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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Air Force 27

AF
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:58 · Will Conant punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Preston Hodges at the ColSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior−2.9Home team on offense+3.0Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Garbage-time factor−1.3Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:27: Will Conant 33 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +8.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:09: Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +15.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:09: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 76 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:58: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +21.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Will Conant 39 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +29.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 8:51CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48AF 4th & 6 at AF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15CSU 4th & 7 at AF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:51CSU 4th & 14 at AF 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:27AF 4th & 8 at CSU 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:27CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:22AF 4th & 6 at AF 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:47CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:41CSU 4th & 20 at AF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:44AF 4th & 9 at AF 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:46CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 17 at AF 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−6.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:58AF 4th & 1 at AF 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.7 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−6.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:46AF 4th & 11 at AF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−5.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:44CSU 4th & 2 at AF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−5.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−8.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:24CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:51AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:06AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:09AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:09CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:58CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3666% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
34.5%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Connor Healy for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+22
34.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 22 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
34.5%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+11
34.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
34.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 31 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
34.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 6 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+5
34.5%
Dee Hart run for 5 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3335% → 38%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
34.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 47 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
35.2%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
35.2%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
35.2%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
35.2%
Garrett Brown run for 7 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
35.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.8%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
36.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
36.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
37.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 53 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 4 yds to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
37.3%
Shayne Davern run for 15 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.6%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-2
38.0%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
37.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
37.1%
Will Conant punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:5962% → 62%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.7%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+17
37.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 17 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
37.3%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+23
37.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 23 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
36.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 21 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
36.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
36.5%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
36.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles LovettSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
37.7%
Jared Roberts 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.6%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the AFA 36 Nate Romine fumbled, forced by Aaron Davis, recovered by ColSt Max MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1263% → 61%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
36.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles LovettSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
36.9%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+13
37.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 13 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
36.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles LovettSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
36.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
37.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
38.7%
Jared Roberts 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:4538% → 47%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
38.2%
Paco Solano run for 6 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
38.9%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
38.8%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
39.7%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
39.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
38.8%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
39.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 32 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
40.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
40.6%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
39.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
40.6%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.3%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
44.8%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Nick Fitzgerald for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 19 Garrett Grayson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
45.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Dee Hart, broken up by Justin DeCoudSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
45.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
46.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:0147% → 56%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
47.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
47.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 6 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
47.8%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
47.0%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
47.8%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
47.8%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
47.0%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
47.8%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
47.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+1
47.0%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
55.7%
Will Conant 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
54.4%
Dee Hart run for 22 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
52.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
52.9%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
53.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
54.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4357% → 58%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
56.5%
Devin Rushing run for 19 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
57.0%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
58.0%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
56.5%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
57.8%
Will Conant punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2642% → 40%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
58.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.8%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
60.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 54 yds, downed at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0058% → 61%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
58.2%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
59.2%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
58.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.5%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.1%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
59.2%
Devin Rushing run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
57.7%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
56.6%
Will Conant punt for 58 yds , Preston Hodges returns for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
59.2%
Dee Hart run for 2 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
59.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
58.6%
Dee Hart run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
56.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
58.5%
Garrett Grayson run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
57.4%
Garrett Grayson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+32
58.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 32 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
53.7%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-11
54.2%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Spencer Proctor for a loss of 11 yards to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 20
OPP 39
0
58.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
60.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
65.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
64.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+3
64.0%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.3%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
65.0%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Will Conant punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Preston Hodges at the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
63.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+3
62.1%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
62.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles LovettSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
63.0%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
64.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
65.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:1870% → 87%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
69.6%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
71.8%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
71.9%
Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
72.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
72.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Preston Hodges) to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
72.6%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
72.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+11
71.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 11 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
72.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-1
72.6%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 6Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+5
71.3%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:5316% → 28%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
83.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-4 Yards) to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 14
OWN 15
+2
83.9%
Garrett Grayson run for 2 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+7
84.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+76
71.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 76 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0377% → 76%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
76.9%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
76.4%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-7
77.5%
Nate Romine sacked by Cory James for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 21
-4
76.1%
Will Conant punt for 58 yds , Preston Hodges returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:1828% → 57%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+33
72.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
50
+15
67.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jordan Mays) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
65.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 10 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
65.0%
Dee Hart run for 9 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+8
65.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 8 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
65.0%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 9Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
65.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0053% → 55%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
54.4%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
54.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
55.6%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
55.5%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
56.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
55.1%
Will Conant punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Preston Hodges at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:0050% → 56%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
49.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Alex HansenSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
50.4%
Dee Hart run for 12 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
49.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles LovettSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
49.8%
Dee Hart run for 17 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
45.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 15 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
44.0%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
44.1%
Garrett Grayson pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for 9 yds to the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 52%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
59.4%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
57.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
54.8%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
52.1%
Will Conant punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Preston Hodges at the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:0851% → 53%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
48.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 4 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
49.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+7
50.8%
Garrett Grayson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
48.3%
Dee Hart run for 13 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
45.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
44.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
50
+4
42.9%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
43.0%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
42.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
46.9%
Dee Hart run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:3862% → 96%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
60.2%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+26
60.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 26 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
65.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+39
95.6%
Will Conant 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Will Conant 39 yd FG GOOD
+29.5
TD · Q4 10:58
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q3 3:09
Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com