2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreIDST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:40: Bubba Poole run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:15: Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 3 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK) — IDST win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:59: Travis Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:09: Devontae Booker run for 38 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:19: Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 26 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 6IDST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 13:18IDST 4th & 12 at IDST 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 11:57UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 38, tiedClose callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:12IDST 4th & 15 at IDST 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 8:57IDST 4th & 16 at IDST 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 6:42UTAH 4th & 11 at IDST 39, up 14Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.2%27% to convertField goal97.2%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call97.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:00IDST 4th & 9 at IDST 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 4:07IDST 4th & 10 at IDST 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 0:35IDST 4th & 2 at IDST 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 13:25UTAH 4th & 17 at UTAH 18, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%average punt
- Q3 6:31IDST 4th & 6 at IDST 29, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:03UTAH 4th & 12 at UTAH 47, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 0:51IDST 4th & 5 at UTAH 46, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%41% to convertField goal0.0%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:32UTAH 4th & 4 at IDST 48, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:05IDST 4th & 13 at UTAH 43, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.121% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.128% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:59UTAH 4th & 13 at UTAH 17, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:28IDST 4th & 14 at IDST 38, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:14IDST 4th & 4 at IDST 31, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IDST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:40UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:15IDST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.3%97% to makeGo for two2.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:59UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:09UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:40UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:46IDST Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:30UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:57UTAH Touchdown, up 41 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDSTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
Justin Arias sacked by Nate Orchard for a loss of 5 yards to the IdaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
Q1 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
99.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 3 yds to the Utah 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-4
98.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Xavier Finney for a loss of 4 yards to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-6
98.8%
Justin Arias sacked by Hunter Dimick and Nate Orchard for a loss of 6 yards to the IdaSt 15Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+17
98.8%
C.J. Reyes punt for 37 yds , Bubba Poole returns for 17 yds to the IdaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD3 plays · 35 yds · 0:2399% → 99%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
98.8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 13 yds to the IdaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 5TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:161% → 2%
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
98.7%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 13 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
98.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 10 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 25
OPP 28
+21
98.6%
Daniel McSurdy run for 14 yds to the Utah 14 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the Utah 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
98.6%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the Utah 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 3 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1298% → 98%
IDSTDrive 7MISSED FG15 plays · 62 yds · 4:502% → 2%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.2%
Justin Arias pass complete to Xavier Finney for 8 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
98.0%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 5 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
97.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Josh Cook for 6 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+28
97.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Aaron Prier for 28 yds to the Utah 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
97.8%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 6 yds to the Utah 9Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
97.7%
Justin Arias sacked by Nate Orchard for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD4 plays · 82 yds · 0:4298% → 99%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+37
97.8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 37 yds to the IdaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 7 yds · 2:582% → 2%
Q2 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
98.2%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 8 yds to the IdaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-2
98.1%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for a loss of 2 yards to the IdaSt 36Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+13
98.1%
C.J. Reyes punt for 53 yds , Bubba Poole returns for 13 yds to the Utah 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
98.2%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 9 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
98.3%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 2 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+13
98.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 13 yds to the IdaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 1 yds · 1:302% → 1%
Q2 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+46
98.9%
C.J. Reyes punt for 44 yds , Kaelin Clay returns for 46 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:431% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13FUMBLE9 plays · 62 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
99.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 13 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+20
99.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 20 yds to the IdaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+9
99.2%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 9 yds to the IdaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
99.2%
Troy McCormick run for 11 yds to the IdaSt 9 Troy McCormick fumbled, recovered by IdaSt Mitch BecksteadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q2 0:35
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
98.8%
C.J. Reyes punt for 45 yds , Kaelin Clay returns for no gain to the Utah 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD3 plays · 74 yds · 0:1199% → 100%
IDSTDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-8
99.7%
Kendal Thompson sacked by Austin Graves for a loss of 8 yards to the Utah 12Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
99.8%
Kendal Thompson sacked by Mitch Beckstead for a loss of 7 yards to the Utah 39Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+25
99.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 25 yds to the IdaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 18TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.8%
Justin Arias pass complete to Aaron Prier for 7 yds to the IdaSt 32 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IdaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+14
99.8%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 14 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.8%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+7
99.8%
Justin Arias pass complete to Xavier Finney for 7 yds to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:520% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Bubba Poole for 11 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 9 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Tim Patrick for 9 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 12
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Tom Hackett punt for 51 yds , Sage Burmeister returns for 1 yd to the IdaSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 51 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q3 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the IdaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Josh Cook for 6 yds to the IdaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for no gain to the IdaSt 49Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
C.J. Reyes punt for 36 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 6 yds to the Utah 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
IDSTDrive 23PUNT13 plays · 51 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q4 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 11 yds to the IdaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+19
99.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 19 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
99.9%
IDAHO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terrence Carey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Daniel McSurdy for 2 yds to the Utah 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 8:59
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Tom Hackett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sage Burmeister at the IdaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:500% → 0%
UTAHDrive 26TD14 plays · 76 yds · 5:13100% → 100%
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Brandon Cox pass complete to Dominique Hatfield for 9 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Brandon Cox pass complete to Kaelin Clay for 5 yds to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
100.0%
Brandon Cox pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 2 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 27TD5 plays · 0 yds · 1:280% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 28PUNT1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:09
Devontae Booker run for 38 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 0:19
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 26 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 5:15
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 3 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)
-0.3