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SDAK

South Dakota 13 at Oregon 62

ORE
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadSDAK aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreSDAK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:56 · Miles Bergner punt for 31 yds , Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for no gain to the Oregn 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+45.7Home team on offense+7.8Score differential+2.6Garbage-time factor+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:41: Royce Freeman 26 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:36: Trevor Bouma 3 Yd Run (Miles Bergner Kick) — SDAK win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:14: Marcus Mariota 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider PAT blocked) — ORE win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:41: Miles Bergner punt for 48 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 20 — SDAK win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:06: Ryan Saeger pass incomplete to Brandt Van Roekel — SDAK win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SDAK made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 9:02SDAK 4th & 3 at ORE 30, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23SDAK 4th & 3 at SDAK 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:56SDAK 4th & 20 at SDAK 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:15ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26SDAK 4th & 8 at ORE 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:42SDAK 4th & 1 at SDAK 33, down 22
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:16SDAK 4th & 14 at SDAK 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:17ORE 4th & 3 at SDAK 47, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:58SDAK 4th & 7 at SDAK 13, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:50SDAK 4th & 5 at ORE 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:41SDAK 4th & 5 at SDAK 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:06SDAK 4th & 13 at ORE 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SDAK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:26ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:58ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:11ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:41ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:57ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:36SDAK Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:14ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:58ORE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+18
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 18 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-5
99.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+62
99.7%
Dwayne Stanford 62 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Taylor Alie Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 2FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.7%
Trevor Bouma run for 1 yd to the SDako 38Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
99.7%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Josh Vander Maten for 9 yds to the SDako 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.7%
Trevor Bouma run for 6 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Kevin Earl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
99.7%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Eric Shufford Jr. for 10 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.6%
Trevor Bouma run for 4 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
99.6%
Trevor Bouma run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Riley DonovanSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
99.6%
Miles Bergner 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
99.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the SDako 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.6%
Byron Marshall 41 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:200% → 1%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
99.6%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Riley Donovan for 13 yds to the SDako 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.5%
Jasper Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 40Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+8
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Jasper Sanders for 8 yds to the SDako 48Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Jasper SandersSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Miles Bergner punt for 40 yds , Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for no gain to the Oregn 12 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
99.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 15 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 9 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+6
99.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 18 yds to the SDako 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 5 yds to the SDako 44Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the SDako 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
99.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 34 yds to the SDako 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Royce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 3:591% → 1%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.5%
Trevor Bouma run for 2 yds to the SDako 30Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Trevor Bouma run for no gain to the SDako 30Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+10
99.5%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SDako 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Drew PotterSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Riley Donovan for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.5%
Trevor Bouma run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 49Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-9
99.4%
Kevin Earl sacked by Tyson Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the SDako 40Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Riley DonovanSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Miles Bergner punt for 31 yds , Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for no gain to the Oregn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.4%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+18
99.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds , Jasper Sanders returns for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 8FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:421% → 1%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+16
99.4%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Riley Donovan for 16 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
99.3%
Jordan Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+13
99.3%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Eric Shufford Jr. for 13 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.3%
Trevor Bouma run for 12 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-5
99.3%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, False Start (Drew Potter) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+12
99.3%
Kevin Earl run for 12 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.2%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Riley DonovanSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
99.2%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, False Start (Trevor Bouma) to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Kevin Earl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.1%
Miles Bergner 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-5
99.2%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the SDako 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
99.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 9 yds to the SDako 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 9 yds to the SDako 34Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+8
99.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the SDako 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.6%
Royce Freeman 26 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.5%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Jordan Roberts for 7 yds to the SDako 31Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
99.5%
Jordan Roberts run for 2 yds to the SDako 33Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Kevin Earl run for no gain to the SDako 33Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Miles Bergner punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
99.6%
