2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:15 · Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Brian Hill
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:25: Shaun Wick run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK) — WYO win probability +9.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 10:07: Brian Hill run for 23 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK) — WYO win probability +19.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:37: Romell Jordan run for 15 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +17.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:08: Stuart Williams 29 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +12.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:53: Stuart Williams kickoff for 62 yds , Carlos Wiggins return for 97 yds for a TD, (J. Pressley Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNM win probability +22.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 42, tiedClose callPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it67.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:30WYO 4th & 14 at UNM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.219% to convertField goalTheir call33.7%51% to makePunt33.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:50WYO 4th & 15 at UNM 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snapGo for it31.7%−1.216% to convertField goalTheir call32.8%64% to makePunt29.7%−3.1average punt
- Q2 5:19UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 21, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it64.8%−1.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.0%average punt
- Q2 0:31WYO 4th & 15 at UNM 15, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snapGo for it30.8%−1.815% to convertField goalTheir call32.6%83% to makePunt28.1%−4.5average punt
- Q3 2:08WYO 4th & 10 at UNM 12, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snapGo for it34.2%−2.125% to convertField goalTheir call36.3%86% to makePunt23.2%−13.1average punt
- Q3 1:53WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.2%−1.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at WYO 43, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.4%70% to convertField goal73.6%−5.828% to makePunt75.0%−4.4average punt
- Q4 13:41WYO 4th & 1 at UNM 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.0%71% to convertField goal24.9%−5.142% to makePunt24.1%−6.0average punt
- Q4 13:41WYO 4th & 22 at UNM 47, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it23.7%−3.98% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q4 6:57UNM 4th & 2 at WYO 12, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snapGo for it86.6%56% to convertField goalTheir call84.5%−2.186% to makePunt73.5%−13.2average punt
- Q4 6:57WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 19, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q4 3:24UNM 4th & 3 at WYO 46, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 89.8% before the snapGo for it90.3%52% to convertField goal87.9%−2.423% to makePuntTheir call89.1%−1.2average punt
- Q4 3:15WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 37, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.3%−3.5average punt
- Q4 1:03UNM 4th & 2 at WYO 29, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.4%57% to convertField goal94.2%−0.258% to makePunt92.0%−2.4average punt
- Q4 0:59WYO 4th & 4 at UNM 4, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.9%40% to convertField goal8.1%−17.893% to makePunt5.0%−20.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 5:35UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.4%97% to makeGo for two67.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:23WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.2%97% to makeGo for two36.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:13UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:11UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.1%97% to makeGo for two74.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:25WYO Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.3%97% to makeGo for two31.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:07WYO Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.9%97% to makeGo for two53.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:37UNM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.0%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:53UNM Touchdown, up 4 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick71.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call71.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+6
70.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 6 yds to the NMex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG11 plays · 48 yds · 4:4730% → 31%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
70.4%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the Wyom 21 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
70.4%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 10 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
70.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 10 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
70.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 11 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-7
70.3%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Nik D'Avanzo for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 61 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:30
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+39
69.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 39 yds Jeric Magnant fumbled, forced by William Tutein, recovered by Wyom Blair BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4INT TD3 plays · 8 yds · 1:2531% → 29%
Q1 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+19
70.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass intercepted for a TD Cranston Jones return for 19 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:0630% → 35%
Q1 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+10
70.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 10 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
69.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+15
69.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Brian Hill for 15 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
65.4%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 25 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
69.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 75 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7MISSED FG16 plays · 59 yds · 7:2030% → 31%
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
69.9%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 8 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+18
68.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Brian Hill for 18 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.2%
Brian Hill run for 10 yds to the NMex 29 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+16
68.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Eric Nzeocha for 16 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-5
68.3%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Tevin Newman for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD2 plays · 73 yds · 0:3969% → 77%
WYODrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4624% → 34%
Q2 9:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
76.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 14 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Devonta Tabannah) to the Wyom 30Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
75.4%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Nik D'Avanzo and Brett Bowers for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
WYODrive 11FG13 plays · 71 yds · 2:4931% → 32%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
69.0%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by SaQwan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+32
69.0%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 32 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
67.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Drew Van Maanen for 23 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12INT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0971% → 72%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
70.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jhurell Pressley for 13 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
69.0%
PENALTY NM holding off-setting, PENALTY WY face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.9%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted, touchback. Tim Kamana return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13TD12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4833% → 57%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by SaQwan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+26
68.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 26 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+22
65.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 22 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2551% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15FG13 plays · 63 yds · 5:2935% → 51%
Q3 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
65.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Eric Nzeocha for 6 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+29
62.1%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 29 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+16
61.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 16 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-1
61.6%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Kimmie Carson for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 7 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3481% → 79%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jhurell Pressley for no gain to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0031% → 27%
Q4 13:41
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+11
70.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Brian Hill for 11 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-12
65.0%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Brett Bowers for a loss of 12 yards to the NMex 47 WYOMING Penalty, intentional grounding (Colby Kirkegaard) to the NMex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20MISSED FG6 plays · 68 yds · 3:2883% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q4 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
77.9%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by David Guthrie for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0288% → 90%
Q4 3:24
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+10
89.7%
Zack Rogers punt for 35 yds , Jalen Claiborne returns for 10 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
84.9%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Brian Hill for 13 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 1 yds · 0:5695% → 96%
Q4 1:03
4TH & 2
OPP 29
-7
95.6%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 36 Lamar Jordan fumbled, recovered by NMex Teriyon GipsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 60 yds · 0:0010% → 14%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
89.8%
KIRKEGAARD, C. pass incomplete to HOLLISTER,Jacob, PENALTY NM pass interference (LANGFORD, Ryan) 15 yards to the NM49, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
88.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Kimmie CarsonSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+44
89.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 44 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:53
Stuart Williams kickoff for 62 yds , Carlos Wiggins return for 97 yds for a TD, (J. Pressley Run For Two-point Conversion)
+22.4
TD · Q3 10:07
Brian Hill run for 23 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
-19
TD · Q3 7:37
Romell Jordan run for 15 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
+17.1