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PRST

Portland State 14 at Oregon State 29

ORST
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scorePRST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:36 · Jonathan Gonzales 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+35.5Home team on offense−3.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:48: Paris Penn run for 58 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:38: Paris Penn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +4.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:07: Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 23 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +7.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:32: Garrett Owens 31 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:28: Garrett Owens 23 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 11PRST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:55PRST 4th & 3 at PRST 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04ORST 4th & 8 at PRST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:58PRST 4th & 5 at PRST 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:12ORST 4th & 5 at PRST 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01PRST 4th & 1 at ORST 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:31ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:36PRST 4th & 12 at ORST 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:58ORST 4th & 9 at PRST 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:52PRST 4th & 28 at PRST 5, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:53ORST 4th & 10 at PRST 35, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53ORST 4th & 30 at PRST 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:32ORST 4th & 8 at PRST 14, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:20PRST 4th & 5 at PRST 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:07ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 24, up 12
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:44ORST 4th & 3 at PRST 8, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:44PRST 4th & 6 at PRST 48, down 12
    Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:28ORST 4th & 4 at PRST 6, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−3.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:28PRST 4th & 13 at PRST 22, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PRST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:48PRST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:36ORST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:38PRST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:07ORST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-18
98.2%
Sean Mannion run for a loss of 18 yards to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 28
OWN 17
-5
98.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Caleb Smith) to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 33
OWN 12
0
98.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 33
OWN 12
+19
98.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 19 yds Connor Hamlett fumbled, forced by Sadat Sulleyman, recovered by OrgSt Josh MitchellSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Keith Kostol punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PrtSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
98.0%
Shaq Richard run for 1 yd to the PrtSt 18Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
98.0%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Thomas Carter for 6 yds to the PrtSt 24Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Alex ToureenSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+19
98.0%
Kyle Loomis punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 40 , Victor Bolden returns for 19 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1598% → 97%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
97.8%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+10
97.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 10 yds to the PrtSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+37
97.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 37 yds to the PrtSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
97.8%
Terron Ward run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 5Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.8%
Terron Ward run for 2 yds to the PrtSt 3Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
97.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the PrtSt 8Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
97.4%
Garrett Owens 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
97.4%
Shaq Richard run for 9 yds to the PrtSt 31Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
97.3%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Kasey Closs for 4 yds to the PrtSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.4%
Paris Penn rush for 5 yards to the PSU40, out-of-bounds (Noland-Lewis, C), PENALTY OSU offside defense (Murphy, Ryan) 5 yards to the PSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
97.3%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to Kasey ClossSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+16
97.4%
Kyle Loomis punt for 54 yds , Victor Bolden returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:0197% → 97%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
97.1%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-12
97.1%
Mannion, Sean pass complete to Mullaney, R. for 13 yards to the OSU37 (Xavier Coleman), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Mitchell, Josh) 12 yards to the OSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 20
OWN 12
0
97.1%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+50
97.0%
Storm Woods run for 50 yds to the PrtSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
97.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 11 yds to the PrtSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
97.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 15 yds to the PrtSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
97.2%
Victor Bolden run for 5 yds to the PrtSt 7Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
97.2%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 4Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
97.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 1 yd to the PrtSt 3Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-4
97.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Garrett Weinreich) to the PrtSt 7Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
96.6%
Garrett Owens 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 6TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:154% → 5%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
96.4%
Paris Penn pass complete to Alex Toureen for 12 yds to the PrtSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.3%
Shaq Richard run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 42Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+58
95.0%
Paris Penn run for 58 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 5:0695% → 96%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+29
95.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 29 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
95.6%
Victor Bolden run for 6 yds to the PrtSt 47Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+13
95.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 13 yds to the PrtSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for no gain to the PrtSt 34Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
95.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 14 yds to the PrtSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
95.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for a loss of 2 yards to the PrtSt 22Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+18
95.7%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 18 yds to the PrtSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
95.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Caleb Smith) to the PrtSt 9Similar
Q2 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.8%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 6Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.8%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.7%
Sean Mannion run for 6 yds for a TD PORTLAND ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 8TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 3:505% → 10%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
94.9%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Darnell Adams for 5 yds to the PrtSt 32Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Kieran McDonagh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+15
95.0%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Thomas Carter, PENALTY OSU roughing passer (Wynn, Dylan) 15 yards to the PSU47, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
94.6%
Shaq Richard run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-3
94.5%
Kieran McDonagh run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line Kieran McDonagh fumbled, recovered by PrtSt Kieran McDonagh , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 7
50
+6
94.7%
Darnell Adams pass complete to Kieran McDonagh for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+4
94.8%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Kasey Closs for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
94.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (D.J. Alexander) to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
94.3%
Shaq Richard run for no gain to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Lavonte Barnett) to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
94.3%
Shaq Richard run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-10
94.3%
Kieran McDonagh rush for 1 yard to the OSU10 (Grimble, Jalen), PENALTY PSU holding (Cam Keizur) 10 yards to the OSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 19
OPP 21
+10
94.5%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Alex Toureen (Nelson, Steven), PENALTY OSU holding (Murphy, Ryan) 10 yards to the OSU11, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.3%
Paris Penn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
92.0%
Victor Bolden run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
92.2%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb Smith, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
91.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Malik Gilmore, broken up by Brandon Brody-HeimSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
91.5%
Keith Kostol punt for 41 yds, downed at the PrtSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:2210% → 12%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Kasey Closs, broken up by Justin StrongSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
90.5%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Kasey Closs for 18 yds to the PrtSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.8%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to Alex ToureenSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+35