Byron Marshall run for 53 yds Byron Marshall fumbled, recovered by SDakoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
99.5%
Trevor Bouma run for 20 yds to the SDako 40 Trevor Bouma fumbled, recovered by Oregn Dior MathisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the SDako 34Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the SDako 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 17 yds to the SDako 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Byron Marshall 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:100% → 1%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
99.8%
Jasper Sanders run for 45 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Trevor Bouma run for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Jasper SandersSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Trevor Bouma for 9 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
99.9%
Jasper Sanders run for 16 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Trevor Bouma 3 Yd Run (Miles Bergner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 11 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 14 yds to the SDako 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.6%
Byron Marshall run for 4 yds to the SDako 45Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 7 yds to the SDako 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 12 yds to the SDako 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
99.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 25 yds to the SDako 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Marcus Mariota 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jordan Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDako 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:281% → 0%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
99.1%
Jordan Roberts run for 13 yds to the SDako 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
99.9%
Kevin Earl sacked by Alex Balducci for a loss of 4 yards to the SDako 28Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Eric Shufford Jr.Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Miles Bergner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Charles Nelson for 8 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the SDako 49Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the SDako 48Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Charles Nelson) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 6 yds to the SDako 47Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jasper Sanders at the SDako 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 19PUNT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:120% → 0%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
99.9%
Trevor Bouma run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 9Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Eric Shufford Jr. for no gain to the SDako 9Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+4
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Trevor Bouma for 4 yds to the SDako 13Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+50
99.9%
Charles Nelson 50 Yd Punt Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 20TD
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Aaron Ramsey for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.9%
Trevor Bouma run for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Jasper Sanders run for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+9
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass complete to Trevor Bouma for 9 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Trevor Bouma run for 5 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Jasper SandersSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl run for no gain to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Kevin Earl pass incomplete to Josh Vander MatenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21DOWNS TD
16 plays · 49 yds · 4:09100% → 100%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Byron Marshall for 12 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for 11 yds to the SDako 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrell Crosby) to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Johnathan Loyd for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+28
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 28 yds to the SDako 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for 14 yds to the SDako 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
99.9%
Byron Marshall run for 2 yds to the SDako 13Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Devon Allen for 5 yds to the SDako 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDako 13Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+9
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Byron Marshall for 9 yds to the SDako 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Pharaoh Brown 4 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 22TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:330% → 1%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Jasper Sanders run for 2 yds to the SDako 25Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Ryan Saeger pass complete to Riley Donovan for 3 yds to the SDako 28Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Ryan Saeger pass incomplete to Eric Shufford Jr.Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 5
OWN 28
-4
99.5%
Miles Bergner punt for 48 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT TD
10 plays · 5 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+11
99.5%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 11 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
99.5%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 24 yds to the SDako 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the SDako 24Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
99.5%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the SDako 18Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
99.5%
Kenny Bassett run for 4 yds to the SDako 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.5%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 5 yds to the SDako 9Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
99.5%
Kenny Bassett 9 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 24TD
22 plays · 80 yds · 8:541% → 3%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.5%
Khorey Kilgore run for 4 yds to the SDako 22Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
99.5%
Khorey Kilgore run for 3 yds to the SDako 25Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Ryan Saeger pass complete to Ben Kramer for 5 yds to the SDako 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.5%
Khorey Kilgore run for 4 yds to the SDako 34Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Khorey Kilgore run for 2 yds to the SDako 36Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+6
99.6%
Ryan Saeger run for 6 yds to the SDako 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.5%
Jordan Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDako 46 Jordan Roberts fumbled, recovered by SDako Jordan RobertsSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
99.5%
Ryan Saeger pass complete to Brandt Van Roekel for 8 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.5%
Khorey Kilgore run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-5
99.5%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+16
99.5%
Ryan Saeger pass complete to Brandt Van Roekel for 16 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
99.4%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Meinert) to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+9
99.5%
Khorey Kilgore run for 9 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 16
OPP 39
0
99.5%
Ryan Saeger pass incomplete to Ben KramerSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+30
99.5%
Ryan Saeger pass complete to Brandt Van Roekel for 30 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.3%
Khorey Kilgore run for 2 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.3%
Khorey Kilgore run for 5 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-11
99.5%
Ryan Saeger sacked by Juwaan Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
0
97.5%
Ryan Saeger pass incomplete to Brandt Van RoekelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25DOWNS
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
98.4%
Kenny Bassett run for 8 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:06
Ryan Saeger pass incomplete to Brandt Van Roekel
-1.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+1.6
TD · Q2 7:41
Royce Freeman 26 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com