Ryan Burns fumbled, recovered by Stanf Ryan Burns STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+2
68.9%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-7
65.0%
Ryan Burns sacked by Luke Wood for a loss of 7 yards to the UCDav 35Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 20
OPP 35
0
93.0%
Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:55
Ben Rhyne punt for 35 yds for a touchback
+28
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:30
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 4
-12.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:21
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com