89.9%
Paris Penn run for 35 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
89.2%
Paris Penn run for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 16
OPP 28
0
89.6%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to Alex ToureenSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 16
OPP 28
+4
90.1%
Paris Penn run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
88.5%
Jonathan Gonzales 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 1:3689% → 88%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.3%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
89.9%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
89.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 14 yds to the PrtSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
90.6%
Storm Woods run for 14 yds to the PrtSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
90.2%
Sean Mannion sacked by Brandon Brody-Heim and Sadat Sulleyman for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 35Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+2
89.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 2 yds to the PrtSt 33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+50
88.4%
Garrett Owens 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Darnell Adams pass intercepted Tyrequek Zimmerman return for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:5289% → 89%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
89.3%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
89.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 7 yds to the PrtSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
89.7%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the PrtSt 43Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+18
89.8%
Storm Woods run for 18 yds to the PrtSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
90.2%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 21Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
90.2%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 18Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+9
89.6%
Mannion, Sean pass incomplete to Smith, Caleb, dropped pass, PENALTY PSU roughing passer (Sadat Sulleyman) 9 yards to the PSU9, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.2%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 14:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor Hamlett, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
89.3%
Garrett Owens 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
88.4%
Shaq Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 22Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-11
88.6%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Kasey Closs, PENALTY PSU personal foul (Kyle Smith) 11 yards to the PSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 22
OWN 11
-6
88.7%
Kieran McDonagh sacked by Bud Delva for a loss of 6 yards to the PrtSt 5 PORTLAND ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 28
OWN 5
0
89.3%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Shaq RichardSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 28
OWN 5
+10
89.7%
Kyle Loomis punt for 40 yds , Victor Bolden returns for 10 yds to the PrtSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · -3 yds · 0:3690% → 87%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
90.0%
Victor Bolden run for 5 yds to the PrtSt 30Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
89.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, substitution infraction (Rahmel Dockery) to the PrtSt 35Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
89.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor Hamlett, broken up by Jeremy LutaliSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
88.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+17
87.1%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 17 yds to the PrtSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
89.5%
Ward, Terron rush for 3 yards to the PSU15 (Michael Doman), PENALTY OSU holding (Harlow, Sean) 10 yards to the PSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
89.3%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 20
OPP 28
-10
88.8%
Sean Mannion sacked by Michael Doman for a loss of 10 yards to the PrtSt 38Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 30
OPP 38
0
87.7%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 30
OPP 38
0
86.6%
Keith Kostol punt for 37 yds, downed at the PrtSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
85.5%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Darnell Adams, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Johnson, Jabral) 15 yards to the PSU16, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
85.1%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Kasey Closs for 12 yds to the PrtSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.7%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Darnell AdamsSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
85.3%
Shaq Richard run for 2 yds to the PrtSt 30Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-5
85.7%
Shaq Richard run for a loss of 5 yards to the PrtSt 23 Shaq Richard fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Michael DoctorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
93.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 23 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 18INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
92.4%
Rey Vega run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 28Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+28
92.1%
Kieran McDonagh pass intercepted Tyrequek Zimmerman return for 28 yds to the PrtSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5394% → 95%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
93.5%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Caleb Smith for 2 yds to the PrtSt 14Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
93.5%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Terron WardSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
93.1%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Connor HamlettSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
94.8%
Garrett Owens 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:027% → 7%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
93.5%
Rey Vega run for 2 yds to the PrtSt 31Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
93.3%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Darnell Adams for 3 yds to the PrtSt 34Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Kasey ClossSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
93.5%
Kyle Loomis punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
94.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Kellen Clute for 9 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
94.4%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
94.1%
Keith Kostol punt for 45 yds , Kasey Closs returns for no gain to the PrtSt 26 Kasey Closs fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Zack RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1496% → 96%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
95.5%
Victor Bolden run for 8 yds to the PrtSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
95.5%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-8
95.5%
Sean Mannion sacked by Dame Ndiaye for a loss of 8 yards to the PrtSt 20 Sean Mannion fumbled, recovered by PrtSt Jake Woolley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.3%
Paris Penn run for 6 yds to the PrtSt 26Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
92.7%
Rey Vega run for no gain to the PrtSt 26 Rey Vega fumbled, forced by Michael Doctor, recovered by OrgSt Rommel MageoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5995% → 96%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
95.4%
Storm Woods run for 11 yds to the PrtSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
95.4%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 12Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
95.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
95.2%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 4 yds to the PrtSt 8Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
96.3%
Garrett Owens 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
93.6%
Paris Penn pass complete to Alex Toureen for 13 yds to the PrtSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
92.7%
Paris Penn run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 36Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
92.6%
Shaq Richard run for 8 yds to the PrtSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.3%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to Kasey Closs, broken up by Ryan MurphySimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
92.5%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to Shaq RichardSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+4
92.9%
Paris Penn run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 48Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
92.9%
Kyle Loomis punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:4296% → 99%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
96.4%
Terron Ward run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
96.4%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
96.6%
Terron Ward run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+12
96.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Connor Hamlett for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+45
96.8%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Terron Ward for 45 yds to the PrtSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
96.9%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
97.4%
Victor Bolden run for 6 yds to the PrtSt 6Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
97.4%
Sean Mannion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden, broken up by Anthony McNicholsSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
98.5%
Garrett Owens 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.2%
Paris Penn run for a loss of 3 yards to the PrtSt 22Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
97.3%
Paris Penn pass incomplete to Darnell AdamsSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
97.3%
Kyle Loomis punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden at the OrgSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
98.5%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
98.6%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
98.6%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.6%
Sean Mannion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
99.1%
Terron Ward run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.1%
Terron Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+9
99.1%
Terron Ward run for 9 yds to the PrtSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:07
Sean Mannion pass complete to Storm Woods for 23 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 5:38
Paris Penn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)
-4.2
FG · Q3 3:32
Garrett Owens 31 yd FG GOOD
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com