Try the model
USU

Utah State 19 at Boise State 50

BOIS
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDSAFETYFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:17 · Rashad Hall run for 7 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:32: Kent Myers 9 Yd Run (Nick Diaz Kick) — USU win probability +3.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:05: Jay Ajayi 19 Yd Run (Dan Goodale PAT blocked) — BOIS win probability +4.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:05: Jalen Davis Defensive PAT Conversion — USU win probability +3.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 14:05: Jay Ajayi 8 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick) — BOIS win probability +5.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 4:39: Nick Diaz 46 Yd Field Goal — BOIS win probability +4.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:13USU 4th & 11 at BOIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:52USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:02USU 4th & 9 at USU 8, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:52BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 39, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:39USU 4th & 13 at BOIS 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:56BOIS 4th & 3 at USU 30, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00USU 4th & 6 at USU 34, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:08BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 48, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:02USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:49BOIS 4th & 2 at USU 42, up 22
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:39USU 4th & 2 at USU 10, down 22
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:49BOIS 4th & 1 at USU 49, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.5%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:02USU 4th & 7 at USU 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:48USU 4th & 2 at BOIS 42, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:37BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 45, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:26BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 39, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:11BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:24BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:32USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:05BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:05BOIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:47BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:49BOIS Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:21BOIS Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:3724% → 24%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
76.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 55 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
76.3%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
76.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+3
76.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to JoJo Natson for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
76.0%
Nick Diaz 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:5976% → 77%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
76.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
76.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+8
76.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
76.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
76.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
75.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 17 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
76.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 17 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
76.0%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 8 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
77.1%
Jay Ajayi 9 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:3277% → 80%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
77.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
77.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 6 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
77.2%
Thomas Sperbeck pass complete to Grant Hedrick for 24 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
77.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the UthSt 9Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
77.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 7 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.6%
Alec Dhaenens 2 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4021% → 25%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ronald Butler for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
79.0%
Kent Myers run for 8 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
79.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+13
79.2%
Kent Myers run for 13 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
79.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ronald Butler for 38 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
78.5%
JoJo Natson run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
75.5%
Kent Myers 9 Yd Run (Nick Diaz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:1177% → 79%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
77.0%
Grant Hedrick run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rashard Stewart) to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
77.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 11 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
77.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
77.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+13
77.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 13 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
81.9%
Jay Ajayi 19 Yd Run (Dan Goodale PAT blocked)Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
78.8%
Jalen Davis Defensive PAT ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0622% → 21%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
JoJo Natson run for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.0%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
78.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
78.6%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 33 yds , Donte Deayon returns for no gain to the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3079% → 85%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
78.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+41
78.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 41 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
79.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
79.0%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 5 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+6
78.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 6 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.6%
Jay Ajayi 8 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0185% → 88%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.7%
Thomas Sperbeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
85.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+14
84.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 14 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
85.2%
Ajayi, Jay rush for 5 yards to the UTAHST0, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Dhaenens, Alec) 10 yards to the UTAHST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+1
85.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-10
85.6%
Hedrick, Grant pass complete to Sperbeck, Thomas for 14 yards to the UTAHST0, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Henry, Marcus) 10 yards to the UTAHST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+24
88.1%
Thomas Sperbeck 24 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2320% → 15%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
80.0%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 4Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 13
OWN 4
0
84.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Jefferson CourtSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+4
85.0%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
85.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 56 yds, downed at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0088% → 88%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
88.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
88.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
87.6%
Sean Wale punt for 22 yds, downed at the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4815% → 8%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
85.5%
Hill, Joe rush for no gain to the UTAHST39, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Nance, Armand) 10 yards to the UTAHST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
84.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to JoJo Natson for 15 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
84.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
84.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-11
84.3%
Ronald Butler run for a loss of 11 yards to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 21
OPP 37
-5
85.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (JoJo Natson) to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 26
OPP 42
-2
86.7%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 28
OPP 44
+15
87.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 15 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
92.2%
Nick Diaz 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:2693% → 94%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 7 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
93.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
93.9%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Zach Vigil for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
94.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+11
94.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 11 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 13
OPP 40
0
94.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+10
94.5%
Hedrick, Grant pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the 50 yardline (Larsen, B.J.), PENALTY UTAHST holding (Green, Torrey) 10 yards to the UTAHST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
94.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
94.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:567% → 6%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
93.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Centers) to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
93.4%
Kent Myers run for 15 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
93.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Kamalei Correa for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+9
93.7%
Kent Myers run for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-2
93.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4195% → 95%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
95.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-7
95.2%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Frankie Sutera for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 14
OWN 48
0
95.0%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
94.8%
Sean Wale punt for 41 yds, downed at the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:566% → 5%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
94.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to JoJo Natson for 2 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+12
94.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 12 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.8%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
94.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
95.0%
Devonte Robinson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+47
95.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOISEST 38 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5996% → 96%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
96.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 1 yd to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
96.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
96.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
96.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
50
+4
96.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
96.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
96.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
96.4%
Grant Hedrick punt for 40 yds, downed at the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:003% → 3%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
96.7%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
96.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+9
96.9%
Kent Myers run for 9 yds to the UthSt 10 Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by UthStSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+4
96.8%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 52 yds , Bryan Douglas returns for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 3:5697% → 98%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
97.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 2
50
+1
97.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
97.5%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
97.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
97.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+9
98.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 9 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-13
98.2%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Ricky Ali'ifua for a loss of 13 yards to the UthSt 46 BOISE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Grant Hedrick) to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 23
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 23
OPP 46
-4
98.1%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Nick Vigil for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 27
50
+4
97.9%
Sean Wale punt for 36 yds , Ronald Butler returns for 4 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
98.0%
Hunt, LaJuan rush for no gain to the UTAHST18, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Turner, Antoine) 10 yards to the UTAHST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+2
98.2%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 2
OWN 36
-5
98.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Jentz Painter) to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:1198% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
98.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.8%
Jay Ajayi 62 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tyler Weese for 16 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+11
99.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ronald Butler for 11 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ronald ButlerSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-9
99.8%
Kent Myers sacked by Beau Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Beau Martin , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.8%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Travis Seefeldt for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+9
99.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+9
99.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 9 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
99.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 17 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 2 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+11
99.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 11 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jay Ajayi 1 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
50
+8
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 8 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Kennedy Williams for no gain to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Devan Demas run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jake HardeeSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Sean Wale punt for 54 yds, downed at the UthSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26SF
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.9%
Rashad Hall run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+8
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 8 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
99.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 16
OWN 6
-6
99.9%
Kent Myers sacked by Rondell McNair and Elliot Hoyte for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Jack Fields run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 2
50
+50
99.9%
Jack Fields run for no gain Jack Fields fumbled, forced by Nick Vigil, recovered by UthSt Daniel Gray , return for 50 yds, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Charles Bertoli run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Charles Bertoli run for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Charles Bertoli run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+1
100.0%
Sean Wale punt for 46 yds , Ronald Butler returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
100.0%
Rashad Hall run for 4 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Rashad Hall run for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+7
100.0%
Rashad Hall run for 7 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:05
Jay Ajayi 8 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)
+5.9
FG · Q2 4:39
Nick Diaz 46 Yd Field Goal
+4.9
TD · Q1 2:05
Jay Ajayi 19 Yd Run (Dan Goodale PAT blocked)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com