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NEV

Nevada 49 at UNLV 27

UNLV
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:31 · Logan Yunker punt for 41 yds , Richy Turner returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior−16.0Home team on offense+6.4Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:33: Devonte Boyd 24 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Jonathan Leiva Kick) — UNLV win probability +6.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Richy Turner 18 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +13.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:33: Jerico Richardson 12 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +12.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:08: Kendall Brock 3 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +17.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:15: Lenny Jones 32 Yd Interception Return (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:08UNLV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:58NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:06UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:35UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:46NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:31UNLV 4th & 9 at NEV 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:31UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:15NEV 4th & 2 at UNLV 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−2.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00UNLV 4th & 5 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:00UNLV 4th & 6 at NEV 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:58NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 42, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:22UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:50NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 41, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:52UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 13, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:25NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:52UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:31NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:33NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:08NEV Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:15NEV Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:47NEV Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:51NEV Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:37UNLV Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1INT
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0225% → 27%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
24.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 6 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
24.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
25.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+6
25.4%
Blake Decker run for 6 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
25.7%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
25.8%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
25.8%
Marcus Sullivan run for no gain to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+11
26.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
26.5%
Blake Decker pass intercepted, touchback. Charles Garrett return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1674% → 75%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Don JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
26.5%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kenneth Penny) to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
26.3%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+15
26.4%
Don Jackson run for 15 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
26.7%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+8
26.6%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
25.0%
Cody Fajardo 25 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2326% → 31%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
26.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 18 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
26.4%
Marcus Sullivan run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
26.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 9 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
26.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 11 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
27.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+8
27.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 8 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
27.3%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+12
27.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 8 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.6%
Devante Davis 3 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Jonathan Leiva Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4771% → 69%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
29.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 8 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
29.1%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
29.5%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
29.1%
NEVADA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
30.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
30.2%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
30.6%
Alex Boy punt for 46 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for no gain to the UNLV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1531% → 33%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
31.2%
Keith Whitely run for 10 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
31.4%
Blake Decker run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
31.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+5
31.5%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sonny Sanitoa) to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
32.2%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
31.7%
Blake Decker run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
32.6%
Marcus Sullivan run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
32.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
33.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0068% → 66%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
32.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 17 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
31.9%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 28
-5
32.6%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Adam Khouri) to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+8
32.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 8 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+11
33.7%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Tajh Hasson return for 11 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:3736% → 43%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
36.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+18
36.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 18 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
43.3%
Devonte Boyd 24 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Jonathan Leiva Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3959% → 57%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
40.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 5 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
40.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
42.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+8
43.0%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 34 NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0644% → 47%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
44.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
44.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
44.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+9
45.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Jake Phillips for 9 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
45.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Marcus SullivanSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
45.9%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
46.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
46.7%
Jonathan Leiva 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5353% → 50%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
46.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 9 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
46.1%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.8%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
46.8%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
47.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+9
49.7%
Alex Boy punt for 37 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 9 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4450% → 49%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
50.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
50.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
49.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Shaquille Murray-LawrenceSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+13
48.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 41 yds , Richy Turner returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:5551% → 63%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
48.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
49.1%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+8
51.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 8 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
51.4%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
50.9%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+19
51.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 19 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
37.5%
Richy Turner 18 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:1943% → 45%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
43.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
44.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 10 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
45.3%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
45.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Keith WhitelySimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
44.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
50
0
44.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:1756% → 71%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
44.1%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+4
43.9%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
44.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 13 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
43.8%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
42.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
43.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
42.7%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
42.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+33
43.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 33 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
41.8%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
29.3%
Jerico Richardson 12 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:2038% → 42%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
37.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 8 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
38.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for no gain to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+15
38.4%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
40.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+23
41.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 23 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
39.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the Nevad 5Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
40.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.9%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
42.4%
Jonathan Leiva 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:3761% → 80%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
38.8%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
37.2%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+59
37.6%
James Butler run for 59 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.9%
Kendall Brock 3 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17INT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4522% → 13%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.8%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+32
13.4%
Lenny Jones 32 Yd Interception Return (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:2513% → 14%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
12.9%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
13.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 7 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+30
13.6%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 30 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
15.0%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+17
15.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 17 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
15.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
15.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Jake Phillips for 3 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
14.4%
Blake Decker pass intercepted, touchback. Nigel Haikins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3791% → 93%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
9.5%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
7.7%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
7.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
7.5%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
6.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+4
6.6%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 4 yds to the UNLV 17 Jay Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Nevad Tucker MelcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:0394% → 98%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
5.6%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-5
5.5%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+4
1.3%
Jerico Richardson 4 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 12
OWN 0
+15
1.6%
UNLV Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
2.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+8
2.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 40 yds , Richy Turner returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:2499% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
1.1%
Don Jackson run for 12 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
1.1%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+8
1.0%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
1.0%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+26
1.0%
Don Jackson run for 26 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
0.8%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Devin Combs 5 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:030% → 1%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
0.2%
Blake Decker run for 11 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
0.2%
Blake Decker run for 14 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+34
0.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 21 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ian Seau) to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
1.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:4099% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
0.6%
Nate McLaurin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-4
0.6%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+5
0.6%
Nate McLaurin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 8
OWN 46
-5
0.5%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
0.5%
Alex Boy punt for 43 yds, downed at the UNLV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
0.8%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
0.7%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
0.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 53 yds, downed at the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
0.4%
Nate McLaurin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
0.3%
Nate McLaurin run for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-2
0.3%
Nate McLaurin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:08
Kendall Brock 3 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-17.7
TD · Q2 1:31
Richy Turner 18 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-13.6
TD · Q3 9:33
Jerico Richardson 12 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com